Two down, two to go, one still in progress. That sums up the state of my 2021 fantasy baseball draft season with the most challenging draft, the Tout Wars 15-team Mixed Auction, less than one week away. But it is now, after the completion of my second draft, when I can benefit quite a bit by comparing the two. Most importantly, I’m looking at the players whose draft positions differed the most, because these are the players I need to think about the most. Where do I stand? Am I comfortable drafting them near the early end of the range? How about the later end? Or would I rather avoid them entirely? So, using the LABR Mixed draft and my TGFBI draft (both 15-team mixed leagues) as points of reference, here are a handful of players who warrant special attention.
Luis Robert
LABR: Round 4, Pick 6
TGFBI: Round 2, Pick 13
After getting off to a hot start, Robert faded badly down the stretch last season, batting a meager .136 with one homer (his only extra-base hit) and seven RBIs in September. However, he did steal five bases in the final month and finished his rookie campaign with 11 homers and nine steals, suggesting that a 30/30 season in 2021 is within the realm of possibility. Considering that he was a .312 hitter in the minors, there’s reason to believe that his .233 batting average was an aberration, a product of a small sample size combined with a lack of familiarity with big league pitching. Although he does need to cut down his strikeout rate, there’s clearly a lot to be excited about with Robert, though selecting him 28th overall, ahead of fellow outfielders Marcell Ozuna, Starling Marte and George Springer, is a little too aggressive for my liking.
Javier Baez
LABR: Round 6, Pick 8
TGFBI: Round 4, Pick 14
Plate discipline isn’t exactly Baez’s strong suit, so relying on him to consistently hit for a strong batting average is probably asking too much. That said, I think it’s safe to give him a mulligan for last season’s .203 average, which was fueled in large part by an unlucky .262 BABIP. The counting stats were still decent and 2021 will be his age-28 season, so it’s not like we’re talking about someone who is past his prime years. Would a .275-30-90-90-10 line shock me? Not really. But the strikeouts and the streakiness will always present a risk. I’d take a chance on Baez at the LABR price. But at the TGFBI cost, I’m passing.
Luke Voit
LABR: Round 5, Pick 2
TGFBI: Round 6, Pick 13
I’ll admit it. Last year at this time, I was a Voit skeptic. If Voit was so good, why did the Cardinals, a highly respected franchise when it comes to talent evaluation, give up on him? But coming off a season in which he led the majors in home runs (22) while ranking 4th in RBI (52), it’s pretty clear that this guy is for real. Voit’s ability to make hard contact while walking at a high rate will help him limit the slumps and maximize the counting stats. Oh, and hitting in a stacked lineup while playing half of his games at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium doesn’t hurt. At pick #88, I’m all in. But at 62nd overall, I’m only in if playing in an OBP league.
Joe Musgrove
LABR: Round 10, Pick 7
TGFBI: Round 8, Pick 3
Man, am I glad I was able to draft Musgrove in the middle of the 10th round in LABR. Since that February 16th draft, the Musgrove hype has only intensified. Considering that his March NFBC ADP is 123, the TGFBI cost of 108th overall doesn’t look too crazy. And there’s every reason to be giddy about the new Padres righty, mainly the change in pitch mix that has led to an increased strikeout rate and the immeasurable psychological boost that comes with getting traded from a rebuilding team to a title contender. I’m usually not one to pay a premium price for a pitcher with a thin big league track record, but I might make an exception for Musgrove.
James Karinchak
LABR: Round 8, Pick 12
TGFBI: Round 6, Pick 1
Speaking of thin big league track records, Karinchak’s track record spans a total of 32 1/3 innings. Those 32 1/3 innings have been pretty, pretty good. I mean, what’s not to like about a 2.51 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a shade under 17 strikeouts per nine innings? The 25-year-old is fully expected to open the season as the Indians closer, but he’s been inconsistent so far this spring, at times struggling with command. Maybe Karinchak will finish 2021 as a clear-cut top-10 closer. He certainly has the stuff to do so. The problem is that he’s being drafted as if he already has multiple dominant seasons as a major league stopper under his belt. Closers went off the board earlier than expected in TGFBI, which explains the significant difference in draft position. But even as an eighth-rounder, Karinchak isn’t a sure thing. I’d feel a lot better if he was my second closer as opposed to my top option, and unless you plan on drafting two closers within the top-120 overall, you’re not getting Karinchak as your second closer. I guess this is just a long way of saying that it’s unlikely he will be on any of my teams.
Alright, time to start mapping out my Tout Wars auction plan for Saturday.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
