For those looking to invest in high-dollar skill players in expected shootouts this week — Vegas has Dallas/Atlanta, New Orleans/Buffalo, Steelers/Colts and Texans/Rams atop its over/under lines — here are some value DFS plays that can make up for a roster splurge or two.
Quarterbacks:
Andy Dalton ($5300) was shut down by the league’s top defense last week, but he threw for multiple touchdowns in four out of five weeks prior (passing TD totals since Sept. 24: 2, 4, 1, 2, 2,0). A shoddy Bengals offensive line is hurting the run game even more than the pass — they have only two rushing touchdowns on the season — and the Titans defense is tied for fourth in the league giving up only 3.6 yards per carry. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4900) gets the start in Tampa Bay this week facing a Jets defense giving up the ninth most points to opposing quarterbacks. Tampa’s horrible defense should lead to a high-scoring game, and Beardo can still wing it.
Running backs:
The Patriots might not even try to run the ball against Denver’s stout D-line, and both of their pass catching backs should benefit. Look for Tom Brady to lean on James White ($4200) and Dion Lewis ($3900) through the air against a defense that has given up just as many TD receptions (3) as rushes for scores on the year. … Since inheriting the starting job for the Giants, Orleans Darkwa ($4500) has been more than serviceable, averaging 5.4 yards per carry in his last four games including popping off for 117 yards on 21 totes against Denver in Week 7. The G-Men are facing a 49ers defense giving up the most points to opposing running backs by more than four points.
If you don’t like Fitzy as a sneaky QB play, perhaps the Doug Martin ($4700) volume play is in order. Prior to last week’s clunker at New Orleans, the muscle hamster had averaged 18 touches a game over his last three. He hasn’t been a TD machine, but this is a rare multi-purpose back with a role in both blowouts and shootouts — he should have ample opportunity against a Jets defense ranked in the league’s bottom 10 in yards per carry.
Wide Receivers:
It might sound ridiculous after the week the Giants are having, but my favorite play this week and every week until he blows up is Sterling Shepard ($5500). The 2016 second-rounder caught eight touchdowns as a rookie last year — he was seeing red zone plays even before Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall hit IR. With a real bad defense on the other side, Shepard and Evan Engram are looking at a ton of targets going forward. Robby Anderson ($5200) has scored in three straight games. He’s up against a Buccaneers defense giving up a league-worst 7.4 yard average. The Dallas/Atlanta tilt has the highest over-under of Week 10 — Mohamed Sanu ($5100) is a cheap way to get involved while Julio Jones is banged up. The Cowboys are giving up the sixth-most points to opposing wideouts on the year.
Tight ends:
Kyle Rudolph ($4600) is a decent price going against a Washington squad giving up the fourth-most points to tight ends. At least the targets have been steady at 7, 7, 9, 9 over his last four. Tyler Kroft ($3600) is the better deal — the 2015 third-round pick has been solid if not spectacular in Tyler Eifert’s stead, hauling in three TDs in six weeks, including two against the Browns in Week 5.
Defense:
Chicago ($3000) is an underrated defensive unit playing at home against a quarterback in Brett Hundley who has thrown just one TD pass against four interceptions in three starts since Aaron Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone. The Bears are the third-ranked unit in fantasy over the past four weeks.
Follow Danny at @_dannycross_.
