After another week of high-scoring action and huge performances, roles are starting to solidify and that means fantasy GMs need to adjust expectations. It’s only been three weeks but player outlooks have already shifted drastically. For example, Jacksonville’s undrafted rookie running back is averaging over 20 FPPG, the forgotten Cam Newton is at 23.82 and former Viking Stefon Diggs has totaled a surprising 20.27 in a “run heavy” offense. On the other hand, Texans star Deshaun Watson has faced three difficult matchups to accumulate 17.53 FPPG, 2019 second half breakout Kenyan Drake has struggled to 11.63 and Colts WR1 T.Y. Hilton is at an abysmal 7.77. Of course, all this can change in a single week and our job as GMs is to diligently process the new information to reevaluate players and improve our teams.
Top QBs Perform as Expected
With three weeks in the books, the familiar Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes lead the position in scoring. All are weekly lineup locks at this point and are nearing matchup-proof territory.
Make it consecutive weeks of at least 24 points for journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick who passed for 160 yards and 2 TDs while rushing for another on Thursday night. Fitz is a solid streamer when the matchup dictates. The other surprise performance has to be Jared Goff, who was a questionable pass interference call away from completing a 28-3 comeback against Buffalo’s solid defense. Goff passed for 321 yards and 3 total touchdowns on his way to 27.24 points and the fourth best QB performance this week.
Disappointing performances have to go to Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew and Deshaun Watson. After averaging over 26 FPPG through two weeks, Ryan posted only 11.42 in a game that featured yet another blown lead. Minshew was pegged as a top ten play but only mustered 9.2 points in a performance that featured 0 scores and 2 turnovers in a favorable matchup, proving he lacks the consistency of other signal callers. Watson’s 17.02 points is right near his average, which is outside the top 15 quarterbacks. The former Clemson star most likely cost you a high draft pick and I would stick with him given Houston’s first three games have come against some of the top competition in the AFC. If Watson’s GM in your league has become impatient, I wouldn’t hesitate to buy low.
Surprising Performers and Big Names atop the RB Leaderboard
The four running backs to best 30 points this week are Alvin Kamara, Rex Burkhead, Austin Ekeler and James Robinson, a testament to the randomness that is NFL football. Kamara has been the best player this year and doesn’t require additional praise. After totaling 12.1 points through the first two games, Burkhead broke out for 34.8 behind 98 total yards and all 3 of the Patriot’s offensive touchdowns on 13 touches. This is most likely an outlier performance due to a combination of James White’s absence, a 35% target share and the fact the Burkhead received the fourth most carries for the team on the day, but it’s clear that the former Bengal will be the hottest waiver add of the week. Similarly, Robinson continued his torrid start by turning 17 touches into 129 total yards and 2 TDs and was the only bright spot for the Jaguars. The undrafted rookie is currently on 88.2% of rosters and is looking like a weekly RB2. Completing the top four is Charger’s featured back Ekeler, who had a solid yet unspectacular first two weeks. Ekeler and teammate Keenan Allen combined for a massive 62.5% target share, which can’t be expected on a weekly basis, that the passing down specialist tuned into 11 receptions, 143 yards and a TD. The buy low window has officially closed.
Other notable performances include both first round picks and recent waiver darlings. Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb all finished among the positions top seven and solidified their RB1 status. Rounding out the top ten are Mike Davis, Jeff Wilson and Darrell Henderson, all of whom rewarded GMs who were fortunate enough to snag them off waivers as injury replacements. All come with their flaws, however I would rank Henderson highest moving forward as he’s most likely to remain in his current role, followed by Wilson and Davis.
Disappointing running back performances have to go to early picks Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs and David Johnson as well as popular add Dion Lewis. Mixon and Drake have been entirely ordinary this season, Mixon because defenses are keying in on him and Drake because Kyler Murray is vulturing touchdowns. Jacobs is in a similar situation to Mixon but already has a huge game under his belt back in week 1 while Johnson has been held to 50 total yards or less in consecutive weeks. All four players should be buy low options if you believe any will return to their peak forms. The Giants had a terrible game as a team against a formidable defense and popular addition Dion Lewis totaled only 2 points on 2 touches. Better games are ahead but this was far from expected in a seemingly favorable game script.
Mid-Round Receivers Step Up
With only one top five wide out in action thus far, multiple mid and late round guys stepped up with all of Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Michael Gallup, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Boyd and Robert Woods scoring at least 20 points. Most members of this group had started slow so this week’s performance is especially encouraging, namely Robinson and Gallup who had been averaging single digits before this week. I would heavily consider selling high on Lockett if possible as he’s averaging an unsustainable 24.63 FPPG after his 37-point explosion.
The second group of 20-point scorers includes multiple rookies and young players, headlined by Justin Jefferson’s 30.5 total behind 7 receptions for 175 yards and a TD. Most of the production came on a 71-yard bomb but 9 targets, nearly double the next most Viking, is an indication Kirk Cousins trusts the late first rounder. In addition to Jefferson, early selections Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins submitted big games. Aiyuk led SF in targets and received 3 carries, one of which went for a 19-yard TD, which shows Kyle Shannon is trying to get the rookie involved amid a rash of injuries. Higgins was second on Cincinnati with 9 targets which resulted in 5 catches for 40 yards and 2 scores, the most encouraging aspect of the line being the 21% target share. Higgins and Aiyuk are worth an add in deeper leagues while Jefferson has the ability to potentially contribute in 10-team formats.
The last noteworthy performances are those of Cedrick Wilson and Allen Lazard. Wilson became the second anonymous Cowboy in as many weeks to post a huge performance, 5 receptions for 107 yards and 2 TDs. This outburst was completely unexpected; however, it will be difficult for Wilson to keep it up as the fourth option at best on offense, even in one as good as Dallas’. Lazard is currently rostered in just over one third of ESPN leagues and that number stands to spike after 6 catches for 146 yards and a score. Operating as WR1 with Davante Adams out, Lazard was everything the Packers could’ve asked for and stands to remain heavily involved in the offense.
Odds and Ends
Contrary to last week, tight ends have had a quiet performance thus far with only Mo Alie-Cox standing out after consecutive quality weeks. Six of the eight highest scoring defenses faced bottom ten offense, proving that streaming is the best route if possible. In what was a big week for kickers twelve had double digit outputs, headlined by Stephen Gostkowski, who was 1/4 on field goals week 1, scoring 25. Choosing a kicker is as random as ever.
