There is a wealth of excellent in-depth prospect coverage today with many terrific resources for dynasty and keeper managers to uncover new talent. However good the coverage, I find the level-headed analysis can occasionally leave me frustrated. A prospect expert will conclude a sparkling review of a minor-leaguer with the conclusion “and they have the upside of an SP4 or SP5.” Personally, I’m more interested in hunting elite, upper echelon talent. To that end, I thought a fun exercise would be to take the top 20 hitters from 2024 main event ADP and seen what their statistics looked like in their first taste of Double-A baseball.
Chart 1: Double-A Player Statistics
Unsurprisingly, the average line of these current days stars is overwhelming at the Double-A level. There are a few interesting observations within this dataset, but initially it’s worth highlighting that these players, on average were 20 years old at Double-A with a wRC+ of 142. On a more granular level:
- Aaron Judge was the only player to be 23 years old at Double-A, and Trea Turner was on the only 22-year-old
- Elly de la Cruz and Fernando Tatis Jr. have become early round studs despite an elevated K% at Double-A. This can perhaps be explained by their elite speed scores.
- This group demonstrated precocious plate discipline. Even within a young, highly athletic group of hitters, these prospects averaged a 10% BB%, with Freddie Freeman’s 6.5% mark representing the lowest in the whole sample.
- wRC+ matters a lot. The only hitters at 100 or lower were an 18-year-old Bryce Harper (100 wRC+), a 19-year-old Freddie Freeman (80 wRC+) and Jose Ramirez and his 7.3% K% (88 wRC+).
Can we use this table to create a target list of potential future early round picks based on their Double-A performance? The below chart uses the following filters: Age < 21, BB% > 9%, K% < 22%, Spd > 4, wRC+ > 135.
Chart 2: Potential Early Round Stars
These filters have generated an impressive list. Gunnar Henderson has likely already cemented himself as a top-20 batter, while Jackson Holliday is a consensus top prospect. The rest of the list has some more intriguing targets to dig into. Dylan Beavers’ has seen his numbers at Double-A decline this year while repeating the level as a 22-year-old, which makes me skeptical of his appeal. Luis Matos has already reached the big leagues, and while we should be careful to write off a 22-year-old, he has the physical tools (power and speed) to justify an early-round type of impact. Marcelo Mayer, the fourth overall pick in 2021 draft, has seemingly put his injury plagued season behind him and looks every bit future shortstop Boston is hoping for. Hao-Yu Lee, the return for Michael Lorenzen last year, has had a breakout season thus far in 2024. Terrific plate discipline has been a hallmark, but if he can maintain the .221 ISO he’s shown to start this season, he should rapidly ascend the prospect ranks.
