We have some busy weeks ahead, with the Sally and Midwest League prospects yet to review, coupled with a week I want to spend on some sleeper selections from my Top 250 Prospect List (now on sale for a meager $6.95). But this week let’s review some of the spoils of the Winter Meeting movement.
Just within those Winter Meeting machinations, there are a lot of potential ways we can look at things, so I am going to break down assessments into three categories: free agent signings, big name trade impacts (such as Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Kemp), and future prospects involved with all that trading.
As it is, there are a lot of those FA’s inked over the past week, so let’s start with them, recognizing there could be a return visit when names like J.D. Martinez and Jake Arrieta have settled their 2018 tidings.
What makes today’s list interesting is the focus on relief pitching, for nearly all of today’s profiles are on bullpen participants. With pitching so volatile, and so few starters delivering more than 30 starts let alone 200 innings, strength in the pen is paramount. But what makes this first spate of signings notable is the number of former/potential closers involved.
Pat Neshek (2 years, Phillies): Neshek is kind of a yo-yo, having been swapped by the Phils to the Rockies last trade deadline, now migrating back to Philadelphia. Though Neshek only has eight career saves — one last year — his 2017 was wicked good with a 5-3, 1.53 mark over 62.3 frames with 89 whiffs and a ridiculous 0.899 WHIP (48 hits, six walks) making the 37-year old a perfect kind of $1 bullpen gamble in a deep league.
Fernando Rodney (1 year w/2019 option, Twins): Rodney, who turns 41 just when camp breaks, has been an ostensible “has-been,” written off in 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2016. All the tenacious righty did was convert 39 saves going 5-4, 4.26 with 65 strikeouts over 55.6 innings. Would I pay prime closer bucks for Rodney? No. Would I grab him for $8 or so? In a deep league, absolutely, since saves are indeed saves.
Brandon Morrow (2 years, Cubs): Morrow delivered as solid a year for the NL Champs as did Neshek, going a perfect 6-0, 2.06 over 45 appearances and 43.6 frames. Finally a permanent reliever after seven years of struggling as a starter, the right-hander looks like he might be the closer at Wrigley. But with Carl Edwards, Jr. already present and the signing of Steve Cishek, coupled with rumors that the Wrigleyites are pursuing Wade Davis, it could not so much be closer by committee as closer potpourri to finish games in 2018. As in, whatever flavor suits Joe Maddon’s fancy.
Joe Smith (2 years, Astros): I remember seeing a comment, pre-free agency, where someone asked what Stan Musial would get as compensation these days, perhaps Canada? Well, the 33-year-old Smith gets $15 million to pitch for two years, coming off a 3-0, 3.33 season, throwing 54 innings with 71 strikeouts and a 1.037 WHIP, which is not bad, but is it worth $7.5 mil?
Hector Rondon (2 years, Astros): It is unclear why Rondon, who at 29 is the youngest reliever among today’s players, only gets $4.25 million a year — $3.25 less than Smith — but that is what his 4-1, 4.24 year over 57.3 innings last year with 69 whiffs and a 1.221 WHIP amounted to. I hope Rondon, who gets to share time with Smith, Ken Giles, Will Harris, and Chris Devenski, will get work, but he is not of much roto value. However, again, his team is deep in relievers supporting a new trend.
Luke Gregerson (2 years, Cardinals): A two-year deal with an option for 2020, Gregerson waltzes into the Cards pen with the closest thing to what looks like owning a closer deal of anyone signed, save Rodney. Gregerson had a “meh” 2017, where the 33-year old went 2-3, 4.57 over 61 innings, striking out 70 but allowing 62 hits including 13 homers while assembling a scary 1.34 WHIP. That is worth $5.5 million a year, so you try to figure out the relative value.
Drew Smyly (2 years, Cubs): Smyly is one of those players whose buzz and talent never seem to reconcile with his actual results, as his career 31-27, 3.74 line over 570.3 innings with 552 whiffs and a 1.199 WHIP demonstrates. Smyly won’t be back from Tommy John surgery until the second half of the year, but maybe moving to the National League could be the tonic that turns the lefty loose once he recovers. The Cubs rotation is potentially as speculative as their pen, with Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana likely rotation mates, while Tyler Chatwood could well factor.
Zack Cozart (3 years, Angels): All beware the Angels, who have a new infield and now can ease Kyle Cowart into the infield as they ease Luis Valbuena out, handing the hot corner to the former Red with a pretty good .254-18-61 mean over 162 games. Cozart should fit in just perfectly with the suddenly interesting and competitive Angels. This looks like a great and complementary addition to the Halos.
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