As we reach the All-Star break, it’s time for a review of the first half of the crazy 2023. Let me sum it up in two words: Shohei Ohtani. OMG, this guy is a freak of nature. He’s also going to be the highest-paid player in baseball next season. You heard it here first – okay, maybe not. My prediction is that Ohtani will sign a contract north of $500 million.
Thomas Carannante of FanSided recently predicted a 12-year, $530 million contract with the Dodgers. My money is on the New York Mets to sign him since Steve Cohen seems to have an endless supply of money. Keep in mind that Mets general manager Billy Eppler signed Ohtani when he was the general manager of the Los Angeles Angels.
Let’s work with Carannante’s numbers since I hear that he’s a smart guy. Why would Ohtani (or any ballplayer) be worth $530 million? The largest contract in major league baseball history was signed by Mike Trout four years ago was a 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Angels. Trout has been called the best player in baseball, but he doesn’t pitch.
First, let’s look at Ohtani the hitter. He currently leads MLB with the highest OPS (1.045), the highest slugging percentage (.658) and home runs (31). Holy (expletive deleted), Batman! Now, let’s take a look at Ohtani the pitcher. He’s third in the league in strikeouts (132), fifteenth in WHIP (1.10) and top 25 in ERA (3.32). He’s also won seven games.
In conclusion, Ohtani the hitter is one of the best in baseball. And Ohtani the pitcher is pretty good, too. The best hitting comparison for Ohtani is Aaron Judge, who won the AL MVP award in 2022 and then signed a nine-year, $360 million contract ($40 million AAV), which is statistically the largest free agency deal since Trout’s deal was an extension.
The most notable pitching comparison for Ohtani would be Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million contract, which was also signed back in 2019. You also have the more recent Mets’ deals for Max Scherzer (three years, $130 million) and Justin Verlander (two years, $86.66 million). Ohtani is probably worth more as a pitcher than the latter two players.
Let’s take a look back at Ohtani’s month of June – perhaps the best ever by any player. In June, Ohtani posted a triple-slash of .394/.492/.952, and a 3.26 ERA in 30.1 innings pitched. It should go without saying that no one has ever put up a stat line quite like that before. Of course, no one else has been in a position to try. The Ohtani we saw in June is without equal.
Okay, Ohtani isn’t the only storyline in the first half. The Texas Rangers are in first place in the AL West, the Cincinnati Reds are in first place in the NL Central and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West. Arizona finished fourth in their division last year, while Texas was dead last and Cincinnati tied for last in their divison.
TEXAS RANGERS
Let’s start with the Rangers because I like them the best of the four, and I’m writing this column. Texas finished 68-94 in 2022 – 38 games behind the Astros. No one saw this coming, even though the Rangers signed Jacob deGrom and Corey Seager before the season began. Seager had had a real impact, but deGrom didn’t even make it out of April.
MARCUS SEMIEN
I didn’t want any part of Semien at his draft price. He went 22nd overall in TGFBI, and I thought that was crazy. I was wrong. At 32, Semien plays every day, sprays hits all over the field, runs the bases well and plays solid defense. He’s hitting .271, with 70 runs, 11 home runs, 56 RBI and nine stolen bases. He’s the best fantasy second baseman in the league.
ADOLIS GARCIA
While I was fading Semien at his ADP, I was jumping on Garcia in the fifth round. Garcia was on numerous bust lists at the beginning of the season because he strikes out a lot. Suffice it to say, that he’s returned value and then some. He’s hitting .262, with 69 runs, 23 home runs, 73 RBI and six stolen bases. He’s the third best outfielder based on those stats.
JONAH HEIM
Traded by the Orioles, Rays and A’s by age 26, Heim was signed by the Rangers. With an ADP near 250, he was taken late in the 17th round by Eric Cross in my league. Hats off to Mr. Cross because the Texas catcher is having a breakout season, outperforming J.T. Realmuto, Will Smith and Adley Rutschman. Only Sean Murphy has better numbers than Heim.
CINCINNATI REDS
If the Rangers were a surprise, the Reds were a total shock to baseball analysts and fans. No one thought they’d be relevant, even though they had a pipeline of great prospects when the season began. They lost 100 games in 2022, but they head into the break at 50-41. It’s possible that the wheels far off in the second half, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
ELLY DE LA CRUZ
It was going to be difficult for De La Cruz to exceed expectations when he was called up on June 6th. One of the most highly-regarded prospects in the past decade, De La Cruz finds a way to dazzle fans every time he takes the field. He’s batting .328, with 28 runs, four home runs, 16 RBI and 16 stolen bases in only 131 plate apperancces. The Reds infielder is unreal.
MATT MCLAIN
While expectations were high for De La Cruz, they were fairly low for McClain when he took the field for the first time on May 15th. Although he’s been overshadowed by De La Cruz, he’s been very good in his own right, posting a .301/.368/.512 line, 37 runs, seven homers, 29 RBI and seven steals in 213 at bats. He’s a bonafide five-category player.
JONATHAN INDIA
Affter being named NL Rookie of the Year in 2021, India had an injury-prone 2022 season, but he did put together a red-hot stretch from July to September in which he hit .306/.376/.505 across 52 games. With that in mind, I took India in the 12th round in TGFBI and have no regrets. He has scored 65 runs, homered 13 times, drove in 46 runs and stolen 12 bases.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Two years ago, Arizona finished the regular season with a 52-110 record. Diamondback fans knew they were trending in the right direction last year when they won 74 games, But no one predicted they would win the division this year. After all, the Dodgers won 111 games last year, and the Padres’ owner, Pete Seidler, had brought in a lot of free-agent talent.
CORBIN CARROLL
Carroll is on pace to join Mitchell Page (1977) and Mike Trout (2012) as the only rookies with at least 40 steals and a .900 OPS. Carroll wasn’t flying under the radar during draft season, and I was out when he was drafted 55th overall in TGFBI by Mark Northan. The latter got it right because Carroll finishes the first half as the best outfielder in baseball.
ZAC GALLEN
I had a chance to take Gallen in the fifth round, but I passed on him because of injury concerns. He did avoid injuries last year for the first time in his career, logging 31 starts across 184 innings. His 12 wins, 2.54 ERA and .091 WHIP warranted a fifth-round pick. He’s been just as good this year, with 11 wins at the break, a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
LOURDES GURRIEL, JR.
I’ve always liked Gurriell because he hits for a high batting average, but I didn’t draft him in 2023 because he only hit five home runs last year. As it turned out, a wrist injury that he played through was the reason. While playing second fiddle to Carroll, Gurriel has already gone deep for 15 home runs and 54 RBI in the first half. While maintaining a .267 BA.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
