Humorist Dave Barry commented, “Gravity is a contributing factor in nearly 73 percent of all accidents involving falling objects.” Vince Lombardi, bastardizing a quote from Confucius reportedly said, “The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall.”
I’ve got my own quote, although not nearly as popular as Barry’s or Lombardi’s. “If it’s falling, step aside and get the heck outta the way.” While this works well in life, it is even more effective in fantasy sports. Please allow me to explain.
I went into this year’s National Fantasy Baseball Championship with a plan. I wanted to pick somewhere between 9th and 12th, with an emphasis on 10th or 11th. With my first round pick, I figured that I could get Max Scherzer and then I could follow that up with either Francisco Lindor or Jose Ramirez. I surmised that Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Nolan Arenado, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt would go with the first six picks. Clayton Kershaw would likely go next, if he wasn’t gobbled up already. Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton were also projected to go high, meaning that if I had the 10th or 11th pick, I was virtually certain to get Scherzer, or at worst either Corey Kluber or Chris Sale.
I was very excited when I drew the 11th pick in the draft. I did a number of mock drafts, and each time when I drafted 11th I was the proud owner of one of those three stud pitchers. Draft day came and my foolproof plan was just that. Well, almost foolproof.
Trout, Altuve, Arenado and Turner went one through four, respectively. Betts lasted until the seventh pick, taken right after Blackmon and Goldschmidt. Kershaw had dropped from his expected 7th position, but this really didn’t matter to me. Yet. Harper went 8th, bringing up Creativesports’ own Greg Morgan. Greg took a pitcher, but it wasn’t Kershaw or Scherzer. Greg went with Corey Kluber. This wasn’t a problem as only one pick remained before my pick, and Scherzer and Sale were still out there.
Team 10 took Stanton, leaving me with Scherzer. Perfect, my plan worked. Well, not exactly.
Clayton Kershaw was still out there. Kershaw’s ADP was 5. No way he falls to me at 11, but he did. Well, the chance to jump on the future Hall of Famer Kershaw was too good to pass up. We’ve all heard that you got to take what the draft gives us, so if these first ten managers were going to give me Kershaw, who was I to complain?
Well, I’m complaining now. I should have stayed with my plan. I ended up finishing third in the league for $1,650.00, as I juggled a disappointing pitching staff all year, trying to find strikeouts and wins, giving up valuable ERA and WHIP points in the process. Might I have won my league with Scherzer instead of Kershaw? I don’t know, but I would have liked the chance to see.
In this instance, rather than diverting from my plan, I should have stepped aside and taken Sherzer.
Sometimes, I’m not as bright as I would hope. Fast-forward to the NFFC draft with me and watch me get hit by yet another falling object or two. I wanted to draft in the latter part of the NFFC draft, taking advantage of the third round reversal (the third round goes 12-11-10, etc., with the ensuing even rounds going 1-2-3 etc.) Looking at ADP and my prior drafts, I figured that Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey or Kareem Hunt would be available at pick ten in 12-team drafts.
I was elated when I was awarded the 10th pick. The first five picks went to form, with Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Ezekial Elliott and Antonio Brown taken first. Team six went off form, taking Kareem Hunt, but I still had either Gordon or McCaffrey. I figured that Saquon Barkley (APD 7) and Leonard Fournette (ADP 8) would be taken prior to my pick, as would one wide receiver, and I would then have the choice between Gordon and McCaffrey. DeAndre Hopkins and Barkley went seventh and eighth, meaning that team nine was going to get Fournette. Perfect. Well, not so perfect.
Team Nine opted for Odell Beckham. Leonard Fournette had fallen to me!
Completely ignoring my previous experience with Clayton Kershaw just months earlier, I announced my Fournette pick just seconds after Beckham was taken. Oops.
But wait, the falling objects didn’t stop there. I had figured that I could take a quality wide receiver in the second round (my pick was number 15), unless of course a top running back was still on the board.
I subscribe to the theory of “Go Big or Go Home.” Fantasy football is not for the meek. To win, you must take chances.
Well, Le’Veon Bell was a consensus top-two pick, and he was just kidding about holding out, right? When the 15th pick came up, both Bell and Michael Thomas were available. Yes, Bell had fallen! I grabbed him almost as quickly as I had Fournette.
Fournette and Bell to start the draft. What’s not to like? Quite a lot.
I’m 1-3 in the Primetime League. My backfield this week will be LaGarrette Blount and whomever I can get off the waiver wire (my other starter is Peyton Barber). Stop laughing. Really, please stop. By the time Bell reports to camp and by the time Fournette gets healthy, I might be 1-8.
The moral of the story and what I hope that I learned from these two experiences is that sticking with your plan, at least early on, isn’t such a bad thing. If a player is falling, take a deep breath and then get the heck outta the way.” Otherwise, you might end up cheering on LaGarrette Blount and Peyton Barber.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
