I admit it. I watch. I sneak a peek. I check it out. I’m not embarrassed about it at all. It’s a guilty pleasure. I also know, however, that it’s not real. No, I’m not referencing a gentleman’s club, I’m talking about ADP.
ADP–Average Draft Position–is exactly what it sounds like, it’s the average of where each player goes in every draft. The NFBC has the best ADP data, summarizing each of the drafts in its competition. Unlike Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS Sports, et al, players in the NFBC are putting up money to play. Meaning when not all participants are paying for the privilege to play, the sites pre-ranking has a profound effect upon the ADP. This isn’t a major problem with the NFBC ADP.
That doesn’t mean that the NFBC ADP is perfect; it’s not. Some participants, especially in leagues with lower entry fees, may very well be trying out different strategies. However, the NFBC has so many leagues, these few outlier pickers really don’t make much of a difference. The NFBC allows the user to adjust the ADP by date, and for the number of teams in the league (10, 12 or 15) and by type of draft. It’s really quite incredible, as ADPs go.
That being said, and despite my admissions that I do indeed pay attention to the ADP, the ADP is pretty much worthless. Yes, I wrote that. It’s true.
Each of you likely has your favorite columnist and statistical prognostication service. Perhaps you follow our leader, Zen-Master, Lawr Michaels. Some may prefer the stat based opinions of Todd Zola and Mastersball, whereas others may turn to our ultra-successful Marc Meltzer (just as good at baseball as football). There are literally hundreds of columnists you can follow, read, and take advice. With each, you know whom you are following, you can find their track record, and you can take their advice for what it is worth.
Not true with ADP. ADP is merely a summary of all players. I play in the Main Event, a 15-team competition with an overall set of prizes. Looking just at the regular league prizes, three of the fifteen teams cash. Third place only gets basic entry fee back, and with co-manager fees, etc., third place really can’t be considered a winner. So, at a minimum 12 of 15 teams lose money which equates to 80%, and realistically 13 of 15 teams (87%) actually lose money.
Therefore, 87% of those managers that comprise the picks depicted in the ADP are LOSERS. If I told you that Michaels, Zola, or Meltzer lost 87% of the time, would you still follow their advice? Me either.
Some consider the ADP to help determine where a player might go in a draft. Great, go for it. It won’t help you, and by doing so you are one step closer to joining the 87%. Every draft is dynamic, every draft is different. The ADP doesn’t take those differences into account. Every draft will have managers with certain preferences, certain likes, and certain dislikes. The ADP knows nothing of it.
You can’t sit at a draft and figure that your draft will go the same way the ADP does. Right now, Kris Davis is 69th in the NFBC ADP. Does that mean that you can wait until the 9th pick of the fifth round to secure him? Of course not.
The aforementioned Michaels, a Bay Area resident, drafted Oakland’s Davis with the 41st pick in the recent Fantasy Sports Trade Association Draft. Had you wanted Davis and relied on the ADP figuring that you could wait on Davis until the fifth round, you’d have been sorely mistaken. Does it matter that Michaels took Davis 28 picks before he was “supposed” to? Of course not. If Davis performs better than the 41st pick, then Michaels made a great pick. Could he have waited until the fifth round to take Davis, thereby getting another solid pick in third round? We will never know, but neither will the ADP.
MInd you, ADP isn’t without some value. ADP can be a good source for getting a general idea of the relative perceived value of players. Fantasy Pros has a consensus “expert” ranking feature. At present, 30 “experts” are available. For the purposes of this column, I sorted using all 30 “experts.”
The “expert’s” top ten first basemen are, in order:
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Joey Votto
- Freddie Freeman
- Anthony Rizzo
- Cody Bellinger
- Jose Abreu
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Rhys Hoskins
- Wil Myers
- Eric Hosmer
The ADP’s top ten first basemen are, in order:
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Joey Votto
- Freddie Freeman
- Cody Bellinger
- Anthony Rizzo
- Jose Abreu
- Rhys Hoskins
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Wil Myers
- Eric Hosmer
The only differences from the NFBC ADP is that the ADP has Bellinger 4th and Rizzo 5th, and Hoskins 7th and Encarnacion 8th.
The consensus and the ADP are virtually identical for every position. The ADP’s consensus of 89% losers and 11% winners is remarkably similar to the consensus of the “experts.”
What does this all mean?
Not a whole lot. The “experts,” the ADP, you and I are all wrong more often than we are right. The ADP can be a tool for general consensus ranking, and little more. If you keep it in perspective, I suppose it can’t hurt.
Best of luck,
Buster
