Compared to last week’s lull, Sunday’s bevy of storylines, intense game action, and big plays in addition to this year’s first installment of Wednesday night football provided a boon to NFL fans and fantasy GMs alike. All this created a rewarding afternoon that truly fit into the giving spirit of the holidays.
Stinker Outings Overshadow Three Big Days
Many notable signal callers experienced pedestrian weeks with Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins being the exceptions. Watson started the week strong Thursday by recording a season high point total for the second straight week with 318 passing yards, 4 touchdowns and 33.1 points. The Clemson product is heating up at the right time although an unfavorable schedule forces GMs to temper expectations. Mahomes outdueled Tom Brady in completing 37/49 passes for 462 yards, 3 TDs and 31.3 points and is a no-brainer start as always. Despite a tumultuous season, Cousins has rebounded of late and 307 yards and three scores through the air in Sunday’s comeback win lead to a season-high 26.2 points and he’s a viable streaming option for next week’s match with Jacksonville.
Easily, the most disappointing performance of the week belongs to Derek Carr who was only able to manage 0.6 points on 215 passing yards and 4 turnovers against a Falcon’s team that entered the week allowing a league worst 25.8 FPPG to opposing QBs. He’s still an option in week 13 against the bottom feeding Jets but better options are out there. Both Kyler Murray and Cam Newton struggled in their matchup and scored a combined 11.9 points in what was a low scoring game. Bill Belichick’s game plan worked to perfection in limiting Murray to 201 total yards and 0 scores and could be mimicked by the capable Rams and Giants over the next two weeks but he remains a must start. Newton had been averaging nearly 20 FPPG over the past four weeks but failed to reach four with only 84 passing yards, 46 rushing yards and 2 interceptions. Other quarterbacks who underperformed include Jared Goff, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert. Goff was only started in 17% of ESPN leagues and managed a paltry 3 points including 3 turnovers. Allen and Herbert both scored at least eight points fewer than their season average but are weekly locks given their prior consistency.
Familiar Names atop the RB Leaderboard
Each of the top four running backs were started in more than 80% of ESPN leagues and have rewarded GMS with their consistency throughout the season. Antonio Gibson kicked things off Thursday with 25 touches, 136 yards, 3 rushing scores and 36.6 points. I’ve written about the rookie’s consistency in the past and it appears he has entered the low end RB1 tier. Surpassing Gibson’s total is Derrick Henry who rumbled for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns to reach 38.5 points which isn’t even his best performance of the year. It’s a bit concerning that Henry has as many games below 16 as he does over 20 but explosions like yesterday show why he’s one of the best options at the position. James Robinson blossoming into one of the most consistent backs in the league has been the story of the year and Sunday’s 26.9 points on 27 touches for 159 yards and a touchdown have become the standard. Nick Chubb now has over 100 yards in each of his three games since returning from injury and has regained his RB1 status with 144 rushing yards and a score summing to 26.6 points.
Sunday’s game script against hapless Denver allowed Latavius Murray to rack up 25.6 points on 124 yards and 2 TDs but he is still a matchup play as 43% of his production has come in two games. Austin Ekeler’s return from a six game absence featured 25 touches for 129 total yards and the passing down expert should be started with confidence moving forward. Wayne Gallman continues to produce for New York and he has now scored between 13 and 19 points in five straight weeks making him a quality RB2 play.
Similarly, a number of highly drafted backs had poor weeks, none more so than Ezekiel Elliott who managed only 2.9 points on Thursday. He received a season low 11 touches and shouldn’t be started next week against Baltimore, schedule withstanding. Melvin Gordon should have been in far less than 40% of ESPN lineups given Denver’s unique quarterback situation and his 12 rushes for 31 yards and 3.1 points proves that. Both J.D. McKissic and Alvin Kamara played second fiddle to their teammates and neither was able to meet 7 points, a development especially concerning for those who roster Kamara. Drew Brees can’t be back soon enough as Kamara was averaging 23.4 FPPG in nine games with the veteran under center compared to 8.4 in the two games Taysom Hill has called plays. Las Vegas’ offensive debacle included Josh Jacobs as 10 touches only equated 44 yards and 5.4 points but he should have a better week 13 against the Jets. Kareem Hunt failed to match double figures for the second straight week and third time in four weeks and has returned to the RB2 tier for as long as Nick Chubb is healthy.
Young Receivers Deliver
The common denominator among the week’s leading wide receivers is their youth. Tyreek Hill easily leads the way with an astounding 57.9 points on 13/269/3 and won many GMs their week with his performance alone. Following Hill is Will Fuller who kicked off Thanksgiving with 6 receptions for 171 yards, 2 scores and 35.1 points. The oft-injured Notre Dame product has become a true number one receiver with DeAndre Hopkin’s departure and is a solid WR2 in fantasy, but will be sitting out the final six games after testing positive for a banned substance.. The one exception is the veteran Jarvis Landry who’s been having a subpar year and only 23% of GMs benefited from his 28.3 points on 8 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. This nearly equaled his total of 30.7 from the last four games combined and Landry is a matchup based flex option.
The next group of three all scored between 24 and 26 points and are in their rookie or sophomore seasons. Justin Jefferson took advantage of Adam Thielen’s absence to record a season high 13 targets that produced a 7/70/2 line for 26 points. AJ Brown capitalized on two big play touchdowns in achieving 4 catches for 98 yards and 25.8 points. Deebo Samuel returned from a three game absence and saw an impressive 13 targets (38% share) which resulted in 11/133/0 for 24.3 points and is San Francisco’s one true reliable pass catcher. The trio are solid weekly WR2 plays.
On the negative side we have Tyler Boyd as the most disappointing receiver as he was started in 46% of ESPN leagues and managed just 3 catches, 15 yards and 4.5 points. Coming into the week, Boyd was WR13 on the season but yesterday proved that he’s merely a low-upside flex at best with Joe Burrow sidelined. Cooper Kupp’s sporadic season continued with 6.1 points on 2 catches for 41 yards as the Rams offense struggled as a whole but Kupp should remain in all lineups. Michael Thomas’ 9.1 points on 4/50/0 are right in line with his season average but easily more was expected heading into the season and at least one more mediocre week is ahead with Brees out next Sunday. Fellow top five wide out DeAndre Hopkins has scored below 11 in consecutive weeks and should be downgraded slightly moving forward due to stiff matchups in the coming weeks. Steffon Diggs produced only his second performance this season of under 14.9 points, with 10.9 on 7/39/0, and is still a weekly low end WR1. Of this group, Boyd and Kupp are the names whose value could decrease over the coming weeks.
