Winning a high stakes league is challenging. It takes a reasonably good draft, a lot of luck, avoidance of multiple major injuries, and significant good fortune on the waiver wire.
Things were much different back when the NFBC started. Back then, tablets were not commonplace. Wi-Fi wasn’t readily available, and it wasn’t uncommon to find people drafting out of magazines. Getting an advantage at the draft was possible. Almost two decades later, most drafters have similar information and similar, if not identical, projections.
Getting steals in the first few rounds is impossible. If you look at the ADP of the NFBC main event, you will find that each of the top 60 players was drafted in every league no later than the 82nd pick, each of the top 30 players was drafted no later than the 40th pick, and each of the top players was drafted no later than the 26th pick.
This means, at least for the first few rounds of the draft, most teams are evenly matched. Naturally, as the draft continues, teams begin to separate themselves. However, due to the nature of the snake draft, that separation is not necessarily pronounced.
Differences can be, and are, made during the FAAB process. There is often a group of quality, undrafted, players available throughout the season, and more that are cut during the season for a variety of reasons. This week, I wanted to look at those undrafted players and demonstrate how effective these players can be for a team.
The NFBC Main event is a 15-team, 30-round draft, with a total of 450 players drafted. To make up an undrafted team, I used any player not chosen within the NFBC’s ADP first 450 overall.
| Runs | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | ||
| C | Francisco Cervelli (457) | 24 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 0.257 |
| C | Devin Mesoraco (490) | 18 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 0.225 |
| 1b | Mitch Moreland (492) | 38 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 0.288 |
| 2b | Max Muncy (undrafted) | 39 | 20 | 38 | 2 | 0.281 |
| 3b | Christian Villanueva (undrafted) | 31 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 0.229 |
| SS | Kike Hernandez (549) | 34 | 15 | 32 | 1 | 0.232 |
| CI | Miguel Andujar (460) | 36 | 12 | 38 | 1 | 0.282 |
| MI | Nick Ahmed | 36 | 10 | 33 | 2 | 0.226 |
| OF | Juan Soto (undrafted) | 25 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 0.312 |
| OF | Ben Zobrist (575) | 40 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 0.296 |
| OF | Jurickson Profar (518) | 47 | 8 | 45 | 8 | 0.247 |
| OF | Albert Almora | 46 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 0.329 |
| OF | Mark Canha | 32 | 11 | 32 | 0 | 0.255 |
| UT | Jesus Aguilar (594) | 41 | 19 | 56 | 0 | 0.299 |
| Johan Camargo (543) | 28 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 0.256 | |
| 515 | 167 | 532 | 19 | 0.268 | ||
| Austin Meadows (undrafted) | 15 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 0.295 | |
| Jake Bauers (undrafted) | 14 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0.242 | |
| W | S | K | WHIP | ERA | ||
| P | Zach Eflin (undrafted) | 7 | 0 | 63 | 1.08 | 2.97 |
| P | Joey Lucchesi (554) | 4 | 0 | 60 | 1.22 | 3.26 |
| P | Jaime Barria (668) | 3 | 0 | 44 | 1.23 | 3.39 |
| P | Mike Montgomery (453) | 3 | 0 | 45 | 1.21 | 3.55 |
| P | Mike Fiers (undrafted) | 5 | 0 | 68 | 1.22 | 3.79 |
| P | Andrew Suarez (not drafted) | 3 | 0 | 72 | 1.23 | 3.89 |
| P | Bartolo Colon (undrafted) | 5 | 0 | 56 | 1.22 | 4.76 |
| P | Bud Norris (510) | 3 | 16 | 48 | 0.95 | 2.95 |
| P | Hunter Strickland (462) | 3 | 13 | 29 | 1.23 | 2.84 |
| 36 | 29 | 485 | 1.18 | 3.49 | ||
| Joe Jimenez (456) | 4 | 2 | 45 | 1.15 | 2.93 | |
| Kirby Yates (484) | 3 | 2 | 41 | 0.82 | 0.79 | |
| Matthew Boyd (451) | 4 | 0 | 79 | 1.23 | 4.58 | |
| Nick Kingham (undrafted) | 2 | 0 | 37 | 1.21 | 4.69 |
To account for injuries, I’ve added one additional hitter to the team total. So, how does this team compare to the other 450 NFBC teams drafted, teams that have 30 picks each before any of these players were chosen?
The team is weak on all counting pitching categories, placing dead last in strikeouts, and near the bottom in saves and wins. Surprisingly, it is among the top 25% in both ERA and WHIP. Offensively, the team it in the top ten in homeruns and average, and above the midpoint in RBI. Predictably, it is in the bottom two in steals and near the bottom in runs.
Overall, this team would rank 334th out of the 510 teams. Let that one simmer a bit. A team without a first round pick. Heck, a team without any picks, is now outpacing 175 other teams. Granted, I was able to pick and choose from all the players not drafted, and this was akin to 20:20 hindsight with unlimited FAAB, but it does go to show that even a poor draft can be rectified through the FAAB process.
Clearly, steals are tough to come by post draft. Even those players with some available steals, with the exception of Profar, come with numerous warts, such as low HR, RBI and runs figures. Predictably, home runs are abundant post draft, with at least eight players who will hit 20+ available.
So, what can you take from all this? Well, first, if you don’t get your steals in the draft, you might not get them at all, and if you do, it will be at a cost to your other counting categories. Pitching is getting harder and harder to pick up post draft. While closers can be had, effective starting pitching can’t. For every Zach Eflin, there are a dozen Dylan Coveys. As unpredictable as starting pitching is, it’s probably wise to invest even more than you might have thought on getting a solid core.
Best of luck,
Buster
