If you follow me at CreativeSports, you know I am a lifelong Cardinals fan. Therefore, it’s not hard to understand why my heart skipped a beat when I read a report Monday that St. Louis is the frontrunner in the Juan Soto sweepstakes. Soto, the young superstar, turned down a $440 million contract extension offer and is now reportedly going to be traded.
With the MLB trade deadline next week, the rumor mill has been heating up. Every baseball fan (reality or fantasy) is reading these reports with interest, but the rumors must be taken with a grain of sand. Frankly, this rumor isn’t even worth the grain. If Soto is traded, it won’t be to the Cardinals – either before or after the August 2 deadline.
Two months ago, I posted a column entitled “Being a homer has its perks.” In that column, I made the case for how a homer has inside knowledge about his team that others don’t. This homer knows the Soto trade won’t happen in St. Louis. Washington may have identified the Cardinals as the best trading partner, but the Cardinals won’t give them what they want.
The Cardinals are loaded with this year’s No. 1 prospect, Nolan Gorman, future top prospect Jordan Walker and outfielders Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Harrison Bader – all under team control. Those putting the Cardinals as the frontrunner for Soto ahead of the Padres, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, and others point to the alluring package of players they can offer.
Those who don’t know the Cardinals as well as I do would say this is no different than the blockbuster deals the Cardinals have made to acquire the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. But a closer look would reveal some significant differences. The Cardinals fleeced the Diamondbacks and the Rockies in getting these two Gold-Glove stars. Lightning won’t strike three times.
I couldn’t believe it in December 2018 when I heard that Arizona had agreed to trade Goldschmidt for a package of players headlined by Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly. Just more than two years later, the people in the St. Louis front office did it again, convincing their counterparts in Denver to trade Arenado for Austin Gomber, Mateo Gil, Elehuris Montero, Tony Locey and Jake Sommers.
Could the front office in our nation’s capital be as dumb as these two front offices? I don’t think so. The Nationals have already made it clear that they want a king’s ransom for Soto. They need to find another dumb front office like the New York Yankees. The Yankees are said to be willing to trade breakout starting pitcher Nestor Cortes, infielder Gleyber Torres and three top prospects.
Even if the Cardinals are able to add the Nationals to the list of clubs they’ve fleeced, there remains a problem with them signing him long term. Soto has already turned down a $440 million offer. I can’t imagine the Cardinals paying Soto $30 million dollars a year for 15 years. Granted, they are paying Arenado $32,874,847, a year, but that deal is set to expire in at the end of the 2026 season.
The Cardinals would be advised to spend their time dialoguing with the Reds about a trade for Luis Castillo. Again, anyone who follows this team knows that they are desperate for a top-of-the-rotation starter, and Castillo is just that. The 29-year-old is in the middle of one of his best seasons, sporting a 2.77 ERA. What’s even more appealing about Castillo is that he has one more year of team control.
While you’re on the phone with the Reds front office, why not see if they’ll throw in Tyler Mahle? Here is another solid middle-of-the-rotation who also has another year of control in his contract. Mahle flashed a ton of upside last year. He’s coming back from a shoulder injury, but that only depresses his cost. Castillo and Mahle in the Cardinals rotation moves the needle more than Soto.
Soto could certainly be more valuable from a fantasy perspective if he lands in the right place. Imagine him hitting cleanup behind Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman Los Angeles? Of course, hitting ahead of Goldschmidt and Arenado in St. Louis wouldn’t hurt either. And Yankee fans are surely dreaming of him in the same lineup with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
But from a fantasy perspective, any trade involving a pitcher has more impact. Wherever Castillo lands makes him significantly more valuable. The same can be said for teammate Mahle. And then there’s Frankie Montas. The A’s right-hander has put together another good season, with a 3.16 ERA (3.24 FIP) while striking out more than one batter per inning. I’d love to see him in Cardinal red.
Another player who’d be a great fit for the Cardinals as a middle-of-the-rotation starter is Jose Quintana. The 33-year-old Pirates lefthander is having a bounce-back year and could help the Cardinals down the stretch. I’m not sure if either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati would trade with their division rivals, but I’m not sure why they wouldn’t if a trade involves some of that Cardinals farm system blood.
Here are some other big-name players that could be changing addresses in the next week:
WILLSON CONTRERAS, C, CUBS
The Cardinals won’t be interested in acquiring Contreras – even if they could – but you can bet some other teams will be. Contreras has expressed a desire to stay in Chicago, but it doesn’t seem like the Cubs want to give him a big-money extension. If nothing else, Contreras could be a good rental piece for a contender like the Mets, or Padres, both needing a good backstop.
JOSH BELL, 1B, NATIONALS
Bell is having a career year in Washington. As of July 25, he was slashing .305/.388/.496 with 13 home runs, 22 doubles, 51 RBI and 49 runs scored. He’s also a plus defensive first baseman and a switch hitter. All that should hold plenty of value for the Nationals, who are going to blow up their team one way or the other. The Astros and Mets are both said to be pursing the 29-year-old first baseman.
BRYAN REYNOLDS, OF, PIRATES
Rumor has it that the Yankees are interested in replacing Joey Gallo with a batter who doesn’t strike out every other time he comes to the plate – Reynolds. The sweet-swinging switch-hitter started slowly this season but was coming around before he landed on the IL. Back in the Pirates starting lineup Monday, Reynolds is a career .284 hitter who has already clubbed 15 home runs in 2022.
ANDREW BENINTENDI, OF, ROYALS
The 27-year-old is in the middle of one of his better offensive seasons, with a .318/.389/.400 slash line. He doesn’t have much power but he has hit 14 doubles and three home runs (as of July 25). The Yankees are also interested in acquiring the Kansas City outfielder, as are the Phillies.
IAN HAPP, OF CUBS
Happ is reportedly also on the Yankees short list. Happ is attractive for three reasons – he’s a switch hitter, he’s got positional versatility (also attractive to fantasy managers) and he’s under team control for another season. In addition to the Yankees, rumor has it that the Padres are trying to pull off a deal that would bring both Happ and Contreras out to the west coast.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. You can follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
