It’s time to talk some serious draft/ADP Fantasy Football turkey, so let’s get to it.
Leveon Bell vs Todd Gurley:
There are two sides to the Leveon Bell and Todd Gurley debate. The Todd Gurley side cites injury risk of Bell being a contributing factor along with his 2017 productivity. Gurley had more rushing yards and rushing touchdowns on 42 fewer rushing attempts. Gurley also outpaced Bell in the receiving game with 133 more receiving yards and three touchdowns with 21 fewer receptions. Bell certainly had an outlier of a season when it comes to his per-touch efficiency despite posting career highs in both rushing attempts and receptions. What Bell does bring to the table is the consistency factor. Simply put, if Bell is on the field he is going to produce at a high level. Even on a down year in efficiency the veteran was still the RB2 in most scoring formats. You know what you’re going to get from Bell and there is no greater name value at the running back position.
So which RB should be taken first overall? Todd Gurley and it shouldn’t even be as close as everyone makes it out to be… The touch totals Leveon Bell received in 2017 were astronomical and unsustainable. Taking an even money bet that Bell goes down with a season ending injury wouldn’t even be a bad bet. James Conner is going to be a draft day steal. Just don’t draft him and drop him in week 3 after Bell posts his 3rd 20 point performance of the season.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs Deandre Hopkins:
Very few rankings have Odell Beckham Jr. ahead of Deandre Hopkins on the draft board. That take is completely understandable considering how dominant Deandre Hopkins truly was in 2017. Hopkins received an astounding 176 targets. For reference Antonio Brown has eclipsed that target total twice in his career, Julio Jones has eclipsed that total once in his career and Odell Beckham Jr. has never received that many targets in a single season. Very impressive considering Hopkins played in just 15 games and it was not even a career high for him. The return of rookie sensation Deshaun Watson has potential fantasy owners clamoring to get their shares of “Nuk”.
If given a choice I will take Odell Beckham Jr. over Deandre Hopkins every chance I get. While Odell has a slim chance of receiving as many targets as Hopkins, he is still one of the best (if not the best) receiver in yards after catch.
Any given slant route can be taken for a 75 yard touchdown. What he loses in receptions he will gain in YAC, an area he has been at the top of the league in since entering the league. Odell has never had a healthy season under 1300 receiving yards or double digit touchdowns. Hopkins must rely on high target totals to produce at a high level. His struggles in catch rate (55%) and inability to create yards after the catch limit the potential upside. Another small factor is that the third year for a receiver is statistically the most likely year for a breakout season. Both Braxton Miller and Will Fuller are entering their third years.
Alvin Kamara:
Kamara was hands down the best draft pick of 2017. The Rookie of the Year produced game in and game out in the flashiest way possible. Fancy moves and big plays were something we all got used to watching when Kamara touched the ball. His efficiency as a rusher was something we haven’t seen since the early Jamaal Charles days. Currently Alvin Kamara is going off the board as the 5th running back in the draft. That is way too early for me to own a single share of Kamara.
While everyone loves their running backs to be productive, touches rule when it comes to RB1s. No other RB in the top 12 should receive less than a 60% market share in the backfield. In order for Kamara to exceed his value at his current draft price both of these things must happen. He must see an uptick in total touches and remain as productive in both yards and touchdowns. We saw Kamara being to show signs of wear and tear towards the end of the season with a three game tilt averaging 3.1YPC. This should not be a knock on his ability but a reality of the position. The efficiency he posted was unsustainable at 6.1YPC. Now teams have a year of tape on him and can better prepare for his usage. As for his touchdown totals, it will also be difficult to exceed 13 this season.
Drew Brees had an outlier of a season when it comes to red zone passing conversion rate. Some may think age is slowing him down but the film would suggest otherwise. An uptick of 5% in his red zone conversion rate is a highly likely scenario. Mark Ingram is also a 2019 free agent and The Saints would be smart to run him to the ground if they are looking to move on from him next offseason. Let’s be honest the relationship between Ingram and The Saints has not been a match made in heaven.
Top First Round Targets and Draft Spot:
To wrap everything up the best draft spot for 2018 will be pick 5. There is a significant tier drop after those top 5 are off the board. The likely remaining players will be either Antonio Brown, David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott. Antonio Brown is nearly a lock for a top 5 finish and DJ and Zeke have little to no wear and tear from the 2017 season. Both RBs have proven to be top 5 at the position and with the decreased injury risk you’re landing one of the safest RB’s in the first round. If Todd Gurley or Leveon Bell miraculously falls to you at that draft spot, you already won the draft.
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