As we are just about at the half-way point it’s time to look again at closers and the respective strategies that help make, or break, our teams.
While there are a number of different strategies employed, they can basically be categorized one of four ways.
- I’m grabbing a pair of stud closers, let the rest of the league deal with my crumbs;
- I’m up for a top notch closer, but I’ll take my second one after the initial run has finished;
- I’m riding the closer run; once the run starts, I’m going to join or else I’ll be left out watching. I know closers, so I’ll get my second one after the run but before I throw up in my mouth and take Fernando Rodney; and
- Closers? No way, those guys are too volatile. I’ll wait until the first 20 or so are gone and pick up a couple of the remaining guys, plus I’ll troll the waiver wire and pick up someone when one of you fools’ closers loses his job.
This year, most sources listed four potential stud closers: Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and Corey Knebel. The top three have met all expectations. Knebel dealt with a hamstring injury and missed significant time. He’s reasonably healthy now and dealing.
| Name | ADP | Saves | ERA | WHIP | Strikeouts |
| Kenly Jansen | 36 | 19 | 2.27 | 0.90 | 36 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 45 | 22 | 2.32 | 0.87 | 44 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 63 | 22 | 1.07 | 0.86 | 57 |
| Corey Knebel | 67 | 7 | 3.57 | 1.02 | 27 |
The next group of closers (fifth through ninth round run) included eleven relievers. Each came into the season with a reasonable hold on the closer job (although Giles had his share of warts). This group has been hit or miss. No one could have anticipated Roberto Osuna’s legal issue. Felipe Vazquez has been up and down and certainly hasn’t been worth his draft spot, thus far. Giles has, like in the World Series’ run last year, lost his job intermittently, and Hector Neris has been outright bad, earning a demotion to the minors.
On the positive side, Edwin Diaz has outperformed all relievers to date, Brad Hand, until recently, has been dominant, and Sean Doolittle (still healthy) is having a dream season.
| Name | ADP | Saves | ERA | WHIP | Strikeouts |
| Roberto Osuna | 76 | 9 | 2.93 | 1.11 | 13 |
| Felipe Vazquez | 86 | 14 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 35 |
| Edwin Diaz | 89 | 27 | 2.77 | 0.92 | 64 |
| Cody Allen | 90 | 16 | 3.73 | 1.09 | 38 |
| Ken Giles | 93 | 11 | 4.39 | 1.20 | 27 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 98 | 13 | 2.23 | 1.02 | 37 |
| Brad Hand | 104 | 21 | 2.82 | 1.02 | 56 |
| Wade Davis | 111 | 21 | 4.40 | 1.27 | 33 |
| Sean Doolittle | 120 | 21 | 1.60 | 0.53 | 44 |
| Alex Colome | 128 | 12 | 4.45 | 1.32 | 30 |
| Hector Neris | 140 | 10 | 6.00 | 1.52 | 35 |
The final twelve closers all had issues, whether it be health, job security, trade concerns, or a combination of each. This group went between the eleventh and sixteenth round, and as expected included a few clinkers along with a few serviceable picks.
Mark Melancon is, and has been, unreliable due to heath concerns. Archie Bradley never got the closer’s job. Kelvin Herrera was dealt, and is now setting up for Washington. Greg Holland missed camp, then missed everything but opposing bats and was soon ousted from the closer job. Blake Parker has been the closer, not the closer, the closer, and is now not the closer. Stay tuned because by tomorrow, he might be the closer again.
It hasn’t been all negative for this group, though. Fernando Rodney is once again proving everyone wrong, putting up all-star caliber numbers. Brandon Morrow, when healthy, has been lights out. Shane Green seems to get the job done, albeit with a high ERA.
| Name | ADP | Saves | ERA | WHIP | Strikeouts |
| Arodys Vizcaino | 151 | 15 | 1.82 | 1.15 | 33 |
| Brandon Morrow | 159 | 16 | 1.59 | 1.15 | 25 |
| Jeurys Familia | 169 | 14 | 2.53 | 1.31 | 37 |
| Blake Teinen | 171 | 17 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 45 |
| Mark Melancon | 182 | 1 | 2.08 | 1.15 | 7 |
| Archie Bradley | 187 | 3 | 2.19 | 0.95 | 30 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 193 | 14 | 1.57 | 0.84 | 24 |
| Greg Holland | 197 | 0 | 7.71 | 2.20 | 15 |
| Brad Brach | 207 | 10 | 3.90 | 1.77 | 33 |
| Fernando Rodney | 220 | 17 | 2.73 | 1.14 | 29 |
| Shane Greene | 221 | 19 | 3.57 | 1.19 | 40 |
| Blake Parker | 239 | 9 | 3.32 | 1.21 | 47 |
For the most part, there has been less job changing among closers thus far. Osuna (legal issues), Giles (part time role), Neris (can’t get anyone out), Melancon (injury), and Holland (he was just awful), have lost their jobs. Other than Osuna, none of this can be considered is a surprise.
There have been very few quality closers in the free agent pool. Thus far, only Bud Norris (14 saves) and Hunter Strickland (13 saves) have more than seven saves. Hence, trolling for saves has not been an effective strategy.
Overall, how have the closer strategies worked?
- Pair of Studs. With the top three closers meeting expectations, owners have gotten exactly what they expected.
- One stud, one solid closer. With the exception of Osuna, the top eight closers, and twelve of the top fourteen have met expectations. Again, these owners have likely gotten exactly what they expected as well.
- Riding the Run. The run pick was likely fine (see above), but thereafter, it is a crapshoot for this strategies’ next closer. From closer numbers 15 through 27, only five have value. So, unless this owner was fortunate with the second closer choice, this strategy might not have worked thus far.
- Two warm bodies and trolling thereafter. Rodney and Greene have been great. Brad Boxberger (ADP 312), Brad Ziegler (ADP 321), Joakim Soria (ADP 329) and Keone Kela (ADP 339) have double-digit saves. A lucky end-game closer picker could certainly compete. However, considering the dearth of saves in the free agent market, there isn’t enough FAAB to make this strategy successful if the owner was expecting to compete for a mid-spot in the saves standings.
With drafters taking more closers in waiting in the draft, and with less volatility, it might be time to reconsider the way you draft closers.
Best of luck,
Buster
