Walton’s NL Tout Wars Draft Recap – Extra Time for Injuries to Heal?

As many readers may know, the Tout Wars board decided this Tuesday to move our annual in-person drafts scheduled this past weekend in New York City to online only. We deemed this the appropriate path to take given the spread of the coronavirus, and based on the evolving situation over the remainder of the week, scrapping the highly anticipated annual in-person get-together would have become necessary, anyway.

As a result, our four remaining auction drafts were moved to Fantrax’s system. While I have participated in countless auction drafts over the years, this was my first not either being on the phone or face-to-face. I missed the interaction and many of the nuances of auction drafting done in person.

Todd Zola did a tremendous job ensuring all of the 50 other owners had a chance to test the Fantrax system and get any questions answered up front. As a result, our Sunday morning National League-only draft — third of four on the weekend docket — went off very smoothly.

I have always been a “paper drafter” and felt that I was not at a disadvantage whatsoever in this format. I had only one screen to watch — and listen to, as a robot auctioneer called out the familiar, “Going once, going twice, and sold cadence” with machine-like precision.

The user interface at Fantrax was easy to use and understand.

The only gotcha I experienced was the use of the “Increase bid by $1” button. When multiple owners were doing this simultaneously, an individual bid could be increased by several dollars. Such was the case when I unknowingly went to $28 on Paul Goldschmidt when I thought I was bidding $25. (It was not the end of the world, as that was my peak value for the Cardinals first baseman, but it precluded me from bargain shopping for a potentially more cost-effective alternative.) I was more careful from then on, but it still happened a few times.

My team

I sensed a unique opportunity this year. I looked for value in players who were not seriously injured in spring camp, but were delayed in their 2020 preparation. My guess is the coronavirus-caused stoppage will be significantly longer than the outrageously optimistic April 9 hopes stated by MLB. The extended delay will give these mildly hobbled players enough time to get back into action when play resumes, goes my theory.

To break any ties or near-ties, I wanted players on good teams. For the vast majority of my players selected, I was successful. (Specifically, 10 of my 23 front-line players hail from the three NL division-winners in 2019 – the Dodgers (4), Cardinals (3) and Braves (3). I spent $149, or 57.3 percent of my budget, on the 10. )

My league mates know I follow the Cardinals especially closely, so often incorrectly assume I prefer St. Louis players. The reality is that the Cardinals (like the Dodgers and others) field consistently good teams – and that matters to me when selecting my core players at the draft table.

Further, if we come into an auction expecting to get certain players, we will either overpay or be disappointed. To that end, the two Cardinals hitters I most preferred were Kolten Wong (emerging leadoff hitter) and Paul DeJong (new clean-up hitter), but the flow of the draft and market prices led to them joining other rosters. So be it. I feel I assembled a strong team without the pair of Redbirds.

When all was said and done, I ended up right on the standard $180-$80 hitter-pitcher split. Even with Tout having abolished the innings-pitched minimums for 2020, I did not notice any owners punting starters/wins.

As the most I spent on any player was $30, I was slower than many owners to get started buying, but quickly made up the ground — not unusual territory for me.

As is often the case, I maneuvered myself into the end game such that I did not have to pick through the scraps for a number of $1 players, nor did I artificially overspend to deplete otherwise unused money. I was one of the first three or four owners to complete their rosters — and I was good with that.

Catchers

Carson Kelly $12

Tucker Barnhart $5

I added both backstops for one dollar under my projected values. Kelly had a nice Arizona debut in 2019 and I believe the 25-year-old possesses incremental upside. Barnhart has a clear job and hopefully his boat can rise with the rest of the Reds’ revamped offense.

Corner infielders

Paul Goldschmidt $28

Justin Turner $25

Alec Bohm $2

I bowed out on Anthony Rizzo when the price would have gone to $32. Pete Alonso would have taken at least $30 to buy. Though he was nominated after Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins could not have been had for under $28, either. With Josh Bell coming in later at $27, it seems clear I paid full price — but did not overpay. If Goldy was still in his 20s in age, stealing bases, it would have been another story.

In hindsight, I wished I had gone another dollar on Eugenio Suarez instead of letting the bidding stop at $27. At $25, Turner was a safe selection at third, but lacks the positional flexibility of later hot-corner picks Jeff McNeil ($24) and Eduardo Escobar ($23).

Bohm, the No. 2 Phillies prospect, may not open the season in the majors, but I am willing to use one of my four reserve roster spots until he comes up. Last season, such a boost from Fernando Tatis Jr. was a difference-maker for my team.

I later nabbed Garrett Cooper for $4, with a plan to shift the Marlin from outfield to corner to cover for Bohm.

Middle infield

Jurickson Profar $10

Corey Seager $21

Luis Urias $4

I planned to spend more on my shortstop than my second sacker. As they came off the board, my preferred shortstop list was down to Corey Seager and Paul DeJong. The former was thrown first, so I went to my top value to secure him. I don’t know if Lenny Melnick would have kept bidding, but if possible, I would have gone to the same price, $21, to get DeJong instead.

Budgeting $10-$12 for second base, I stayed on target with a steady player in Profar, albeit another what-you-see-is-what-you-get selection.

In the end game, a number of solid infielders remained, but the vast majority of the 12 teams had not filled their middle infield spot. I was among them. I decided not to go to $5 on Isan Diaz and was rewarded when Luis Urias landed on my team at just $4. Shortly before camp ended, the new Brewer was cleared to hit after suffering a fractured hamate shortly after his trade from San Diego. The extra time off can only help make this purchase return more value.

Outfield

Tommy Pham $30

Lorenzo Cain $17

Nick Senzel $12

Garrett Cooper $4

Two of my flychasers were slowed in camp by injury/recovery, but, again, the disruption in play should help multi-category standouts Tommy Pham and Nick Senzel to get back to 100 percent. Though playing time in the Queen City outfield for Senzel is unclear, I have been watching Aristedes Aquino’s struggles this spring closely.

With this pair along with Lorenzo Cain, it should be clear that I am counting on my outfield to deliver the majority of my stolen bases this season.

Utility/Swing

Sam Hilliard $5

Franchy Cordero $3

Tout Wars is unique that instead of a standard fifth outfielder, we use a swing position that can be any hitter or any pitcher in a given week. Most often these swing players are hitters, which is what I did in acquiring Sam Hilliard. The Rockies outfield playing time is not clear, but I am counting on his talent (and injuries to others among a group that can never seem to stay healthy) to open the door.

I filled my standard utility spot with Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, who like Hilliard was having a strong spring before play was halted. Cordero seems to be the Friars’ top outfield reserve. Knowing I would be moving Cooper from the outfield to corner for Bohm led me to take the two outfielders here, while spending just $8 in total.

Starting pitchers

Jack Flaherty $27

Max Fried $15

Julio Urias $13

Dustin May $4

Dakota Hudson $4

Cole Hamels $3

I came into the draft resigned that I would be unable to get Flaherty under $30. I was delighted when I secured the National League’s best pitcher in the second half of 2019 for just $27. My other comparable target, Stephen Strasburg, later came off the board at a bargain $23, though there is no assurance I could have taken him for a dollar more.

Max Fried is definitely a post-hype pitcher, but with decent strikeouts and improving command (at least until this spring), having the Braves starter on my roster is very welcome.

Getting Julio Urias at just $13 was surprising, but delightful. I think the Dodgers lefty could have a breakout year in 2020 like Flaherty did in 2019. The talent is clearly there.

I know the crowded LA depth chart is not kind to Dustin May right now, but I believe the elite prospect will also make his way into the rotation before too long. May was yet another player slowed in spring (side injury) who should go on to be a difference-maker in 2020.

Dakota Hudson gets little respect because of his elevated 2019 peripherals and low strikeout rate. While Hudson led the league in free passes issued in 2019, he was also first in ground ball rate and has a strong defense behind him in St. Louis. The right-hander’s K rate was up in camp this spring.

Veteran Cole Hamels is yet another injury case who should benefit from the work stoppage. What’s not to like about getting the right-hander for just $3? No need for $1 gambles with Hamels as my no. 6 SP.

Relief

Will Smith $9

Tony Watson $5

Shaun Anderson $1

So I am not going to lead the league in saves. Work can and will be done here during the season.

Let the record show that Mark Melancon went for $8, and, further, that I did not bid. The Braves’ incumbent closer has lost that role twice in the last year with two different teams. So what are the odds it will not happen again? I am fine with no handcuff and with Will Smith for $9.

OK, about that plan to roster players on good teams… I sort of have a Giants closer handcuff — if you believe Shaun Anderson could be next in line for saves. I know this is a broken record, but Tony Watson was yet another of my acquisitions slowed by injury this spring.

Reserves

Jordan Hicks

Jose Urena

Jaylin Davis

Austin Slater

In Tout, we are challenged with just four reserve spots, although the injured list is unlimited in size. For that reason, even if play resumes before all my mild injury risks are ready, I can grab replacements off the waiver wire.

My two immediately-ready backfills begin with Marlins starter Jose Urena, who was having a good spring. He will take Hamels’ spot if the veteran is not ready to roll, or would probably put Anderson on the pines for now.

The Giants’ Austin Slater can fill in the corners and outfield and is yet another who looked very good in camp. His outfield teammate Jaylin Davis, who came up at the end of 2019, may be a stash for later.

I really wanted a multi-positional utility player to fill gaps including middle infield, with Brad Miller the only remaining viable target on my sheet, but the Cardinal was gone by the time my second pick came around.

That initial selection was Jordan Hicks, a player who I feel owes me. Last year, I drafted then-Milwaukee closer Corey Knebel, only for him to suffer a season-ending injury a few days later. About a month into the season, I approached Steve Gardner of USATODAY, who seemed stronger in relief than with starters. I offered Hyun-Jin Ryu — before the then-Dodgers starter went on a tear, and we quickly closed the one-for-one deal, with Hicks joining my squad.

In Hicks’ first month on my roster, the Cardinals went into a deep slump and I think he gave me just three saves in total before tearing his UCL. I led Tout for most of the first five months before falling to second-place at the end, with relief a major missed opportunity.  

The 105-mph closer Mr. Hicks is on target for a mid-July return — and if he can bounce back, it will be on my roster. In the meantime, I can shift him to the injured list and use the reserve spot on another.

So there you have it. I feel like my 2020 National League Tout Wars roster has a good balance of veteran-ness and youthful upside. While some injury risk was taken, I feel it was prudent.

As much as I could, not being in the room with my friends and league competitors, I tried to enjoy the draft, with the realization that our fantasy world will basically be on hold as well.

Let us all hope that conditions around us improve and life can get back to normal soon.

And, of course, Tout weekend will never be the same without our late compatriots Lawr Michaels and Steve Moyer. They were joined in passing this past year by three-time NL Tout champion Mike Lombardo, who was very helpful to me when I was a Tout newbie going on two decades ago.

(Full National League Tout Wars auction draft results can be viewed here.)

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most single-season points in the league’s two decades-plus of history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.