After this week, we are just over 40% of the way through the NFL’s regular season but have now surpassed the halfway point in most fantasy football leagues. What does this mean? There have been enough games to reasonably assess your team’s strengths and decide whether a championship run is a feasible possibility. If you have a winning record, you’re on the right track but need to remain persistent in making transactions to improve your team. However, if you’re below .500, changes need to be made as only so many more losses are affordable. In most leagues, an 8-5 record guarantees playoffs and at the very least 7-6 might cut it. Let’s say you’re 3-4. That means your team can only afford to lose one, maybe two more games. Anything worse than 3-4 most likely requires winning out to make the playoffs, a challenging task in a normal season let alone one as random as 2020. Essentially, this boils down to making win now moves if your team has a losing record.
The simplest way to accomplish this is to sell off injured stars to the better teams in your league in exchange for players to help you win now. Winning teams can manage a few losses now if it means acquiring a player that will help them win in the playoffs. The other option is to flip one good player in return for two solid options. I did this recently in one of my leagues and, while I typically want to be the one acquiring the best player in the deal, feel like I won the trade. In this particular league, injuries have tested my roster depth so I traded Kareem Hunt for James Conner and Jamison Crowder. Conner is a downgrade from Hunt but easily worth the cost of adding Crowder. Every roster is different and every GM has their own, unique opinions, and all of this needs to be considered when looking to improve your struggling team.
Rookie QBs and the Ageless One Shine
With only one game remaining this week, the four quarterbacks to score more than 30 are Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Murray is a no-brainer start and doesn’t need to be discussed further. Herbert delivered in a favorable matchup against Jacksonville to produce 347 yards and 3 TDs with an additional 66 yards and a score on the ground to reach 38.48 points on the day. The rookie is averaging 29.6 FPPG over the last three weeks and has a safer floor thanks to an unexpected rushing load of 5 carries per game. Following Herbert is Brady, who had 36.86 points on 369 yards passing and 5 total touchdowns. Brady has been up and down, but his home road splits explain that to a certain extent as he’s averaging 18.5 FPPG at home and nearly 24 FPPG on the road. Burrow nearly led yet another Cincinnati comeback behind 440 total yards and 4 scores and has scored at least 15 points in every game except for a road tilt in Baltimore. He appears to be a safe weekly option aside from divisional games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
On the low end of the quarterback spectrum we find Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger, both of whom failed to reach 13 points. In Mahomes case it’s simply a fluke performance as the defense scored twice and the game was in hand early and now is probably the best time to try and acquire him at a discount. Roethlisberger had his second consecutive subpar performance, and this week can’t be attributed to game script. His uncharacteristic 3 picks, after only one turnover all year, almost let Tennessee back into the game and the past two weeks have shown he’s more of a matchup-based option.
Fill in Running Backs Deliver
Of the seven running backs to score 20 points this week, four are backups thrust into a starting role: Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmunds, Jamaal Williams and Giovanni Bernard. Wilson had quite the rollercoaster of a game as he unexpectedly out-touched presumed starter Jerick McKinnon 19 to 3 on his way to 120 total yards and 3 rushing TDs before suffering a high ankle sprain on his final score of the day. Considering the injury, he’s worth a bench stash in all leagues but isn’t the top waiver priority as initially expected. Edmunds, Williams and Bernard each scored near 21 points filling in for Kenyan Drake, Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon and illustrate the importance of backing up your RB1s. Jones and Mixon should be back as soon as next week but the extent of Drake’s injury is unknown at this point.
James Robinson, Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley are the other backs to boom. Robinson has nearly cemented his status as the top waiver add of the season with 31.7 points on 137 total yards and 2 scores and is a high end RB2 thanks to his safe floor. By Kamara’s lofty standards, 22.8 points is a down game (29.5 FPPG), but more than anything this shows just how good he’s been. Gurley and all other Falcons probably wish he had 16.1 instead of 22.2. Regardless, he scored twice more to reach 7 rushing touchdowns in seven games and is averaging a healthy 19 touches per game which makes him a reliable option despite less than 4 yards per carry.
Among the few big name backs to struggle this week, none is more noteworthy than Ezekiel Elliott. GMs need to be concerned as he’s averaged 9 FPPG in the two games since Dak Prescott’s injury compared to 22.4 FPPG prior, and backup Andy Dalton’s concussion only makes matters worse. Since exploding for 36 points week 1, Josh Jacobs is averaging only 12.4 FPPG since, a total that’s beneath David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift. That being said, this weeks 6.1 points came against Tampa’s stout front and there are favorable matchups ahead so I would actually advise buying low on the sophomore if possible. Devin Singletary has totaled only 16.5 points over the last three weeks and, after being out-touched by Zack Moss this week, it appears Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are the only reliable fantasy options in Buffalo.
Distinguishing Which Receivers Are Reliable
A number of quality receivers had solid weeks that don’t need to be discussed because their status isn’t in question. For example, the three of the top five scorers at the position are Tyler Lockett, Davante Adams and AJ Brown, all of whom exploded but are already being started in every league and will cost a substantial amount to obtain. The other two highest scorers, Diontae Johnson and Tyler Boyd, are far more reasonably priced. Finally healthy, Johnson turned a team high 15 targets into a 9/80/2 line and 29 points. The sophomore hadn’t played a full game since week 2 and was off most radars but is averaging 20.6 FPPG in three healthy contests. Often overlooked, Boyd hauled in 11 of 13 targets for 101 yards, a touchdown and 27.74 points and is averaging nearly 18 FPPG in six games since week 1 which would put him at WR10 on the year. Cole Beasley also falls into this category and is now averaging 14 FPPG, never falling below 9.8, after an 11/112/0 line today yet is only rostered in 39% of ESPN leagues.
On the other hand, Julian Edelman, DK Metcalf and Mike Evans all disappointed this week. Edelman had only 1 reception for 13 yards and is averaging a minuscule 4.25 FPPG since week 2 and can be dropped in most leagues. Metcalf had been extremely reliable with at least 14 points every game until this week’s 4.3 point, 2 catch output. Evans has only 3 catches for 47 yards over the last two weeks but this can at least partially be explained by a nagging ankle injury after coach Bruce Arians confessed Evans probably shouldn’t have played in week 5’s Thursday night matchup with Chicago. Tampa has an arsenal of weapons with Antonio Brown looming but better performances should still be ahead for Evans, who’s probably more of a low-end WR2 moving forward.
Three widely available receivers to keep an eye on are Nelson Agholor, Brandon Aiyuk and Rashard Higgins. Agholor had his best game of the year with 5 catches on a team leading 9 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown, has scored in three straight games and is averaging nearly 17 FPPG in that span. Aiyuk had his best receiving game of the year with a 6/115/0 line and is now at 12 FPPG despite somewhat volatile production. Higgins is only worth a flyer if Odell Beckham misses significant time but showed what he’s capable of with 110 yards this week and was a prominent member of Cleveland’s receiving corps as recently as 2018. All three are available in more than 75% of ESPN leagues and should only be considered in leagues of at least 12 teams.
