Another week, another game postponed, yet the NFL rolls along with a high scoring week as customary. With 11 games in the books, a glance at the leaderboard yields an unexpected trio of receivers paving the way: Chase Claypool, Travis Fulgham and Brandin Cooks. This leaderboard alone epitomizes the 2020 season. With even more uncertainties than a standard year, it’s easy to concentrate on the inherent randomness, but focusing on the few reliable outcomes instead proves more important than ever. One thing I’ve found myself doing is playing the matchups more regularly.
With an abbreviated offseason, there are a handful of teams who are clearly behind on at least the defensive side of the ball. This group includes the entire NFC East, Falcons, Panthers, Vikings Lions, Jets, Jaguars and Texans. Carolina is the only team among this group with a winning record which means players facing one of these teams need to be upgraded, and if two are matched up against each other look for an especially high scoring affair. Obviously, this strategy isn’t 100% effective, but I’ve found it’s a great way to successfully stream kickers at the very least.
Abundant Disappointing Performances
Despite yet another week with big point totals, quarterbacks underperformed as a whole, and none scored more than 30 points. Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady were all started in more than 50% of ESPN leagues but scored below their average by an average 8.5 points. Ryan was easily the worst of the three, producing only 6.94 points on 226 passing yards and no TDs, and after two big weeks to start the season, he’s averaging just over 10 FPPG over the last three weeks. Carolina is solid against QBs and WRs but the worst in the league against RBs, so plan accordingly in the coming weeks. On a day where Baltimore completely dominated, Jackson wasn’t relied upon and scored only 13.5 points on 19/37 passing for 180 yards and 2 scores. The 2019 MVP will perform better in more competitive weeks and you’re starting him regardless, but now is the time to buy low if possible. On Thursday, Brady produced his second bad game of the season with 253 yards and 1 TD. Consistency appears to be the main issue as Brady has one great week, two solid and two subpar.
Positive performances of the week go to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger. Fitz scored 27.6 points, second at the position, in a dismantling of the 49ers that saw him throw for an efficient 350 yards and 3 TDs. Since week 1, Fitzpatrick is averaging 24.6 FPPG, which would put him at QB7 on the year. It’s easy to overlook Carr because he lacks upside, but his 23.98 points are the third instance this year he’s scored over 20 and he’s completed more than 70% of his passes in every game this season. Roethlisberger needs to be on more rosters as he’s been perhaps the most consistent QB this year (totals of 22, 18, 19 and 21) and is averaging over 20 FPPG. Big Ben is available in approximately 30% of leagues; go get him if he’s out there.
Replacement Backs Contributing
Albeit with some of the top running backs yet to play or on bye this week, Mike Davis paces the position followed by Todd Gurley and Miles Sanders. Davis 29.9 points came on 25 touches for 149 total yards and 1 TD and a notable 28.6% target share. Davis role will diminish once Christian McCaffrey returns but he’s earned enough touches to remain relevant. Gurley’s throwback performance can be chalked up to Carolina’s league worst run defense that allowed him to rush for 14/121/1 with an additional 4 receptions for 29 yards. He’s scored an unsustainable 5 touchdowns in 5 games, including some amazing matchups, and is a prime sell high candidate. Sanders had his best game of the year with 23.9 points on only 13 touches for 99 total yards and 2 scores. Contrary to the preseason belief, the sophomore has been treated as a workhouse back and is averaging more than 100 total yards per game.
Chase Edmunds should be the top waiver priority at the position after turning 8 touches into 92 total yards and a score to produce 20.2 points, his third week of at least 13. Arizona is giving Edmunds more work than expected and he would be an RB1 should anything happen to Kenyan Drake.
The most disappointing performances of the week have to be Clyde Edwards-Helaire and James Robinson. It’s hard to fault either of the rookies, as they’ve scored at least 10 points in every game this season, but week 5 resulted in season low outputs despite extremely favorable matchups. The main culprit for CEH has been a lack of scoring as he’s averaging a healthy 4.25 YPC but only has one TD on the season; better weeks are ahead. Robinson won’t be able to maintain his top ten RB pace but is a weekly starter regardless thanks to being Jacksonville’s one consistent offensive weapon.
Young Receivers Explode
Of the thirteen receivers to score at least 19.8 points this week, eight are in their first or second year and eight were started in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues. This is the result of studs Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and Julio Jones ailing and a combination of inconsistency at the position and below average teams needing to funnel the ball to their best pass catcher, as eight of the top eleven’s teams have a losing record.
As mentioned earlier, the top three scorers for the week are WRs and completely unprecedented. Claypool and Fulgham were unranked by ESPN’s panel for week 5 while Cooks had a lowly 49.3 average. Claypool flashed in week 2 with an 84-yard TD reception and built on that performance with 7/110/3 line with a 32% target share and 3 carries for an additional score to produce 42.6 points. Fulgham was promoted by the Eagles last week and hauled in a crucial 42-yard score on his second career reception and was able to top that with a 10/152/1 line on a 36% target share for 31.5 points. The most impactful number for each is the dominant target share and both will deservedly be the consensus top waiver adds.
Aside from the established Adam Thielen, DK Metcalf, DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley, among the remaining nine receivers mentioned all come with their own upside. Brandin Cooks’ 30.1 total was a reminder of his big play ability and sporadic production, considering he scored 0 last week. Jamison Crowder has been the lone bright spot for the Jets this year and his 22.5 FPPG in 3 games ranks as WR2 and he has over 100 yards receiving in every game. He should be locked into line ups as long as he’s healthy. Similar to Cooks, Darius Slayton has supplied inconsistent production in his short career and this week’s 8/129/0 line embraces that trend. Slayton has at least 20 points in two games but has scored below 8 in the other three.
Preston Williams showed why many GMs were so high on him in the preseason with 4 catches for 96 yards and a TD for 20.6 points, although that’s good for 45% of his production on the season. He needs to repeat before he can be trusted. First rounders CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs both had big games in complete opposite fashion, as Lamb produced 8/124/0 while Ruggs contributed 2/112/1. Lamb’s 11 targets were more than double the next highest Cowboy and he is now averaging 17.12 FPPG. Having Andy Dalton at QB is a hit to his value but Lamb should be in the flex conversation on a weekly basis. Ruggs on the other hand is only a home run threat at this point as he’s averaging less than 4 targets per game. Another speed threat, Marquise Brown had his best game of the year in catching 6 of 10 targets for 77 yards and a TD. The sophomore has been underwhelming thus far but at least 6 targets in every game shows Lamar Jackson is looking his way often and better days should be ahead, making him a solid buy low candidate.
