We’re over a week into the enigmatic mess that is the 2020 MLB season and the early going has been rife with surprise performers. An outfielder with an ADP of nearly 250 finds himself atop the hitter leaderboard in Mike Yastrzemski, and Tyler Chatwood, with an even later ADP, is third in points among all pitchers. These cases are only two examples of how unpredictable the leaderboards are at the beginning of the season and demonstrate the importance of being active on the waiver wire. Odds are Yastrzemski and Chatwood are already rostered in your league, but it isn’t too late to pounce on other lesser-known players who have started out hot and can improve your team.
Adding a player can be as simple as deciding on the top available scorer, however it’s wiser to weigh a few of the top options with an emphasis on recent performance due to the hot streak being more likely to continue. A player who performed well this past weekend has a better chance to stay hot and earn your team more points than another who came out of the gates strong and has cooled since. Below I have provided a few more tips to help you decide which players are worth adding.
My number one factor when contemplating free agent hitters is recent batting average (BA). For example, Donovan Solano and Kyle Seager are among the highest scoring hitters with 34 points apiece and appear to be equals on the surface. A quick look at BA immediately distinguishes Seager as the better play as his .294 BA is far more sustainable than Solano’s league leading .448 clip.
My next glance is to strike outs, which aren’t as straightforward as BA but have the potential to be just as impactful. In 2019 the league average strikeout rate (K%) was 23%. This number is important to keep in mind as a barometer, however hitters should be evaluated based on their career K% compared to their more recent rate. If the deviation is large, regression to the mean is likely. When comparing players with similar point totals, I’m usually inclined to opt with the one who owns a lower K% as overall their performance is less susceptible to volatility. For example, teammates Fernando Tatis Jr. and Tommy Pham both have 31 points this season but Tatis already has nine more strikeouts. A look at K% reveals Tatis is at 35.7% while Pham is at 15%. Pham may lack the Tatis’ explosiveness, but overall he’s the steadier play.
When evaluating free agent pitchers, it’s easiest just to go with top option as performance is inherently streaky and there’s a history of mediocre names sustaining stretches of dominance. While it can be that easy, digging into the stats is safer and I tend to look at K/9 and WHIP. Any starting pitcher on waivers with a K/9 greater than 9 or WHIP below 1 is unlikely to sustain those rates. I realize the current sample size is incredibly small and most of the top adds will regress, but the ones who are able to achieve their points with closer to league average rates are more likely to maintain their performance.
Relievers are a bit more challenging. Opportunity matters most and that’s nearly impossible to predict – just look at Detroit closer Joe Jimenez who leads the league in saves and paces all relievers in points. My advice for this season would be to add whoever is hot, and when that ends move on to the next guy.
Keeping all this in mind, below I’ve highlighted players currently in the top 50 who are available in 50% of leagues on house formats. All these guys should be rostered in more leagues and they probably will be given more time. It’s important to remember that you don’t need to keep these guys the whole season for them to be assets.
Hitters
J.P. Crawford SS, Sea | 43.5%
Crawford is a former top prospect and roster worthy post-hype production is entirely possible. His .475 OBP and 10 K% will regress, but his .515 slugging is sustainable meaning that while his 4.0 fantasy points per game will surely decrease he should be able to stay relevant.
Colin Moran 3B, Pit | 46.3%
Moran’s lofty point total is driven by a league-leading 5 home runs, and while that won’t continue his BA and K% are actually in line with his career norms. Healthy rates outside of slugging means Moran is more likely to contribute for longer than other waiver options and is worth an add.
Teoscar Hernandez OF, Tor | 37%
Hernandez has experienced stretches of production in the past which is encouraging for his prospects this season. A high K% has typically kept him on waivers, but that has been cut down slightly this season and his current .321 BA isn’t unrealistically high. A low walk rate is reason for concern but a prime line up slot on an exciting Blue Jays team means Hernandez could stick.
Brian Goodwin OF, LAA | 17%
Goodwin had an under the radar 2019 with a .796 slugging and that progression has continued into 2020. His rates are inflated and due for regression but a K% and BB% similar to last season and a stronger Angels line up means Goodwin should be able to remain roster worthy even once he regresses.
Pitchers
Kyle Freeland SP, Col | 16.1%
Freeland followed up a breakout 2018 with a disastrous 2019 that saw his ERA rise almost 4 runs. Looking past last season is a challenge, but Freeland currently sits as pitcher 7 which shouldn’t be that difficult to believe considering his recent dominance. As a pitcher, he’s probably somewhere between 2018 and 2019s production and that is enough to be on more rosters.
Spencer Turnbull, SP Det | 20.7%
While his 11.45 K/9 will come down, Turnbull’s 1.00 WHIP is encouraging for sustained success. Just last season Turnbull posted a 3.31 first half ERA prior to falling off post All-Star break so we know he’s capable of success and deserves to be rostered in more leagues.
Drew Pomeranz RP, SD | 32.7%
After a 2019 deadline trade to Milwaukee Pomeranz posted a 2.39 ERA, .911 WHIP and 15.4 K/9 and that dominance has continued into this season. He has both of San Diego’s saves and recently rescued the team from a Kirby Yates blow-up. Currently RP 3, Pomeranz is pitching like his former Milwaukee teammate Josh Hader and needs to be on more rosters.
Josh Tomlin RP, Atl | .7%
I never expected to be writing about Josh Tomlin in 2020 yet here we are. The Braves swingman has been surprisingly effective in his 3 outings, posting eight Ks and a .35 WHIP without surrendering a run through 5.2 innings. Tomlin has manager Brian Snitker’s trust, evidenced by a top 15 mark in relief innings pitched last season, and a young staff with high expectations in Atlanta means the veteran Tomlin is due for a heavy usage role again.
