For many fantasy baseball owners, the halfway point of the season is a time for self-critique, and since we’re nearing that point, my thoughts have already wandered back to my drafts and what could have been. This exercise has become a yearly ritual for me, especially with respect to my auction drafts, where I had more control when shaping my roster as compared to my snake drafts.
In the Tout Wars Mixed Auction, Josh Bell was high on my target list to fill the CI slot. Unfortunately, Yonder Alonso was higher, so I drafted him instead. Now, every time I check the box scores and see that Bell has hit yet another home run, I get a little queasy. But rather than dwell on missed opportunities, I prefer to think positive.
My preparation process for auction drafts consists of mapping out an ideal team that I expect will fit under the $260 budget, assigning rough dollar values to each roster slot with certain players in mind. I then list several cheaper fallback options in order of preference, assigning dollar values to each of those players as well. If the bidding on my top target exceeds my dollar projection by more than a buck or two, I’ll move on to my second choice, repeating this process as I work my way down the priority list.
So, let’s forget about the Josh Bell/Yonder Alonso blunder. Instead, let’s focus on a few examples from the Tout Wars auction where I’m relieved that I did not get my top choice. Listed below are the top choices, with the players I did buy in parenthesis — along with some thoughts on what we can expect from both going forward.
3B: Travis Shaw (Mike Moustakas)
Although Shaw’s batting average has fluctuated significantly from year to year, he entered 2019 having put together two straight seasons of at least 31 homers and 86 RBI, so he seemed like a safe choice from a power production standpoint. But when the bidding on Shaw exceeded $15, I pulled out, later winning Moustakas for only $11. Three months later, Shaw has been one of this season’s biggest fantasy disappointments (.172 AVG, 5 HR, 11 RBI in 50 games) and hasn’t even been playing every day since coming off the IL earlier this month.
Playing time could continue to be an issue for Shaw if his bat doesn’t heat up, with Hernan Perez in position to take away some of his at-bats. Meanwhile, the perennially underrated Moustakas (.279 AVG, 21 HR, 45 RBI in 66 games) is on pace to post his first ever 40 HR/100 RBI season. Maybe Moose’s production will slow down a bit, but both of those benchmarks are very attainable. I’ll continue to draft him until his market price rises to the level where it matches his actual fantasy value.
OF3: Stephen Piscotty (Hunter Renfroe)
Not having enough endgame money to buy Piscotty, who went for a bargain price of $5, was one of my biggest draft day regrets. The A’s outfielder was fresh off a career-best season in 2018 in which he launched 27 homers to go along with 88 RBI, easing any concerns about a lackluster and injury-plagued 2017 campaign. I viewed Piscotty as an ideal high-floor OF3 and would have paid as much as $10 to draft him if I could. Well, it simply wasn’t meant to be.
Renfroe was also a target, but he was much further down the list. I liked his chances of reaching the 25-home run plateau, but a crowded outfield in San Diego was a concern. In weekly lineup leagues, managing hitters who are stuck in platoon situations is annoying, to say the least. Good thing I missed out on Piscotty, who is on pace to finish this season with a respectable 20 home runs but only 63 RBI. Renfroe has already tallied 23 homers, not only earning an everyday spot in the Padres lineup but establishing himself as one of the game’s top power threats. At this point, it would be a major surprise if he does not exceed the 35 home run mark. As for Piscotty, while I’m still a believer in him, simply assuming that he could duplicate last season’s numbers has turned out to be nothing more than wishful thinking.
SP2: Zack Wheeler (Masahiro Tanaka)
Wheeler’s dominant second half last year (9-1, 1.68 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) catapulted his fantasy stock to the point where he was on average the 24th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts this spring. Finally, after years of injuries and inconsistency, the former top prospect was living up to the hype. As an SP2, he was a sure thing, right? As it turned out, my league mates were even more giddy over Wheeler than I was, as he went for $22, well above the $16 I budgeted for him. Fifteen starts later, the Mets righty sports an ugly 4.94 ERA and a mediocre 1.33 WHIP, and he’s allowed 14 home runs, though his strikeout rate stands at an impressive 9.8 K/9. Wheeler owners are understandably frustrated, but I’m cautiously optimistic that he can turn things around. The high home run rate has played a big role in his poor ERA, but bad luck has contributed as well, as evidenced by his 3.83 FIP.
As for Tanaka, he will always carry some injury risk, but so far, so good (3.23 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). He does serve up a few too many homers, but I’m hoping that most of them will be of the solo variety.
SP5: Joe Musgrove (Kyle Gibson)
A popular breakout candidate heading into 2019, Musgrove appeared well on his way towards rewarding owners who spent a late-round pick on him, as the Pirates righty lowered his season ERA to 1.54 following his final April start. Then May happened. In six May outings, spanning 30 innings, Musgrove allowed 27 earned runs on 38 hits, and he has yet to regain any sort of consistency this month. After missing out on the 26-year-old in all of my drafts this season, I was bummed. Not anymore.
That said, my long-term view of Musgrove hasn’t changed much. While he doesn’t post high-end strikeout numbers, he also doesn’t walk many batters. The ability to routinely throw strikes is a trait that I value quite a bit when looking at any young pitcher, so I’m nowhere near ready to jump off the bandwagon. While Musgrove went for $4, I was able to purchase Gibson for only $2. I liked him as a decent back-of-the-rotation option but figured that 2018 would turn out to be his best season, so I wasn’t overly enthused. Maybe I should have been, because the Twins righty is proving that last year’s breakout was no fluke.
The added bonus of drafting Gibson? With the best winning percentage in the majors entering play on Wednesday, the Twins are a pretty fun team to watch.
Zach Steinhorn is the 2016 Mixed Auction Tout Wars champion. Follow him on Twitter @zachsteinhorn.
