With 13 games in the books, seven teams put up at least 30 points while four failed to reach double figures, a development that becomes more typical as the season progresses and weather becomes a factor. As a result, Sunday’s fantasy output was on the low end meaning making correct lineup decisions is even more important. With that, let’s dissect the most impactful performances of the week.
The Worst Quarterback Week of the Year
Eleven QBs scored at least 20 but only three were able to surpass 23, and one of those guys was started as a TE in many formats. Coming off a season-low total of 14.1, Deshaun Watson scored 30.2 on 380 total yards and 3 total touchdowns to lead all signal callers in a difficult matchup against New England. Next week is a favorable game against Detroit but following that are tough matchups against Indianapolis twice and Chicago so you may want to look elsewhere for the fantasy playoffs. Likely offensive rookie of the year Justin Herbert continued his torrid start with 366 passing yards, 3 TDs and 27.7 points. The front-runner is now averaging 24.3 FPPG which puts him in a tie with Josh Allen for QB4 (5 if Dak Prescott is included). New Orleans’ Swiss army knife Taysom Hill was added in 78.8% of ESPN leagues this week where he was eligible at tight end and rewarded those who started him with 24.4 points on 233 passing yards, 51 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores. Hill should start for the next two weeks at least, both of which feature favorable matchups so keep him in lineups. However, ESPN may remove tight end eligibility.
No quarterback had a more disappointing week than Matt Ryan, who was started in 47.9% of ESPN leagues yet scored only 5.3 points. The Saints defense has been resurgent in recent weeks but more than 232 yards and 0 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions was expected with elite corner Marshon Lattimore sidelined. Matthew Stafford joined Ryan in failing to reach double digits as Detroit was shut out by Carolina. The longtime Lion now has scored fewer than 10 in two of three weeks and shouldn’t be in lineups. Lamar Jackson has been solid this season but far from what GMs expected when they used an early round selection to draft him. Sunday’s 16.5 points on 186 passing yards, 53 rushing yards and 1 score was his sixth game of 10 scoring fewer than 20.
No Running Backs Explode
Surprisingly enough, only three running backs have reached 20 points and the leader is Dalvin Cook with 25. Following Cook are lineup locks Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott, who returned to form after a four game funk averaging 8.8 FPPG. Elliott rushed for 102 yards, his first time eclipsing 100 this season, and hauled in a receiving TD for 19.2 points and revived a dormant Dallas offense that put up 31 points after averaging 10.25 PPG following Dak Prescott’s injury.
Rookies Antonio Gibson and J.K. Dobbins have emerged as above average options in recent weeks. Gibson has received increasingly more touches as the season progresses and rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries for 17.4 points. He has scored 5 touchdowns over the last four games and is averaging 17.8 FPPG in that span. Dobbins may have become the lead ball carrier in Baltimore’s running back by committee approach as he had 15 carries for 70 yards, a TD and 18.5 points compared to 5 carries for 8 yards combined by Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram. A changing of the guard may be in store sooner than expected.
A number of typically solid backs had disappointing days, including Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders and Kareem Hunt. Kamara’s 10.5 points can be classified as a disappointment for his lofty standards, especially because he failed to record any receiving work on a single target. If Taysom Hill starting means limited receptions, expectations need to be tempered for as long as Drew Brees is injured. Sanders had his lowest output of the year with 19 touches, 81 yards, and 9.1 points. The efficiency is there as he’s averaging 5.7 YPC on the season but Carson Wentz’ regression and vulturing tendencies have led to only three touchdowns in seven games played. Running lanes and more production are ahead if Philadelphia’s pass catchers ever get healthy. A late rushing score bailed out those who started Hunt as his day featured 14 touches, 21 total yards and 9.1 points. Hunt is averaging 12.3 FPPG over the last five games compared to 17.6 in the first five.
Todd Gurley had his worst game of the year with 3.9 points on only eight carries due to Atlanta playing catch up most of the day and is a touchdown dependent option, although his scoring odds are higher than most. Duke Johnson has been in a featured role the past three weeks with David Johnson injured and, after a promising first performance of 15.3 points, he has just 5.4 and 6.5 in the past two weeks. Next week against Detroit looks promising on paper but he should be faded following that game. Nyheim Hines has now alternated 20 point and single digit performances over the past four weeks as Jonathan Taylor received 22 carries compared to 6 for Hines and 4 for Jordan Wilkins. After three consecutive weeks scoring in double digits, Giovani Bernard scored fewer than 10 for the second straight week and should be viewed as a fringe flex option at best with Joe Burrow going down.
Reliable Receivers Lead the Way
Four of the top five receivers on the week are known for their consistent production year in and year out which makes them some of the best options at the position. Clocking in at a leading 34.5 is Keenan Allen, whose 16/145/1 line came on a whopping 19 targets. Removing week 1 when Justin Herbert wasn’t his quarterback, Allen is averaging 21 FPPG which is second behind Davante Adams. Adam Thielen’s 123 receiving yards were more than his total from the last three games combined and eight catches including two touchdowns brought his total to 32.3 on the day. Kirk Cousin’s favorite target is back on track. Tyreek Hill’s 27 points on 11/102/1 makes three straight weeks scoring at least 25 and he remains one of the steadiest performers while being a premier deep threat. Speaking of Adams, his 23.6 points on 7/106/1 actually lowered his FPPG average but that doesn’t change his hold on the top receiver in fantasy.
Joining the above quartet are Damiere Byrd and Diontae Johnson. Byrd’s 26.3 points on 6 receptions, 132 yards and a score make him waiver darling of the week and he does have at least seven targets in four games but the consistency isn’t there to make him a viable option next week. Sunday proved Johnson is Pittsburgh’s number one receiver with 16 targets, his sixth game with double digit looks, 12 receptions, 111 yards and 23.1 points. He should be viewed as a high end WR2 moving forward.
Travis Fulgham has now recorded 1.8 points in consecutive weeks and can’t be started until Carson Wentz proves capable. After averaging 19.8 FPPG with Sam Darnold at QB, Jamison Crowder is only at 6.6 with Joe Flacco filling in and isn’t a reliable option with the veteran throwing passes. Juju Smith-Schuster’s 5.9 points was easily third among Pittsburgh’s receivers and with Johnson seeing more looks and Chase Claypool being the red zone target he’s relegated to the third best fantasy option on the team. Marvin Jones’ streak of four straight games scoring at least 13 was snapped with the 4/51/0 he put up Sunday but he should remain in lineups as long as Kenny Golladay is injured. Studs Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins both failed to reach 11 points despite a favorable matchup and game script but should be started with confidence every week.
