Last week, I wrote about the Zero-RB strategy, where you don’t select a running back until at least the fourth round. The reason to employ this strategy is that it enables you to take a couple of wide receivers, a tight end, or a quarterback in the first three rounds. We’ll talk more about quarterbacks and tight ends in the coming weeks, but today it’s all about wide receivers.
If you’re not drafting wide receivers early, you’re missing out on an opportunity to build a championship-caliber team. Consider that the wide receiver position has delivered three of its six highest-scoring seasons in history in the past three years. Let me make it clear that this not just in total points (due to more games played) but also average fantasy points scored per NFL team.
This evolution of the wide receiver position is not lost on fantasy managers. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are No. 1 and No. 2 respectively at NFFC, where the high-stakes fantasy players make their bones. They are No. 1 and No. 3 respectively in overall The average draft position (ADP). NFFC is drafting six wide receivers in its collective Top 10, which is unprecedented.
What this means is that you draft two of the best wide receivers in football in the first two rounds – especially if your draft position is late (10-12). Imagine getting Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb as your WR1 and WR2? Or, how about Cooper Kupp and Amon-Ra St. Brown? This is possible as the rest of your league leans into running backs like they always seem to do.
Here’s another fun fact that I hope convinces you that 2023 is the year of the wide receiver. Entering the new season, there were 31 wide receivers with contracts averaging at least $10 million per year. There were only 10 running backs. A popular opinion is that running backs are imderpaid, but I believe that the free market system sets the value of products and services.
My point is that with elite wide receivers putting up historic fantasy point totals, not to mention some of the game’s most prolific all-time positional talents catching passes, it’s critical that you address the wide receiver position early in your draft. What follows is a brief summary of the top 10 pass catchers in the league and my case for spending at least one early pick to roster them.
NO. 1 – JUSTIN JEFFERSON, WR, MINNESOTA
The Vikings were desperate to get the ball to Jefferson last year, targeting him 184 times. That was more than any other receiver in football. He caught 128 of those passes. He led the NFL in catches and receiving yards in 2022, and he easily broke the NFL record for most receiving yards through three seasons, with 4,825 yards. He had a total of 324 receptions in his first 50 games.
NO. 2 – JA’MARR CHASE, WR, CINCINNATI
Chase is only the fourth player in NFL history to catch 20 or more touchdown passes and average at least 85 receiving yards in his first two seasons. And the Bengals star is only 23 and still getting better. Chase caught three more touchdowns in the last two years than Jefferson and eight were longer than 40 yards. He also has a better quarterback throwing him the ball.
NO. 3 – TYREEK HILL, WR, MIAMI
Hill showed no decline with the move from Kansas City to Miami. He was the WR3 in fantasy PPG, posting five weeks with 140 or more receiving yards. He led the league in deep targets while scoring nine total touchdowns (fourth). Hill amassed a ridiculous 31.6% target share, while ranking first in yards per route run. But he was only 40th among wideouts in red zone targets.
NO. 4 – COOPER KUPP, WR, LA RAMS
Fresh off a record-setting 2021 season, Kupp was on pace for another huge season before his injury in week 10. Heading into that game, he was averaging 8.3 catches and 90.2 yards per game. Last year he led all WRs in points per game (18.4) while commanding a target share of 31.3% before his injury. Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s health is a bigger concern in 2023.
NO. 5 – STEFON DIGGS, WR, BUFFALO
Diggs remains an elite wide receiver in the NFL recording three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions, 1,225 receiving yards, and eight receiving scores. He was the WR6 in fantasy PPG last year, while also finishing top-ten in target share, No. 4 in red zone targets and third in yards per. Diggs is one of just three receivers with 500 catches and 6,000 yards since 2018.
NO. 6 – CEEDEE LAMB, WR, DALLAS
Lamb is the clear No. 1 receiving option on one of the NFL’s best offenses, and the 24-year-old is a free agent next spring. Lamb finished with 107 receptions and 1,359 yards last year and was the WR7 in fantasy. He was seventh in target per route run rate and sixth in yards per route run. Lamb will still be elite – even if the Cowboys run the ball more as Mike McCarthy has indicated.
NO. 7 – AMON-RA ST. BROWN, WR, DETROIT
Two years into his career, no one remembers St. Brown was drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft in 2021. Chase and 15 other receivers were selected before the Sun God, and he’s caught more passes than all of them. St. Brown ranks second in NFL history in receiving yards (2,073) in a player’s first two seasons. His 32 percent target rate resulted in 146 targets last year.
NO. 8 – DEVANTE ADAMS, WR, LAS VEGAS
Nobody boasted a higher target share than Adams in 2022. The ex-Packers WR proved he didn’t need Aaron Rodgers, with a 32.3% target share while finishing third in fantasy points PPG (16.8). He even showed that he could thrive without Derek Carr under center, catching seven balls for 153 yards and 2 TDs in that game. Don’t worry Jimmy Garoppolo, or anyone else.
NO. 9 – A.J. BROWN, WR, PHILADELPHIA
I underestimated Brown after he was traded to the Eagles. With 155 yards in his first game and a franchise-record 1,496 yards in his first season, Brown was the toast of the town. He finished as the WR4, while only 10th best in target share. He still garnered a 29% target share and the 6th-highest air yards share (39%) despite running fewer routes than his teammate DeVonta Smith.
NO. 10 – GARRETT WILSON, WR, NY JETS
Wilson produced 100-yard games with three different quarterbacks en route to 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, so imagine the possibilities when he’s catching passes from four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. He commanded a 25% target share and a 53% target share in Week 18 to end the year with 146 targets (top-10), despite not even being a full-time player until Week 8.
There they are – my top 10 receivers to draft in the first two rounds. Do yourself a favor and roster at least one of them. If you are fortunate enough to get two, you are on your way to dominating your league. If you’re worried about missing out on the top running backs, go back and read my previous column. This describes how to acquire your running backs in rounds 4-7.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
