Maybe this is really what the league wanted when the latest set of roughing rules went into place. Guys on defense play with kid gloves to avoid the 15 yard penalties and more importantly to them, the big fines that come with them. As a result, thru four weeks we have NFL records for passing TDs, total TDs, and total points. Vegas totals imply that the scoring binge will continue into week five as there are five games on the main slate with projected totals of 50 or more (and two more that are not on the main slate). The Falcons-Steelers total is an unheard of 57.
With Kamara and Zeke off the main DraftKings slate this week, we have a smaller group of elite running backs to choose from and it seems like a week where you can grab two of the elite RBs and do well with lower-priced wide receivers. I am narrowing in on two of the three – Gurley, Gordon, and Barkley along with Yeldon (looks like a plug and play at his price point with Fournette out).
The wild card right now is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the USF Bull now in a starting WR spot for Green Bay with Cobb out and possibly Allison as well. He is a big-time salary-saver at $3,300 and has big play capability.
While I whiffed badly going with a Giants stack (a mistake I will not make again as long as Eli is at QB) I expect better results in week five starting with the list below:
| QB | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 6900 | Highest total of the week. Looks like shoot out |
| QB | Matt Ryan | ATL | 6600 | See Roethlisberger |
| QB | Jared Goff | LAR | 6500 | Still affordable even with red hot start |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 6200 | Low ownership this week vs Jacksonville |
| QB | Blake Bortles | JAX | 5500 | Will need to score to keep up with KC |
| QB | Joe Flacco | BAL | 5400 | Sneaky cheap having excellent season |
| RB | Todd Gurley II | LAR | 9400 | No Kamara or Zeke on main slate |
| RB | Melvin Gordon III | LAC | 8600 | Over 30 points in 3 of 4 in spite of losing touches to Ekeler |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 8000 | Doing it on the ground and thru the air |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | NYG | 7700 | 22-25 in all four games and there is more explosive plays out there |
| RB | Matt Breida | SF | 5700 | Arizona has not stopped anyone on the ground |
| RB | T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 5600 | Great spot for big score without Fournette |
| WR | Julio Jones | ATL | 8500 | On pace for 2000 yards and zero TDs – neither will happen |
| WR | JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 7500 | Hard to narrow in on prime Steelers-Falcons scorers |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | LAR | 7400 | Expect another big Rams game in the air – tough to pick the right WR |
| WR | Robert Woods | LAR | 6500 | That is why my cop out is to list all three |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 6300 | And you can’t leave Kupp off the list as he has the highest floor |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | ATL | 5800 | Almost feel like his price and Julio should be reversed |
| WR | Tyler Boyd | CIN | 5700 | Over 20 points in three straight with solid target share |
| WR | Sterling Shepard | NYG | 5600 | The pricing seems to dictate using at least two elite RBs and low end WRs |
| WR | Dede Westbrook | JAX | 4700 | Dede, Cole, and Moncrief not as prolific as Rams WRs, but they might be this week |
| WR | Taywan Taylor | TEN | 4000 | Great start after release of Matthews. Last time he will be at $4,000 |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | 3300 | Does not need to do much to earn $3,300 with Cobb out and maybe Allison too |
| TE | Zach Ertz | PHI | 6500 | Double-digit targets in all four but a steep price to pay |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | 6000 | Nice $500 discount from Ertz |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | 5400 | No dropoff with Beathard |
| TE | Jared Cook | OAK | 4800 | Two games over 30 |
| TE | Vance McDonald | PIT | 3700 | An inexpensive way to get a piece of the Steelers total |
| DST | Titans | TEN | 4000 | Everyone against the Bills must be considered |
| DST | Broncos | DEN | 3200 | Darnold making mistakes for Jets |
| DST | 49ers | SF | 3000 | Cardinals are offensively challenged even with Johnson |
| DST | Jaguars | JAX | 2800 | Jax is still Jax – can they be the team that stops Mahomes |
| DST | Ravens | BAL | 2800 | Nice discount against another rookie QB |
| DST | Vikings | MIN | 2300 | Price is very depressed. Did they get this bad? |
| MY CURRENT LINEUP | ||||
| QB | Blake Bortles | JAX | 5500 | |
| RB | Melvin Gordon III | LAC | 8600 | |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | NYG | 7700 | |
| RB | T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 5600 | |
| WR | Julio Jones | ATL | 8500 | |
| WR | Taywan Taylor | TEN | 4000 | |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | 3300 | |
| TE | Vance McDonald | PIT | 3700 | |
| DST | Ravens | BAL | 2800 | |
| 49700 |
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