Managing a fantasy baseball team requires patience, but being too patient can often backfire. At some point, owners need to accept the reality that a player who they drafted and expected to be productive but has so far disappointed isn’t in the midst of a prolonged slump. Rather, he’s in the midst of a plain old bad season.
If the underachieving player was an early-round pick, it’s a lot easier to be patient, as there’s a reason why he was an early-round pick. Trading these players at a discount wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense unless you can pinpoint a reason for their struggles and aren’t confident that they will bounce back. If the market still values the player as an elite option, maybe you should look into trading him, but this scenario is unlikely. If anything, the trade market tends to overvalue recent results.
When it comes to middle-round and late-round picks, the decision of whether or not to cut bait, either via trade or by simply dropping the player, is tougher. I can be too patient at times, especially with guys who I specifically targeted in drafts, so I went into this season vowing to be a little more reactionary. But the 2019 stories of these players illustrates the risk of being too reactionary.
Robinson Cano
At the price of $19, Cano was one of my favorite buys in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction. If he had not performed well following his mid-August return from a PED suspension last year, maybe I would have been more hesitant to invest in him this season. But a .317/.363/.497 slash line with six homers and 27 RBIs in 41 games eased any concerns.
For the first three months of his inaugural season with the Mets, Cano performed so poorly that if his name wasn’t Robinson Cano, he would have been sent to the minors, or maybe even released. What was I thinking spending 19 bucks for this guy? I stuck with him, though, and the veteran second baseman is finally showing some signs of life at the plate, batting .292 with five homers since the beginning of July. While Cano’s best years are surely behind him, at least there’s now a chance that his 2019 campaign won’t be a completely lost season.
Rougned Odor
Since recording a combined 63 homers and 29 steals from 2016-2017, Odor hasn’t been much of a mixed-league factor, posting a mediocre stat line last season and batting just .187 with 10 homers, 37 RBIs and 36 runs scored through the end of June this season.
July has been different, as Odor has launched eight homers this month to go along with 21 RBIs and a respectable .260 batting average. Although the Rangers’ keystone man is unlikely to ever be an asset in the batting average department thanks to his utter lack of plate discipline, he has already matched last season’s home run total of 18 and is on pace to record double-digit steals for the fourth straight year. But despite the useful counting stats, Odor is simply too streaky of a player for my liking, and the fact that his NFBC ADP this spring was 124 even after his sub-par 2018 season leads me to believe that he will always be a bit overrated in the fantasy game.
Yuli Gurriel
Although Gurriel owners didn’t have huge expectations for him heading into 2019, he was drafted among the top-200 in NFBC leagues. Just for laughs, Gurriel was taken ahead of Carlos Santana, Pete Alonso and Josh Bell. Funny, right? Anyway, Gurriel struggled mightily in April but improved in May and June. How is he doing in July? Not too bad. Through 19 games this month, the Cuban import boasts a .403 batting average with 12 (yes, 12!) homers and 28 RBIs. Look, Gurriel isn’t going to maintain this month’s home run pace. Not even close. That said, he is hitting more fly balls and making more hard contact than ever before, so Gurriel owners shouldn’t be overly motivated to trade him unless the return is significant. So, if you own him, you’re likely better off keeping him. If you don’t own him, you’re likely better off not trading for him because the price will be steep.
Manuel Margot
Margot opened the 2019 season in an everyday role, but his cold bat combined with a crowded Padres outfield soon resulted in a loss of playing time. Then came July. Entering Friday, Margot is getting on base at a .418 clip this month, tallying three homers and five steals in the process. Margot was a prolific base stealer in the minors, so it’s encouraging to see that he’s finally swiping bags on a more consistent basis at the big league level.
Back in February, I grabbed Margot in the 19th round of the Mixed LABR draft. I was a little light in speed and hoped that he could chip in some steals. From April through June, the Margot pick was looking like a total waste, and I had countless opportunities to drop him. But I resisted the urge. The stolen base standings were so bunched up that it didn’t seem wise to give up on Margot.
Like I said, managing a fantasy baseball team requires patience.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
