During the preseason, we investigated the hidden value of BB% (walk rate) and K% (strike out rate) in points leagues and how batters who draw nearly as many walks as strike outs or hurlers who minimize free passes while sitting hitters down regularly are often hidden gems. Now that most teams have played 30 games, enough for a valid sample, we’ll revisit the topic using 2020 statistics this time. Hitters and pitchers who excel at the metric BB% – K% will be featured below, opening with hitters.
Hitters
There are 318 players with 50 plate appearances and 14 are drawing as many walks as strikeouts: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy La Stella, Carlos Santana, Brad Miller, Yandy Diaz, Will Smith, Anthony Rendon, Joey Votto, Bryce Harper, Jordan Luplow, Nolan Arenado, Juan Soto, Hunter Dozier and Sandy Leon. There are a few surprise names in this bunch along with five superstars and some who aren’t fantasy relevant. This 2020 group is much larger than the 2019 crop that only included four players, and with time the number will shrink, but regardless these 14 players have taken strides toward steady fantasy performance and make for savvy trade targets. Below you’ll find more players with an enticing walk and strike out rate differential along with their %ROST mark in ESPN leagues.
Robbie Grossman OF, Oak | -1.8%, 41.3%
Grossman has always displayed excellent plate discipline but has never had a higher BB% and K% differential than this season’s near zero mark. Finally receiving regular playing time and available in more than half of leagues, the veteran outfielder is a smart add once Oakland returns to play following a positive COVID test.
Alec Bohm 3B, Phi | -1.8%, 28.1%
Bohm should already be on fantasy GMs radar due to his top prospect billing and his sterling BB% and K% differential is all the more encouraging. Currently averaging a decent 2.1 fantasy points per game, expect better performance ahead due to an expected .290/.519/.385 expected batting average, slugging and weighted on base average compared to an actual .265/.388/.326 line. If you have a roster spot Bohm is a worthy addition.
Brandon Nimmo OF, NYM | -2.3%, 44.6%
The centerfielder has always been able to draw walks, career 15.4%, but the key development this season is an 18.8 K% down from a 26% career mark. Odds are this will climb as the season progresses although Nimmo should still produce at a rate that makes him roster worthy in many leagues. I featured Nimmo as a player to add two weeks ago and in that time his %ROST rate has increased from 35.9% but still should be higher.
Ian Happ OF, CHC | -4.7%, 60.3%
Happ has made huge, unprecedented strides this season in both K% and BB% that his lead to his current ranking as the sixth best outfielder. A career 31.3 K% that’s 36th worst all time (and that includes some pitchers) has been reduced to 21.9% and Happ’s BB% has also risen to 17.2%. Although these marks are likely due for regression, it’s clear the outfielder has made adjustments that will keep him fantasy relevant.
Nick Solak 2B/OF, Tex | -7.2%, 28.1%
Solak has put together a solid rookie season that includes an underrated BB% – K% that ranks in the 78th percentile. The rookie’s rates this season are in line with his minor league performance and his 16.7 K% is a career best outside of low A ball. His current ranking as the twelfth second baseman is ahead of bigger names like Jose Altuve and Keston Hiura and dual positional eligibility only enhances his profile.
Pitchers
As with hitters, BB% is often overlooked when evaluating pitchers from a fantasy perspective. A low BB% minimizes traffic on the bases and, more subtly, allows pitchers to work deeper into games by reducing the number of pitches thrown, a skill with increased relevance in 2020. With most pitchers on a shorter leash than ever this season, the ability to pitch at least five innings and earn a win means more and pitchers who walk few are more likely to do so. Pairing K% with BB% highlights pitchers who earn extra points by whiffing batters in addition to avoiding losing points by walking them. Walks are the Yin to strike outs’ Yang, and pitchers with the largest differential are in near perfect harmony. To put things in perspective, the league average K% – BB% for pitchers is 15.13% with an 8.72% standard deviation and this value is listed first followed by the roster percentage.
Freddy Peralta RP, Mil | 33.8%, 12.5%
Peralta has featured electric stuff since his 2018 debut but has struggled with harnessing that potential. A move to the bullpen in a swingman role seems to have done the trick as Peralta’s career high K% and career low BB% have helped him to the tenth best differential among the 360 pitchers with at least ten innings pitched this season. The righty’s troubling 4.08 ERA is offset by a 1.72 FIP and 2.42 xFIP, indicating he has pitched better than his ERA suggests. If Peralta were to move into the rotation, he would at least be worth a speculative add in all but the shallowest leagues.
Elieser Hernandez SP, Mia | 28.9%, 43.3%
Hernandez has been a popular streamer all season but may have graduated from that fantasy role due to his recent performance. Despite averaging less than five innings pitched per start, he has at least five strike outs in all five appearances and no more than one walk in each. Hernandez K% – BB% is twentieth in the league and both his K% and BB% are sixteenth among starters, and a 3.04 ERA isn’t far from a 3.94 FIP and 3.50 xFIP. Hernandez’ start Wednesday against Toronto will be telling for his rest of season potential.
Josh Staumont RP, KC | 27.9%, 12.8%
Staumont should already have fantasy GMs attention due to the simple fact he can reach triple digits on the radar gun, but in addition he may now be the favorite close games after Trevor Rosenthal was dealt to San Diego. Already a top 50 relief pitcher thanks to a sparkling 0.66 ERA, Staumont also features a top 30 K% and BB% differential. The righty is a must add if manager Mike Matheny gives him first crack at closing duties.
Kevin Gausman SP, SF | 26.3%, 29.9%
Gausman appears to have finally tapped into the potential he always showed in Baltimore as his differential this season is a 75% increase of his career mark. Better performances should be ahead as his ERA sits at 4.54 despite a 3.31 FIP and 2.93 xFIP.
Lucas Sims RP, Cin | 24.5%, 2%
Similar to Staumont, Sims has impressed so far with a 0.69 ERA in a set-up role and is currently among the top 20 relievers. Manager David Bell already indicated that Sims will be used in high leverage situations, which could mean save opportunities are in his future. Keep Sims on your radar and pounce if he’s able to usurp Raisel Iglesias as the closer.
