We are starting to see the season develop enough now that contenders are emerging, and the becomes not whether you can start hot out of the gate, but instead if success can be sustained over the long haul the summer will bring. We are also at the point where the teams that are not concerned with contending start to emerge, and these teams can be incredible sources of otherwise unknown fantasy assets as they allocate playing time to players who otherwise might not be seeing much of it.
In either case, when there are talented players that start to make their debuts in the big leagues, whether they are highly touted prospects or not, they can make an impact if given ample opportunity. We just want to be cognizant of their skill sets, how they will translate when facing higher quality competition, and how long of a leash they will be given should they struggle early on. Let’s get started with…
James Kaprielian
Just about every player has a long journey ahead of them before they reach the big leagues, but this was especially true for Kaprielian. Starting out in the Yankees system, he was, as you may recall, one of the prized pieces of the Sonny Gray trade (to the Yankees) way back when Gray was the A’s ace. He did not throw a single professional pitch in 2017 or 2018 due to injury, and put together a quality effort across three different levels in 2019, ending in Triple-A and thought to be in consideration for spot work in the Show in 2020.
With 2020 having other plans (for all of us), the shortened season limited Kaprielian to only a single start and fewer than five innings all of last season. So when 2021 offered a chance at redemption, it was crucial to both Kaprielian and the A’s brass that he make the most of it when given the opportunity. No longer a “young” prospect, Kaprielian is 27 years old this season and has passed his first three starts with flying colors.
One of the hallmarks of his skill set has long been K% in the high 20s and a sub 10% BB rate, and that’s what he has been able to show in 2021. While the .91 WHIP and .186 BABIP probably aren’t sustainable as he takes more turns in the rotation and faces tougher competition that has had more opportunity to scout him, the skill set certainly seems to play so far. What’s more, he is in a fantastic situation with a team that plays fantastic defense, plays their home game in an extreme pitchers park, and puts up runs in bunches allowing for enough run support to chalk up the all important pitcher wins (he says with a twinge of sarcasm).
Alek Manoah
If you were attempting to select a prospect who took a path to the big leagues least similar to Kaprielian while still being a pitching prospect, Manoah would be a decent option to choose. After putting up a decorated college career at West Virginia, he had a brief appearance in 2019 in short season A ball, and while he was successful, this was obviously against lower level and similarly inexperienced competition. He didn’t have any stats in 2020 due to the pandemic, so it was a bit of a surprise to see him start 2021 in Triple-A, but the Blue Jays clearly had high hopes for him.
Even more of a surprise, he made his big league debut this week. Short on pitching and with Nate Pearson still working through an injury, the Jays turned the reins over to Manoah to take the bump in a double header at Yankee Stadium, and he didn’t disappoint, going six innings strong, while only allowing four base runners and striking out seven. Not just a good MLB debut in a tough scenario, but a good outing for anyone!
As fun as it is for a guy to rocket up through the lower ranks and dominate a tough lineup in an intimidating ballpark, I would urge some caution against our urges to go all-in with FAAB bids to pick up Manoah wherever possible. As little as the Yankees knew about him, we know even less. His debut could be the real deal, but it could also be an adrenaline-fueled anomaly. We may want him to be Lance Lynn, but it’s entirely possible he struggles with command and gets blown up his next time out.
Further, just as his path to MLB was opposite of what Kaprielian has faced, the context of his starts are equally opposite. He will pitch in either Buffalo or Toronto for his home starts going forward, and while that isn’t as bad of a hitters park as the current digs in Dunedin, either will still play as hitters parks, as will most of the other parks in the AL East. The Blue Jays, for as much as they are capable of offensively, are also not a particularly accomplished defensive team (24th in DRS according to Fielding Bible), so he will not have the contextual advantages you would hope for to maximize the odds of success for a young pitcher.
Logan Gilbert
With a rare combination of intimidating frame, plus velocity, and elite command, Gilbert is the total package when it comes to pitching prospects. While he hasn’t found much success at the MLB level (although the 7.59 ERA through three starts makes the performance seem worse than it is), he should have some staying power in the rotation, as the Mariners don’t have many better options aren’t expected to be competitive anyway.
Similar to Manoah, he has a very small minor league body of work, as an illness kept him out of competition in the 2018 season, and COVID kept him out of the 2020 season, so he was only able to compile any stats during the 2019 season, in which he was absolutely dominant against four different levels of competition, finishing the season with a five inning start in Triple-A.
While the surface numbers haven’t been great in 2021 as mentioned, there’s plenty to like. He’s put up a 22.4% K rate which is lower than his career baseline, but still acceptable for sustained MLB success, and even more impressively, has only yielded a 4% BB rate, meaning that his less impressive 1.41 WHIP is due primarily to hitters beating him than him beating himself. It could also be attributed, at least in part, to not having a great defense behind him, as evidenced by a high-ish .333 BABIP.
All of that to say, while Kaprielian and Manoah may have been more effective in their first start or handful of starts, I would not be surprised if Gilbert isn’t the more effective pitcher over the course of the season, once all three have had opportunities to put together a larger body of work.
