Before we started living in a Quentin Tarantino rendition of a “Twilight Zone” episode, many fantasy baseball analysts discussed which hitters might be negatively affected in 2020 if the “happy fun ball” of 2019 was replaced with the more pitcher friendly version from 2018. There was a 21% increase in home runs in 2019 versus 2018.
Initiating the conversation was the balls used in the 2019 postseason did not appear to be flying out of the yard at the same rate as they did in the regular season. In the 2019 regular season, 59.6% of all Barrels* went for a home run with just 52.9% leaving the yard in the playoffs, a 6.7% drop. This reduction was an even greater gap than the disparity between the 2019 and 2018 regular seasons. The 2019 rate is similar to the 2018 regular season mark of 53.7%, prompting analysts to wonder if we could trust the breakouts of players like Ketel Marte (14 HRs in 520 ABs in ’18 versus 32 HRs in 569 ABs in ’19), Jorge Soler (9/223 versus 48/589), Josh Bell (12/501 versus 37/527), Trey Mancini (24/582 versus 35/602), etc.
*Note: Per MLB.com- The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. Further information on Barrels can be found here.
This offseason, there was some excellent work done by those investigating the effect on players if the 2020 baseball acted more like the 2018 horsehide. Complex analysis correlating home runs to such variables as Average Home Run Distance, Maximum Home Run Distance, Average Line Drive and Fly Ball Distance, Hard Hit Rate, and Barrels was presented.
My work on Noble Park Factors paved the way for a unique approach incorporating Statcast data. First, I’ll detail the methodology, followed by groups of players most aided by the added flight from the 2019 baseball.
Methodology
Expected stats for all Batted-Ball Events (BBE) can be calculated using Exit Velocity (EV), Launch Angle (LA), handedness of the batter and the direction (pull, center, oppo) of contact. Expected stats for players can be gleaned by comparing their actual results to the pool’s results.
The goal is generating expected stats using 2019 player data assuming the ball acted like it did in 2018. To accomplish this, instead of comparing individual player component data to the 2019 component data, it is compared to 2018.
Please note, many players changed their approach to take advantage of the 2019 conditions. This can’t be quantified. All we can do is a numerical translation.
Results
Ax expected, Statcast yielded interesting results. Comparing the two seasons, it’s evident the “happy fun ball” isn’t the only reason home runs increased by 21.3% increase last campaign.
| ‘19 Actual | ‘19 Expected | ‘18 Actual |
| 6776 | 6350 | 5585 |
Using this method, players embracing concepts like exit velocity and launch angle and increasing the percentage of balls that are barreled embellished the home run output by 13.7% alone. We can deduce the remaining 6.7% bump emanated from the 2019 baseball, perhaps not as significant as many perceive.
Players
Given that the 2019 baseball produced 6.7% more home runs than the 2018 ball would have, virtually everyone produced fewer adjusted home runs using the lesser flight 2018 baseball (though not everyone declined). There were six players increasing their home run output by between 1 and 2.77.
Didn’t get the memo
Here are the players hitting more adjusted homers with the ’18 ball, suggesting some “bad luck” in 2019.
| Player | AB | HR ’19 | adjHR | Diff% |
| Tommy Edman | 326 | 11 | 13 | 14.9% |
| Howie Kendrick | 334 | 17 | 19 | 9.0% |
| Bryce Harper | 573 | 35 | 38 | 7.9% |
| Dwight Smith Jr | 357 | 13 | 14 | 11.5% |
This could be good news for Edman as many question his ability to sustain a power surge seemingly out of nowhere, but this data contends it didn’t manifest from the ball.
On par
This group was essentially the same with and without the adjusted ball. The small differences can be attributed to a wisp of wind here and there.
| Player | AB | HR ’19 | adjHR | Diff% |
| Nelson Cruz | 454 | 41 | 41 | -0.2% |
| Eduardo Escobar | 636 | 35 | 35 | -0.6% |
| Jean Segura | 576 | 12 | 12 | -0.6% |
| Yadier Molina | 419 | 10 | 10 | -0.8% |
| Nomar Mazara | 429 | 19 | 19 | -1.1% |
| Matt Chapman | 583 | 36 | 35 | -1.7% |
| Enrique Hernandez | 414 | 17 | 17 | -1.7% |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 425 | 15 | 15 | -1.7% |
| Mike Trout | 470 | 45 | 44 | -1.8% |
| Jose Martinez | 334 | 10 | 10 | -2.3% |
| Ben Gamel | 311 | 7 | 7 | -2.6% |
| Scott Kingery | 458 | 19 | 18 | -2.7% |
| Francisco Lindor | 598 | 32 | 31 | -2.8% |
| Hanser Alberto | 524 | 12 | 12 | -3.2% |
| Jose Altuve | 500 | 31 | 30 | -3.3% |
| Yan Gomes | 314 | 12 | 12 | -3.3% |
| Jorge Alfaro | 431 | 18 | 17 | -3.3% |
| Michael Conforto | 549 | 33 | 32 | -4.0% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 570 | 29 | 28 | -4.1% |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 417 | 26 | 25 | -4.1% |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 494 | 21 | 20 | -4.1% |
| Justin Smoak | 414 | 22 | 21 | -4.2% |
| Jorge Soler | 589 | 48 | 46 | -4.2% |
| Josh Bell | 527 | 37 | 35 | -4.5% |
| Bryan Reynolds | 491 | 16 | 15 | -4.7% |
| Michael Chavis | 347 | 18 | 17 | -4.9% |
| Freddie Freeman | 597 | 38 | 36 | -4.9% |
| Victor Robles | 546 | 17 | 16 | -5.1% |
| Cesar Hernandez | 612 | 14 | 13 | -5.3% |
| Domingo Santana | 451 | 21 | 20 | -5.3% |
| Tim Beckham | 304 | 15 | 14 | -5.3% |
| Matt Carpenter | 416 | 15 | 14 | -5.5% |
| Eugenio Suarez | 575 | 49 | 46 | -5.5% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 597 | 34 | 32 | -5.6% |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 351 | 16 | 15 | -5.7% |
| Jose Ramirez | 482 | 23 | 22 | -5.9% |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 447 | 18 | 17 | -6.3% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 334 | 22 | 21 | -6.5% |
| Albert Almora Jr. | 339 | 12 | 11 | -6.6% |
| C.J. Cron | 458 | 25 | 23 | -6.6% |
While this is good news for everyone, it’s especially encouraging to see Suarez and Soler aren’t in store for regression. This doesn’t mean they’ll maintain their gains, only the skills bump was fact and not fluke.
Maybe a little concerned
This group seemingly benefited from the 2019 ball, but the degree could also be considered normal performance variance, so don’t penalize them too much.
| Player | AB | HR ’19 | adjHR | Diff% |
| Kole Calhoun | 552 | 33 | 31 | -6.7% |
| Chris Davis | 307 | 12 | 11 | -6.8% |
| Todd Frazier | 447 | 21 | 20 | -6.8% |
| Brian Goodwin | 413 | 17 | 16 | -6.8% |
| Christian Yelich | 489 | 44 | 41 | -7.0% |
| Kyle Schwarber | 529 | 38 | 35 | -7.1% |
| Jesus Aguilar | 314 | 12 | 11 | -7.1% |
| Rafael Devers | 647 | 32 | 30 | -7.7% |
| Maikel Franco | 389 | 17 | 16 | -7.8% |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 626 | 41 | 38 | -7.8% |
| Miguel Sano | 380 | 34 | 31 | -7.8% |
| Hunter Renfroe | 440 | 33 | 30 | -7.8% |
| Paul DeJong | 583 | 30 | 28 | -8.2% |
| Curtis Granderson | 317 | 12 | 11 | -8.2% |
| Gary Sanchez | 396 | 34 | 31 | -8.2% |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 464 | 15 | 14 | -8.5% |
| Didi Gregorius | 324 | 16 | 15 | -8.6% |
| Luke Voit | 429 | 21 | 19 | -8.6% |
| Nick Ahmed | 556 | 19 | 17 | -8.7% |
| Evan Longoria | 453 | 20 | 18 | -8.7% |
| Jonathan Schoop | 433 | 23 | 21 | -9.1% |
| Eddie Rosario | 562 | 32 | 29 | -9.1% |
| Jonathan Villar | 642 | 24 | 22 | -9.2% |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 314 | 20 | 18 | -9.3% |
| Willson Contreras | 360 | 24 | 22 | -9.5% |
| Franmil Reyes | 494 | 37 | 33 | -9.6% |
| Josh Donaldson | 549 | 37 | 33 | -9.7% |
| Pete Alonso | 597 | 53 | 48 | -9.7% |
| Brandon Dixon | 391 | 15 | 14 | -9.7% |
| Avisail Garcia | 489 | 20 | 18 | -9.8% |
| George Springer | 479 | 39 | 35 | -9.8% |
| Max Muncy | 487 | 35 | 32 | -9.9% |
Many are bearish on Alonso as the follow-up after a historical campaign are usually disappointing. This data suggests slowing your roll, the fall could be soft.
Expect Some Regression
This block was almost assuredly aided by the reduced drag on the 2019 baseball, so be wary if it appears the 2020 ball reverts to 2018.
| Player | AB | HR ’19 | adjHR | Diff% |
| Jurickson Profar | 459 | 20 | 18 | -10.1% |
| Nolan Arenado | 588 | 41 | 37 | -10.1% |
| Starling Marte | 539 | 23 | 21 | -10.3% |
| Jason Kipnis | 458 | 17 | 15 | -10.6% |
| Yoan Moncada | 511 | 25 | 22 | -10.8% |
| Wil Myers | 435 | 18 | 16 | -11.0% |
| Eric Hosmer | 619 | 22 | 20 | -11.1% |
| Christian Walker | 529 | 29 | 26 | -11.3% |
| Freddy Galvis | 557 | 23 | 20 | -11.5% |
| Mookie Betts | 597 | 29 | 26 | -11.5% |
| Starlin Castro | 636 | 22 | 19 | -11.6% |
| Kris Bryant | 543 | 31 | 27 | -11.7% |
| Mitch Garver | 311 | 31 | 27 | -11.9% |
| Charlie Blackmon | 580 | 32 | 28 | -12.1% |
| Ji-Man Choi | 410 | 19 | 17 | -12.1% |
| Trea Turner | 521 | 19 | 17 | -12.2% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 485 | 29 | 25 | -12.4% |
| Eloy Jimenez | 468 | 31 | 27 | -12.4% |
| Tucker Barnhart | 316 | 11 | 10 | -12.4% |
| Oscar Mercado | 438 | 15 | 13 | -12.5% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 614 | 33 | 29 | -12.5% |
| Brandon Belt | 526 | 17 | 15 | -12.6% |
| Marcus Semien | 657 | 33 | 29 | -12.6% |
| Ozzie Albies | 640 | 24 | 21 | -12.6% |
| Kyle Seager | 393 | 23 | 20 | -12.9% |
| Michael Brantley | 575 | 22 | 19 | -13.0% |
| Ryan O’Hearn | 328 | 14 | 12 | -13.0% |
| Willy Adames | 531 | 20 | 17 | -13.2% |
| Harrison Bader | 347 | 12 | 10 | -13.2% |
| Jay Bruce | 310 | 26 | 23 | -13.2% |
| David Dahl | 374 | 15 | 13 | -13.3% |
| Anthony Rendon | 545 | 34 | 29 | -13.3% |
| Yordan Alvarez | 313 | 27 | 23 | -13.3% |
| Randal Grichuk | 586 | 31 | 27 | -13.6% |
| Roberto Perez | 389 | 24 | 21 | -13.7% |
| Dansby Swanson | 483 | 17 | 15 | -13.7% |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 462 | 30 | 26 | -13.7% |
| Keston Hiura | 314 | 19 | 16 | -13.9% |
| Trevor Story | 588 | 35 | 30 | -13.9% |
| Aaron Judge | 378 | 27 | 23 | -14.0% |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 418 | 34 | 29 | -14.1% |
| Albert Pujols | 491 | 23 | 20 | -14.5% |
| Justin Turner | 479 | 27 | 23 | -14.8% |
| Eric Sogard | 396 | 13 | 11 | -15.0% |
| Cavan Biggio | 354 | 16 | 14 | -15.1% |
| Alex Verdugo | 343 | 12 | 10 | -15.1% |
| Austin Meadows | 530 | 33 | 28 | -15.1% |
| Ramon Laureano | 434 | 24 | 20 | -15.2% |
| Alex Bregman | 554 | 41 | 35 | -15.3% |
| Mark Canha | 410 | 26 | 22 | -15.5% |
| Mike Moustakas | 523 | 35 | 30 | -15.5% |
| Max Kepler | 524 | 36 | 30 | -15.5% |
| Rowdy Tellez | 370 | 21 | 18 | -15.7% |
| Ketel Marte | 569 | 32 | 27 | -15.8% |
| Corey Seager | 489 | 19 | 16 | -15.8% |
| Adam Jones | 485 | 16 | 13 | -15.9% |
| Danny Jansen | 347 | 13 | 11 | -15.9% |
| Matt Olson | 483 | 36 | 30 | -15.9% |
| Danny Santana | 474 | 28 | 24 | -15.9% |
| Christian Vazquez | 482 | 23 | 19 | -16.0% |
| Jeff McNeil | 510 | 23 | 19 | -16.0% |
| Dexter Fowler | 487 | 19 | 16 | -16.1% |
| Gio Urshela | 442 | 21 | 18 | -16.2% |
| Tim Anderson | 498 | 18 | 15 | -16.2% |
| Nicholas Castellanos* | 615 | 27 | 23 | -16.3% |
| Hunter Dozier | 523 | 26 | 22 | -16.4% |
| Garrett Cooper | 381 | 15 | 12 | -16.7% |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 563 | 24 | 20 | -16.8% |
| Carlos Santana | 573 | 34 | 28 | -16.9% |
| Chris Taylor | 366 | 12 | 10 | -16.9% |
| James McCann | 439 | 18 | 15 | -17.1% |
| J.D. Davis | 410 | 22 | 18 | -17.2% |
| Rougned Odor | 522 | 30 | 25 | -17.3% |
| J.D. Martinez | 575 | 36 | 30 | -17.3% |
| Kevin Pillar | 611 | 21 | 17 | -17.3% |
| Cody Bellinger | 558 | 47 | 39 | -17.4% |
| Gleyber Torres | 546 | 38 | 31 | -17.4% |
| Javier Baez | 531 | 29 | 24 | -17.6% |
| Brian Anderson | 459 | 20 | 16 | -17.8% |
| Khris Davis | 481 | 23 | 19 | -18.0% |
| Tommy Pham | 567 | 21 | 17 | -18.0% |
| John Hicks | 319 | 13 | 11 | -18.1% |
| Brian Dozier | 416 | 20 | 16 | -18.4% |
| DJ LeMahieu | 602 | 26 | 21 | -18.5% |
| Omar Narvaez | 428 | 22 | 18 | -18.6% |
| Juan Soto | 542 | 34 | 28 | -18.7% |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 447 | 14 | 11 | -18.8% |
| Martin Maldonado | 333 | 12 | 10 | -19.1% |
| Ian Desmond | 443 | 20 | 16 | -19.1% |
| Jake Bauers | 372 | 12 | 10 | -19.4% |
| Anthony Santander | 380 | 20 | 16 | -19.5% |
| Renato Nunez | 541 | 31 | 25 | -19.6% |
| Jorge Polanco | 631 | 22 | 18 | -19.6% |
| David Bote | 303 | 11 | 9 | -19.8% |
This is easily the longest list. Before knocking these hitters down too many pegs, look for something else with a chance to mitigate the small, but impending regression. Perhaps the player is improving contact or young and still maturing.
Danger Will Robinson
Not only was this group favored by the ball, they were the beneficiaries of even more luck so regardless of what is used this season, caveat emptor, especially the bottom third.
| Player | AB | HR ’19 | adjHR | Diff% |
| Nick Senzel | 375 | 12 | 10 | -20.0% |
| Yasiel Puig | 555 | 24 | 19 | -20.4% |
| Matt Adams | 310 | 20 | 16 | -20.4% |
| Rio Ruiz | 370 | 12 | 10 | -20.4% |
| A.J. Pollock | 308 | 15 | 12 | -21.0% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 512 | 27 | 21 | -22.6% |
| Jose Abreu | 634 | 33 | 25 | -23.0% |
| Joc Pederson | 450 | 36 | 27 | -23.6% |
| Ryan Braun | 459 | 22 | 17 | -24.2% |
| Jason Heyward | 513 | 21 | 16 | -24.4% |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 371 | 21 | 16 | -24.8% |
| Brandon Drury | 418 | 15 | 11 | -25.5% |
| Eric Thames | 396 | 25 | 19 | -25.8% |
| Carson Kelly | 314 | 18 | 13 | -26.1% |
| Yasmani Grandal | 513 | 28 | 21 | -26.5% |
| Yandy Diaz | 307 | 14 | 10 | -26.6% |
| Robinson Cano | 390 | 13 | 10 | -26.6% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 384 | 18 | 13 | -27.4% |
| Yuli Gurriel | 564 | 31 | 22 | -27.9% |
| Brett Gardner | 491 | 28 | 20 | -28.6% |
| David Peralta | 382 | 12 | 9 | -28.7% |
| Willie Calhoun | 309 | 21 | 15 | -29.1% |
| Manny Machado | 587 | 32 | 23 | -29.5% |
| Trey Mancini | 602 | 35 | 24 | -31.3% |
| Jesse Winker | 338 | 16 | 11 | -32.6% |
| Stephen Piscotty | 357 | 13 | 8 | -34.8% |
| Ryan McMahon | 480 | 24 | 14 | -42.3% |
The results disappoint those counting on Ohtani to be a viable hitter on days he doesn’t pitch. It’s also bad news for Machado, another year removed from Camden Yards.
