Position scarcity is a real thing. Generally, the concept refers to a position with only a few excellent contributors, a second tier of reasonably efficient contributors and then a couple of questionable tiers — followed by fantasy garbage. The thought is that getting a player in the top couple of tiers will give you such an advantage at that position that you can afford to wait on more robust positions, as a player in a third or fourth tier at one of those spots isn’t necessarily remarkably worse than a player in the second tier.
This year, we may experience the scarcest catcher position in recent memory. It seems, with the exception of the Yankees, teams are opting for defense at catcher rather than worrying about offense. While this may be effective in baseball, it is just devastating for fantasy lineups, especially deeper formats and any two-catcher leagues.
There are really only four tiers of catchers this year, and if you are playing in a 15-team league requiring two catchers per team, you’re going to be looking at tier four for at least one if not both of your catchers. It ain’t pretty. Here’s how the position shakes out:
Tier 1: Hey, this guy might help a bit…
1. Gary Sanchez
Sanchez has fought the injury bug and the lack of defense bug and, last year, the “I won’t make it to the Mendoza Line” bug, but he has more power and RBI potential than any other catcher. He won’t go in the second round this year, but someone will jump early.
2. JT Realmuto
It really doesn’t matter where he ends up (unless it’s Colorado). Realmuto is a solid four-category contributor
3. Sal Perez
He’s an old 28, breaks down over the year (.265 before the all star break, .228 after for the past three years) and plays for a weak Kansas City team, yet he’s number three overall. His 27 home runs each of the past two years are helpful.
Tier 2: Am I really using a top 10 pick on him?
4. Willson Contreras
Yes, his average has dropped the past three years (.282, .276, .249) and he’s never scored more than 50 runs and only once has driven in more than 54 runs, but he’s fourth best. Sad, very sad.
5. Wilson Ramos
Ramos is on the wrong side of 30, but he’s well rested, having played just over half his teams’ games over the past two seasons. He once hit 22 home runs in a season (2016) and, heck, he might do that again. Maybe.
6. Yadier Molina
Yadier is 36, which should make him eligible for catcher based social security. He’ll hit 20 home runs, drive in 70 and score 55, making him almost fantasy-gold in the barren catcher pool.
7. Buster Posey
I’m not a Posey fan. He doesn’t do anything really well, but he plays a lot, his average won’t hurt, and his counting stats are a heck of a lot better than virtually all other catchers. Quite an endorsement, huh?
8. Yasmani Grandal
The new Brewer backstop can swing and miss from both sides of the plate (85 strikeouts as a left handed hitter, 39 batting from the right side). He should be good for 25-plus homeruns and a .240 average. He’s also currently going at pick 146 in the NFBC, ahead of Andrew McCutchen, Corey Knebel, Mike Moustakas and Rafael Devers. Scarcity.
Tier 3: Why exactly do we draft two catchers?
9. Welington Castillo
He hit .282 with 20 home runs and 53 RBI in 341 at bats in 2017. That was before he got popped for illegal substances. Last year, in almost exactly half the at bats, he hit .259 with 6 home runs and drove in 15 runs. Small sample size or reality without chemical enhancement. You be the judge.
10. Mike Zunino
Zunino has hit over .215 one time in his career. That’s a huge price for those 20 home runs.
11. Danny Jansen
Jansen has only 81 MLB at bats, so we really don’t know how he’ll do. The unknown is certainly more exciting that the Yan Gomes of the world.
12. Willians Astudillo
Austudilo was amazing in 93 at bats (.365 average) last year, and if you extrapolate (don’t) his stats over 500 at bats, he’d score 48 runs, hit 16 home runs, and drive in 113. He’s a star. OK, probably not.
13. Robinson Chirinos
He’s an Astro. He can hit high double figure home runs. He’s also likely to hit .240. You’ve been warned.
14. Tucker Barnhart
He’s so good, the Reds are kicking the tires on Realmuto. Barnhart is slightly below average across the board, making him a viable starting catcher in fantasy. Sad.
15. Jorge Alfaro
Alfaro hit .318 in 107 at bats in 2017. In most of a full season, he hit .262 with 10 home runs and 37 RBI. A repeat of 2018 is expected.
16. Yan Gomes
Gomes hit .268 last season. Fluke or fact? Well, he hit .229, .167 and .231 the previous three years. Gomes is regularly found on the waiver wire in June.
Tier 4: I thought it was someone else’s turn to sift through the trash…
17. Francisco Cervelli
18. Francisco Mejia
19 Isiah Kiner-Falefa
20. Kurt Suzuki
21. Austin Barnes
22. Austin Hedges
23. Jonathan Lucroy
24. Omar Narvaez
25. John Hicks
26. Manny Pina
27. Tyler Flowers
28. Mitch Garver
29. Elias Diaz
30. Chris Ianetta
31. Christian Vazquez
32. Carson Kelly
33. Brian McCann
34. James McCann
35. Russell Martin
Yes, if there ever was a poster year for drafting just one catcher, than 2019 is it. That’s not going to happen, so govern yourself accordingly.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
