I’ve heard some pundits I have a lot of respect for pan Deshaun Watson as overrated. A moot point, but they didn’t stop there. They went on to imply that anyone that drafts the Texans quarterback at the current ADP of 55 is crazy. I’m not certain what the greatest fantasy season ever for a quarterback was, but two that I remember have to be near or at the top. In 2007, with Randy Moss in tow, Tom Brady racked up nearly 34 points per game, and then in 2010 Michael Vick produced 32 per contest.
Last year, as a rookie, the phenom got off to a slow start against Jacksonville, arguably the league’s toughest defense. Likely still learning and getting comfortable with the new offense, Watson posted a mediocre total in Week 2. The next five weeks were for the record books, as the superstar averaged over 38 points per game. He didn’t just get lucky — the record-setting stretch was a mix of game flow (a weak defense that yields points always gives incentive for the offense to keep pouring it on), having weapons at his disposal, and special athleticism and playmaking ability few QBs posses.
Of course, there’s going to be regression. I think everyone realizes that, but there’s room for drastic regression and STILL finish the top scoring QB in 2018. If you’re only going to enter one team into either the 12 or 14 team Main Event, sure, there are safer picks. After all, Watson is coming off a torn ACL. On the other hand, if you’re going to enter 10 teams into Rotowire Championship, then at least one share of Deshaun and/or a Houston aerial stack makes a lot of sense.
A lot of people forget that for Watson’s first two starts, Will Fuller wasn’t on the field. Those games without Fuller in the lineup, Watson averaged 23.1 points, still a decent total. The next four starts, with the additional speedster attacking the secondary, Watson averaged 41.3 points, and the Watson-Hopkins-Fuller stack averaged a whopping 87.3 points. Yes, yes, small sample, blah blah, but that’s exactly what the championship bracket is, a three-week sample. You need players that are capable of exploding if you plan on outscoring hundreds of other teams, many of whom won their league. This is arguably the most explosive trio in the league. That doesn’t mean there won’t be regression. There will be. Nevertheless, the ceiling here is as high as it gets, albeit with a lower floor than some other veteran fantasy assets.
When drafting your passing and receiving assets, don’t forget to factor in the defense of the team they play on. Most NFL teams get conservative, playing “not to lose,” and sit on leads. That can be a death knell for offensive fantasy production when paired with a great defense. A kickoff return and a pick 6 can turn a tasty matchup into a dud in the blink of an eye. With that in mind, here are some offensive “stacks” or pairings to consider:
Andrew Luck (95) and TY Hilton (25) are a great duo, and the price on the Stanford grad will never be cheaper coming off a lost season in 2017. Numerous outlets are ranking the Indianapolis Colts defense as the worst in the NFL. Since opposing offenses are set up so nicely, Indianapolis will be forced to throw to either play catch up or keep pace.
Jimmy Garoppolo (104) and either Marquise Goodwin (70) or Pierre Garcon (75) are enticing given their upside and relatively inexpensive price tags. The 49ers defense will give up its fair share of points.
Patrick Mahomes (125) and Tyreek Hill (32) and Travis Kelce (30) will all benefit from the high turnover in the Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs are going to yield yards and points through the air, and the rookie under center will look to keep pace by throwing the rock to Hill and Kelce.
The Seattle Seahawks defense is going to be terrible, and that means Russell Wilson (67) and Doug Baldwin (31) will be filling up the stat sheet.
Digging Deeper: It will be exciting to see how much Tyrod Taylor (264) and Jarvis Landry (44) will thrive in Todd Haley’s system. Barring an injury, Lamar Jackson (326) will ride the pine behind Joe Flacco. The incumbent Ravens starter thinks he’s the best QB in the NFL. The reality is he’s probably not even be the best QB on his own team. The rookie from Louisville and Michael Crabtree would be a nice duo to own should the Ravens give their first round draft pick a shot.
Follow Greg @liquidhippo.
