I’ve heard a lot of talk in the industry about the importance of winning now. Don’t plan for the fantasy playoffs or fantasy post-season, just take things week-to-week. I understand the sentiment, and certainly in stand-alone leagues the advice carries more weight, but in national contests such as the NFFC, if you make the overall playoffs in weeks 13-16, it’s not simply a matter of winning two games in a four team playoff, you have to fend off dozens of other very good teams.
This year in the NFFC Primetime there are 48 leagues comprising 576 teams. The best three teams from each league automatically earn a berth in the overall. If you make the chase for 150k at the end, there will be a minimum of 143 other cashing teams you have to overcome to win the big carrot. Not to mention wild card teams that finish in the top 15% will also join the fray. You can’t ignore the short term, as you have to get there first, but if you don’t simultaneously prepare for the home stretch you’ll limit your upside and lower your chances of reaching the ultimate finish line. It’s not an either or. You have to do both.
What does this look like in practice? You might have to eschew a backup RB for an upside WR to maximize your potential ceiling in Weeks 14-16. For instance, I drafted Adrian Peterson in just about every single league this year. The future Hall of Famer has generated a nice return on the 9th round investment his services cost, checking in as a low-end RB2. Peterson, however is nursing a number of injuries including a dislocated shoulder. Though he swears he’ll be on the pitch this Sunday, we won’t know for certain until Sunday. Even with an active status this weekend, the NFL’s single season rushing yards record holder could be one hit away from an extended absence.
Nevertheless, I elected to pickup Tre’Quan Smith rather than handcuffing AD with Kapri Bibbs. Weighing into the decision was New Orleans’ fantasy playoff schedule. In week 14, the Saints travel to Tampa Bay(arguably the most exploitable secondary in the league), and Week 16 the Saints entertain the Steelers’ below average pass defense in the Big Easy. Both games have shootout potential and the rookie’s ceiling on a per game basis is the moon. The Saints exciting deep threat needed merely three targets to make a strong WR1 showing in Week 5. The sky is the limit here in two of the three biggest fantasy weeks of the season.
This might be digging a little too deep here, but in the coming weeks I will keep an eye on who gets targets in Carolina once Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey are fed. Whoever emerges as the number two wideout deserves some attention. Cam Newton has spread the wealth in the Panthers passing attack and there is no standout WR2 at this point, but if you have NFL Game Pass, watch Curtis Samuel’s touchdown catch and run in the first quarter against the Giants. Hailing from my home state, I saw the former Buckeye flash that same talent in the Horseshoe. Whether it is Samuel, Torrey Smith, Jarius Wright, or DJ Moore, one of these could become an asset down the line. From week 9 on the Panthers take on the Buccaneers twice, the Steelers once, then get to host New Orleans and Atlanta the final two weeks of the fantasy season. Yes, Greg Olsen may return soon, but it remains to be seen if the former stud but aging TE can stay on the field.
Jack Doyle has been ruled out for the fourth consecutive week. Eric Ebron is on track to play with a questionable tag and a long list of ailments. That means one of my former sleepers that never panned out represents the next man up in an offense steered by Andrew Luck, who just starting to flash his former elite form. The former basketball player isn’t worth a pickup just yet, but keep Erik Swoope on your radar and track his usage with TY Hilton and Doyle missing time. Swoope is merely one injury away from a decent sized role in the Colts offense.
Todd Haley and the Cleveland Browns haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard, but after a tough stretch on the schedule the good times are about to role with arguably the most favorable schedule for wide receivers thru week 10. The next five on tap are the Chargers, the Buccaneers, the Steelers, the Chiefs and the Atlanta Falcons. That makes Rashard Higgins a sneaky stash even though he might miss a couple more games. An impatient owner might have cut him (understandably), but if you have room he might become useful.
Good luck this week and follow me @liquidhippo.
