Thanksgiving marks an unofficial pivot point for NHL teams. By the end of November, teams should know if they’re going to be in position to contend for a playoff push, and we start to get an idea as to who are going to be buyers/sellers for the rest of the season. While the “Thanksgiving mark” is arbitrary, it does hold some merit for fantasy purposes. There’s enough of a sample size to know the strengths and weaknesses of your team, and figure ways to improve. This could mean cutting bait on under-performers, selling high on players while the window is still open, or identifying some players/positions to target in trades.
It should be no surprise that Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are the top two fantasy scorers at this point in the season. I’ve written about the Oiler’s offense a few times already this year, and I’m continuing to buy shares of anyone who’s playing significant minutes in Edmonton. The Carolina Hurricanes are another team I’d target for offense. Sebastian Aho is an elite center, and Andrei Svechnikov looks to be breaking out as a superstar. Tony Deangelo should continue to produce in this lineup, as one of the top point-scoring defenseman (provided he doesn’t try to fight his own goalie, as he did with the Rangers). Seth Jarvis is the next player I’d be looking to breakout in this Carolina lineup. A first round pick in 2020, Jarvis is playing on the top line alongside Aho and Svechnikov. It’s hard to find a player who wouldn’t succeed on that line, and Jarvis has the skill to maximize the opportunity.
The other top offenses in the East thus far have been the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals. For the Panthers, the Aleksander Barkov injury certainly hurts, but I believe this lineup will be deep enough to stay afloat. Sam Bennett, who’s had a strong start to the year on the second line, should see a boost playing alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and a resurgent Anthony Duclair. More intriguing, however, is the new second-line in Florida. Anton Lundell, another 2020 first rounder, should bump-up the depth chart, centering two solid wingers in Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe. Lundell could be worth a look in deeper leagues.
Meanwhile, I’ve been more surprised by the offensive prowess shown by the Capitals. I thought Alex Ovechkin would struggle to produce at his usual pace with the injury to long-time center Nicklas Backstrom. This couldn’t have been further from the truth. Not only is Ovechkin still scoring goals at an elite pace, he’s also recording assists at a rate he hasn’t come close to in nearly 10 years, much to the delight of those who bought low on Tom Wilson and Evgeny Kuznetsov. That said, this is still an aging team, and I doubt this level of production will continue over the course of a full season. Ovechkin will still score, though I’d expect the assists to taper off, and Tom Wilson offers enough of a points/physicality balance to stay valuable. However, Backstrom’s eventual return will likely hamper Kuznetsov’s production. He’s a name I’d consider selling, while the windows still open.
The New York Rangers are another team that have been impressive to start the year, sitting near the top of the Metropolitan division. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has been sensational and is solely responsible for stealing at least a couple wins already. Lead by Norris Trophy-winner Adam Fox, the Rangers young defensive unit have also shown improvement in the early season, which will only increase Shesterkin’s value in net. Offensively, Chris Kreider has provided tremendous value, averaging over a point per game. As a Rangers fan, I love how Kreider has looked so far, but I’m more cautious from a fantasy perspective, as he’s never scored more than 28 goals/53 points in a season. Kreider can certainly make a case to surpass these numbers, but I’m doubtful that he can maintain his current elite pace and would consider selling high if I got the right offer. Meanwhile, Fox, Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad still look like fantasy studs and there remains some buy-low candidates in this lineup. The first overall pick in 2020 (which has become a theme here) Alexis Lafreniere has been a disappointing fantasy asset early in his career, but he’s frankly just too good to not improve. When he starts to score, look for his lineman Filip Chytil, a talented player in his own right, to see a boost as well. Kaapo Kakko, the second-overall pick the year prior, also got off to a slow start, but has shown signs of breaking out as he continues to play alongside Panarin. Like Lafreniere, Kakko has top-end offensive skill, and I would fully expect him to finish the year with strong scoring numbers. Snag him if he’s still available in your league.
As we shift to under-performers, the question becomes whether it’s time to move on from a player or identify them as a buy-low option. As a team, the New York Islanders are likely the biggest disappointment so far, though not having a home arena yet would certainly have an impact. Even when the Islanders are playing well, they tend to win on defense, which doesn’t carry a whole lot of fantasy value. Ilya Sorokin is likely the most valuable fantasy asset for the Islanders. The second-year goaltender seems to have taken control of the starting job ahead of veteran Semyon Varlamov and has performed well so far. I’d expect his value to go up as the Islander’s find some consistency and could be one of the top goaltending options moving forward. Offensively, when the Islanders do win, scoring tends to be spread throughout the lineup, leaving few top-end fantasy options. In the past, Anders Lee would’ve been the highest upside player here, but I’m hesitant to believe he can get back to a 50+ point pace in his age 31 season, coming off a torn ACL. Matthew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier should offer a high enough floor to be valuable moving forward, so they’d be worth targeting in a buy-low scenario from a jumpy owner.
I’ve discussed Montreal as another slow-starting team, and I just don’t believe they have the firepower to turn their season around. Other than Nick Suzuki, I wouldn’t be holding onto anyone from the Canadiens. In the West, Colorado and Chicago are starting to bounce back from slow starts and have shown more offensive consistency. With Nathan Mackinnon out for the Avalanche, Nazem Kadri should see a boost in scoring chances alongside Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, so he’s worth in add if still available. Devon Toews is also worth a look on the defensive end, as he’s been receiving top-paring minutes alongside Cale Makar.
For the Blackhawks, you’re not likely to get players like Patrick Kane or Alex Debrincat at a discount. However, Kirby Dach and Dominik Kubalik are both cheaper, yet high-upside options who will be central pieces in Chicago’s scoring rebound. I’m still wary of Marc-Andre Fleury in net, but he’s admittedly been looking better in recent games, and could still be a viable fantasy goaltender if Chicago can keep winning.
One final team who’s been impressive in the West are the Los Angeles Kings. Like the Capitals, I was surprised by their fast start, as they have an aging core and some question marks depth-wise. Anze Kopitar hasn’t shown any signs of aging yet and has been one of the league’s leading scorers. While he can clearly remain a valuable fantasy contributor, it’s hard to imagine him keeping up this pace over a full season. This is likely the highest his value will be, so he’s someone I’d be looking to sell. Players like Phillip Danault, Alex Iafallo, and Adrian Kempe are all very solid, but I think their fantasy ceilings are limited. Ultimately, I think the Kings can be a potential playoff team in the Pacific Division if they keep getting production from their depth pieces, but they don’t have many names that are particularly exciting for fantasy purposes.
