If you take away only one thing from this week’s installment, draft only Running Backs and Wide Receivers in the first seven rounds. The difference in production between the best and worst quarterbacks is a lot less than the difference between the best and worst tailbacks and wide outs. It will be very tempting when you see a QB slip a round or two past their ADP. In that moment you will wonder how you can pass up that value. I’ll tell you how: by recognizing the opportunity costs. Sure, you might gain edge at that position over everyone else in the league, only to give that edge back, and then some, when you depend on the leftovers at WR and RB. Now, that doesn’t mean go ahead and draft a player that you don’t like.
Once in a while, you reach a stage in a draft in which no RB and no WR is appealing. There’s an exception to every rule, but over many years of drafting I’ve regretted taking that Quarterback or Tight End ‘value’ more often than not. It’s tempting, and I’ll probably succumb to that temptation in a couple of drafts, but the high percentage play is to fade QB’s and TE’s until round 8.
Yes, that means that I won’t own many shares of the top 5 projected Tight Ends this year. Rob Gronkowski(ADP of 24) gets hurt too frequently. Jimmy Graham(64) will be catching pass from Aaron Rodgers now, but I can’t remember the last time, if ever, a Packer TE produced at a level commensurate to his draft position. Evan Engram(62) will still be valuable, but the sophomore won’t come near the level of production we saw last year. Odell Beckham missed most of the season and Sterling Shepard missed a third, and with Saquan Barkley’s receiving skills, Engram is due to see a considerable drop in number of targets.
Travis Kelce(31) and Zack Ertz(42) are certainly both very solid options, and yet the opportunity cost of passing on a high end #2 RB or a high end #2 WR is not worth it. If I want a high end tight end, I’m going to wait until round 7, or preferably 8, and take a chance on Greg Olsen(70), IF….IF he’s completely healthy and looks good in camp. Apart from that, Delanie Walker(77) is in the perfect spot to snag around the same time. Later on, Jordan Reed(100) is at a nice price, provided he looks strong during the preseason. It goes without saying that if you take a chance on Reed, you need to have a decent backup plan for the weeks Reed is on the shelf. Don’t feel the need to reach at this position at any point. If they’re going early, I’ll stock up at other positions. I’m totally fine rolling the dice on OJ Howard(139) or David Njoku(140), who both have the size and athleticism to make some noise this year.
Even if that doesn’t work out, there are 32 teams in the NFL and only 12 teams in your NFFC league (unless it’s the classic 14-team format), each only starting one TE. That leaves plenty of room on the waiver wire for someone useful to emerge during the season. Charles Clay(170) also gets a mention as a solid TE2. Yes, Buffalo’s offense will stink, but someone has to catch passes. AJ McCarron is inexperienced as a starter and could use Clay as a safety valve behind a very suspect, and possibly very porous offensive line. Lastly, I’m fading Jack Doyle(122) in 2018. I don’t expect the Colts to use their tight ends as much in the passing game with Rob Chudzinski gone.
Stay tuned. In the coming weeks we’ll continue to explore other positions, while still keeping one eye on baseball.
Follow Greg @liquidhippo.
