Just like fantasy baseball, digging deeper into advanced statistics proves revealing for fantasy basketball purposes. This is especially true for volume and efficiency, two metrics of particular importance as success hinges on their balance. The advanced stats usage rate (USG%) and true shooting percentage (TS%) underlie volume and efficiency.
Basketball Reference defines the stats as follows:
- – Usage Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)). Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.
- – True Shooting Percentage; the formula is PTS / (2 * TSA). True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.
Essentially, USG% is scoring opportunity and TS% is scoring efficiency, and accounting for the pair encapsulates the categories PTS, FG% and FT% completely and 3PM to an extent. This exchange simplifies player evaluation as that leaves only four relatively straight forward categories unaccounted. Below are the elites from last season in each statistic (among qualified players), with average USG% being 20.0 and TS% 0.563.
| Player | USG% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 37.5 |
| Luka Doncic | 36.8 |
| James Harden | 36.3 |
| Trae Young | 34.9 |
| Bradley Beal | 34.4 |
| Russell Westbrook | 34.4 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 33 |
| Joel Embiid | 32.9 |
| Zach Lavine | 31.7 |
| Derrick Rose | 31.6 |
| Player | TS% |
| Mitchell Robinson | 0.726 |
| Rudy Gobert | 0.699 |
| Duncan Robinson | 0.684 |
| Jarrett Allen | 0.664 |
| Brandon Clarke | 0.663 |
| John Collins | 0.659 |
| Christian Wood | 0.659 |
| Ivica Zubac | 0.651 |
| Thomas Bryant | 0.649 |
| J.J. Redick | 0.644 |
| Hassan Whiteside | 0.644 |
Usage Rate
The USG% leaderboard is predictably dominated by superstars and offensive creators on poor teams, as the only two surprises are Lavine and Rose who were forced to create more than expected due to team need. Similarly, D’Angelo Russell is 11th and all three are ahead of Lebron James at 12. For the big names, this data isn’t especially telling but it shines a light on mid and late round players receiving ample opportunity. Last year, Caris LeVert was top 20, Julius Randle, Andrew Wiggins and Colin Sexton top 30, and Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic and Dillon Brooks top 50. All of these players are going substantially later than these slots in drafts for a variety of legitimate reasons, but USG% shows that volume is present so if efficiency ever improves they can be a steal.
True Shooting Percent
Three types of players headline the TS% leaders: rim-running centers, modern bigs and marksmen from three. This is because these are the most efficient shots available on the court that maximize expected points (when factors like defense are ignored). Robinson, Gobert, Allen, Zubac and Whiteside occupy the top 10 because they only attempt dunks, layups, putbacks and the occasional floater. Their extremely high FG% is weighed down by subpar FT% but there isn’t enough volume from the line to decrease their TS% rank. The next tier of TS% stars are the modern bigs, stretch four and fives. These players can score efficiently from two and three-point range and their skillset is probably more valuable, however for TS% terms the dip in 2P% lowers their number. The final group of TS% mavens are the elite three point shooters. Only Robinson and Redick are efficient enough to crack the top 10 but 13 more players in the top 30 are known for their long range capabilities.
Fantasy Basketball Application
The simplest application of these stats for fantasy purposes is to downgrade players going in the first few rounds who have a low TS%. This is why I’m lower on Antetokounmpo, Doncic and James than most. The trio ranks 1, 2 and 6 in current ESPN ADP but their 2020 TS% ranks were 25, 65 and 76. This questionably low ranking is because, while their rates in each of the percentage categories is decent, the sheer volume of attempts at mediocre percentages drives down their overall TS% and therefore their value. Below are more high-ranking players whose TS% is substantially lower than one would suspect.
Nikola Jokic C, Den | TS% Rank: 33
Despite a reputation as a Center who can shoot, Jokic TS% is lower than expected because of a mediocre .320 3P%. You may be wondering why I have him ahead of Antetokounmpo in my rankings if his TS% rank is lower and my rational for Antetokounmpo being fifth overall is shooting. The difference is a low 3P% compared to low FT%. Jokic’ below average threes are less harmful than Antetokounmpo’s category-killing free throws. This demonstrates how TS% is extremely helpful but not necessarily catchall.
Jayson Tatum SF, Bos | TS% Rank: 95
This is an especially surprising rank as Tatum is known as a good shooter, evidenced by a .403 3P% last season. The culprit here is actually a low 2P% that stems from an inefficient midrange game that is useful in the NBA but not for fantasy purposes. There’s no doubt that Tatum is on the rise, although a big leap in 2-point efficiency is premature.
Russell Westbrook PG, Was | TS% Rank: 151
This one should be fairly obvious, as Westbrook has shot .285% from three and .718% from the line in three years since his MVP season. The numbers aren’t any better in 2021 so stay away or sell your shares because he kills both shooting rates.
Pascal Siakam PF, Tor | TS% Rank: 117
Siakam is in a near identical spot to Tatum: a young player with star potential and an expanding role. Similarly, it’s Siakam’s 2-point inefficiency on high volume that drives down his TS%, and an unchanged role means that improvement can’t be expected.
Andre Drummond C, Cle | TS% Rank: 119
Drummond has improved an abysmal FT% to merely horrible, which has substantially elevated his fantasy prospects. If he maintains these rates, he’s actually a solid pick, but punting an entire category isn’t a pragmatic strategy for forming a well-rounded team.
Jrue Holiday G, Mil | TS% Rank: 148
Holiday’s TS% rank is low because of a .709 FT% (.778 career average), although it sits at .749 over the last four seasons. He’s started out hot thanks to playing on a much better Milwaukee team with defenses focused on Antetokounmpo, but Holiday is one of those players who’s better in real life than in fantasy.
CJ McCollum SG, Por | TS% Rank: 143
Like Holiday, McCollum had a down year in the free throw department at .757% but hasn’t shot below .827 since becoming a full-time player in 2016. Even if the free throws improve, he’s at .551 TS% for his career which would only vault him 15 spots to rank 128 last season.
