Week 6 Overreactions: A lopsided Sunday Slate
Through 12 of 14 games, the biggest storyline has been the sporadic results of each contest. Every matchup concluded in either a one-score final or at least a 17-point blowout, results that suppressed fantasy totals on the day. Byes and two Monday night games featuring high scoring teams also contributed but don’t let that distract from a quiet day that demonstrated the importance of consistency and upside.
Sluggish QBs Breakout
Of the five quarterbacks to top 28 points, four started out cold before big performances Sunday. Deshaun Watson nearly lead Houston to a comeback victory behind his position-best 32 points on 28/37 passing for 335 yards and 4 touchdowns with an additional 26 yards on the ground. This signals a return to QB1 production, especially with three favorable matchups over the next four weeks. Matt Ryan’s 31.64 points ends a three game skid where he totaled only 30.76 and shows he’s a safe option in favorable matchups moving forward. Carson Wentz’ fourth rushing score kept a mediocre passing day afloat, contributing 11 of his 29 points. Wentz’ counterpart Lamar Jackson had his first 100-yard rushing day and reminded everyone of his capabilities. Before today, Jackson had been averaging under 20 FPPG compared to nearly 28 last season.
The fifth member of the 28-point club is Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill, who is now averaging 23.5 FPPG – good for sixth most among quarterbacks. On Sunday he tossed for 364 yards and 4 scores, proving he’s more than just a game manager and showing a resurgent 2019 second half wasn’t a fluke.
A number of relevant fantasy quarterbacks experienced poor days. Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford were all started in at least 40% of ESPN leagues yet scored fewer than 13 points. In perhaps his worst NFL game, Rodgers’ completed only 46% of his passes for 160 yards and 2 interceptions in totaling just 3.8 points. This performance raises concern to his quarter season rebound and those who roster him should look to have a backup if they don’t already. In Roethlisberger and Stafford’s’ case, low totals were a result of lopsided scores and dominant running games, as both their teams held 24-point leads into the fourth quarter. Neither had bad games; their teams just didn’t need them to put up big numbers.
Quiet on the Running Back Front
It was a quiet Sunday for backs as a substantial number of the top options were either on bye or play Monday night. Only three were able to surpass 20 points and distanced themselves as easily the best options on the week: Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift and Ronald Jones. Henry is making a case for the number one running back in all of fantasy thanks to 264 total yards and 2 scores Sunday, including an electric 94-yard touchdown. He’s averaging nearly 29 FPPG over his last three contests after scoring a combined 24.5 in weeks 1 and 2. Swift finally delivered on the hype that made him a popular breakout candidate with a 14/116/2 line to score 27.3. 8.3 YPC can’t be expected on a consistent basis but Sunday’s 14 carries were more than weeks 1 through 4 combined and were only one fewer than Adrian Peterson received, signaling the rookie should be a consistent part of the Detroit offense moving forward. Jones took advantage of Leonard Fournette’s third straight absence to produce 100 yards on the ground yet again on his way to 26.1 points. This is the perfect sell-high opportunity with Fournette’s impending return, even if it appears Jones has earned an increased share of the offense.
The most disappointing performance of the day was easily Alexander Mattison, who appeared primed for a breakout against a terrible Atlanta defense while filling in for Dalvin Cook. He was started in more than 75% of ESPN leagues and was ranked RB6 by the experts yet scored only 4 points on the day after the Vikings fell behind early and were forced to the air. This is most likely an aberration performance but nevertheless was a giant letdown in a golden opportunity.
Backs Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley and Mike Davis also had below average days. Hunt scored 7.7, after averaging 17.6 FPPG, on 15 touches for 57 yards in an awful all-around game for Cleveland in which they totaled only 220 yards of total offense. This came against a vaunted Pittsburgh defense and better matchups lie ahead on the schedule. Atlanta’s passing attack was clicking all day which meant Gurley didn’t need to be relied upon and Brian Hill was utilized more than usual due to the score. He produced 67 total yards on 23 touches but a subpar 2.4 YPC tells the bigger story. Davis was able to save his day with a rushing score but contributed 55 total yards despite averaging over 100 since Christian McCaffrey went down. He also hauled in just two catches after averaging 7.5 over the last four games, most likely the result of going against a stout Chicago defense but the lack of catches is concerning.
Lots of Quality Wide Out Performances
Unlike running backs, a substantial number of receivers had solid days yet only six were able to top 20 points. Minnesota rookie Justin Jefferson leads the way with 39.6 on a 9/166/2 line, his second 30-point performance of the season. It’s obvious there’s enormous upside here but until his consistency improves he’s no more than a fringe flex option. Following Jefferson is the familiar Julio Jones with 33.7 points on 8 receptions for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns. Finally healthy, Jones looks like the guy we’ve come to expect and GMs who bought low are already reaping the benefits.
Three players from the Houston-Tennessee high-scoring affair were able to eclipse 21 points in Will Fuller, AJ Brown and Brandin Cooks. Both Texans had at least nine targets and a TD on their way to top five outings while Brown’s 5/56/2 line and second consecutive performance of at least 21 shows he’s returned to form after missing three weeks. Keelan Cole is the sixth member of the 20-point club with 6 catches for 143 yards. Cole is averaging 13.5 FPPG and has seen at least five targets in every game this year, showing Gardner Minshew is consistently looking his way.
Three more receivers scored at least 18 points and are available in more than 50% of leagues: Travis Fulgham, Tee Higgins and Adam Humphries. Fulgham reeled in 6 of 10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown to score 19.5 and looks to be the clear first option in Philadelphia. After consecutive weeks with WR1 production he should be on every roster. Higgins has been a consistent option lately with double digit totals in each of the past four weeks (15.7 FPPG in that span) including 6/125/0 for 18.7 points on Sunday. Cincinnati is going to be throwing a lot this season and Joe Burrow trusts his fellow rookie, evidenced by at least seven targets in each of the past four weeks. After 18.4 points on 6 receptions for 64 yards and a score, Humphries is now averaging 13.25 FPPG in four games this year. He deserves to be rostered in more than 4.3% of leagues.
