Four weeks are in the books, and as such we now have a meaningful sample of games to show us how good or bad our players are. This week we’ll start off with a couple of tips followed by some players to keep an eye on this weekend.
This year most of my teams have more starting running backs than I can plug into my starting lineup, which leads to the dreaded but inevitable start/sit decisions even with ‘must start’ players. One thing I consistently look at when determining who to roll with for the ground attack is the rushing defense of opposing teams, but instead of fantasy points allowed or rushing yards allowed, I like to look at opposing yards per carry by opposing RB’s.
The former is a trap since teams milk the clock, sit on leads by handing the ball off, and can pile up yardage even against a mediocre run defense. Obviously it’s prudent to also scan the schedule of a potential ‘target defense’ and see who they played so as not to penalize them for struggling against Todd Gurley or Alvin Kamara. None of this is perfect, as there is still plenty of potential for noise to enter into the numbers. For example, it’s a lot easier to stop the run when you stack the box. Still, this is a better approach than flipping a coin. Film study is the best prescription, but if you don’t have time for that, give opposing YPC a look as well as try to predict game flow (whether an offense will be trailing and forced to pass, or winning and keeping it on the ground to keep the clock moving) will go a long way towards helping you make an informed choice.
Obviously, if you rostered Travis Kelce, then he is automatically your starting Tight End every week, but if you drafted a couple/three TE’s late you’ve got another decision to make. In this case fantasy points allowed is a decent tool to guide your thinking, that’s because there’s often something in the defensive scheme and personnel (ie. Linebackers that struggle covering Tight Ends) that lends itself to yielding catches and yards to this position.
Players to Watch
Giovani Bernard is out two to four weeks with an MCL Sprain and Joe Mixon is just coming off two-week absence due to a knee issue that has bothered him since Week one. The sophomore from Oklahoma is supposedly 100%, but if he experiences a setback, Mark Walton is the next man up, and should get a few extra looks as the Bengals ease Mixon back in.
David Moore looked solid in the preseason, but Russell Wilson has only targeted the rookie thrice this season. This is not someone you can start right away, but don’t be surprised if the Seahawks try to get the youngster more involved in the offense moving forward. Moore could become a fantasy bye week replacement or even enter the WR3 discussion down the road.
Tyler Eifert was placed on the IR, opening up an opportunity for CJ Uzomah or Tyler Kroft in an offense on the upswing. I’m giving the edge to Uzomah, but either could emerge. Both are still available in many NFFC Leagues.
As of this writing, Randall Cobb has been ruled out, and both Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison are listed as questionable. I was surprised at how little interest there was in Marquez Valdes-Scantling during this week’s waivers given that the top three in Green Bay might not play. J’Mon Moore and Equanimeous Saint Brown could also see meaningful snaps.
Given the largely barren landscape that is the Tight End player pool, Jeff Heuerman might be worth a look for those that are desperate to plug a hole. Jake Butt was placed on IR, opening up more looks for Heuerman.
Good luck this week.
Follow Greg @liquidhippo.
