There are three main ways for a trip to the dish to end without a ball being put in play: a walk (BB), strikeout (K) or hit by pitch (HBP). For fantasy purposes HBP can be ignored, however walks and strikeouts are integral in points leagues. They are often overlooked in favor of more eye catching stats like home runs, RBI and stolen bases. As a result, players who draw a lot of walks and minimize whiffs are available at a discount on draft day.
The importance of walks to winning was popularized by Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, a book later turned into a popular movie. Moneyball shows how the early 2000s Oakland Athletics exploited a market deficiency as pertains to on base specialists. However, fantasy manager in points leagues have been late to the party. A walk is worth the same as a single and can lead to runs and stolen bases.
Another crucial stat is strikeouts as they often subtract a full point from a batter’s total and players who consistently whiff siphon precious points. For example, last season Eugenio Suarez had a league-leading 189 punch outs which cost him nearly 200 points whereas Michael Brantley only fanned 66 times – nearly 3 times fewer. A plate appearance ending in a BB versus a K is a two-point swing. Not to mention, after walking, players can steal bases and score runs.
In today’s exercise, we will be looking at BB% and K% to distinguish which hitters add the most value by taking pitches. As with previous columns, we will be calculating the difference between the two rates to decipher which players optimize the stats. Many top players excel, but we will focus on the lesser names who are being underrated. With that, let’s get to it.
The Elite
Last season, only four players had a non-negative BB% -K% (minimum 200 PAs): Alex Bregman, Luis Arraez, Carlos Santana and … Kendrys Morales. This quartet demonstrates the skill range of the players who are the best at taking pitches. Among the group is a superstar, a second-year player with exceptional contact, a constantly underrated veteran and a player who performed so poorly in 2019 that he retired. This proves BB% – K% is not a catchall metric but can highlight players on the rise when used correctly. Batters eye is a skill that tends to display less variance season to season while other fantasy relevant stats are subject to high variance. Drafting based on these rates will ensure selection of low risk players with high floors.
Above Average
All players below have BB% – K% above the 75th percentile (K% between two and nine points greater than BB%) and have an ADP lower than their projected finish in points leagues.
Marcus Semien SS, Oak
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 11.6 | 13.7 | 38 | 17 |
Semien had a huge breakout in 2019 that resulted in a third place finish in AL MVP voting and his BB% – K% has improved steadily every season, culminating in last season’s top 15 mark. While some regression is likely, Semien is a lock for a top 30 finish.
Michael Brantley OF, Hou
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 8 | 10.4 | 66 | 48 |
Another player who is consistently underrated, Brantley finished last season as hitter 25, yet is being drafted as hitter 41 currently. Odds are Brantley finishes closer to last season’s numbers than his current ADP.
Jorge Polanco SS, Min
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 8.5 | 16.5 | 98 | 70 |
Like Semien, Polanco is an AL shortstop who broke out in 2019. His BB and K rates have remained consistent over the past few seasons which indicates his eye is here to stay; it’s just a matter of the power numbers sticking.
Jean Segura SS, Phi
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 6.9 | 13 | 144 | 115 |
Segura had a subpar 2019 by his recent standards yet still finished as hitter 103 on a points per game basis. He’s also likely to add new positional eligibility at 3B, even slightly better play would more than justify a higher ADP considering Segura’s role on a stronger Phillies team.
Joey Votto 1B, Cin
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 12.5 | 20.2 | 184 | 129 |
Votto had an extremely disappointing 2019 during which he finished as hitter 160 based on points per game. Reason for optimism exists as Votto’s career BB and K rates of 16% and 17.8% are far from last season’s marks. Essentially, it comes down to whether you believe 2019 was a down year or the new norm and, considering 2017 and 2018 high finishes, I surmise Votto still has something left in the tank.
Tommy La Stella, 2B/3B
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 6.2 | 8.7 | 190 | 138 |
Finally given regular playing time, La Stella was a true feel-good story in 2019 until a broken leg ended his season prematurely. Many will say it was a fluke performance, however La Stella’s BB% and K% differential of 2.5 is exactly his career mark and a triple slash of .295/.346/.486 is not far off a career .272/.345/.397. Even if the power regresses, last season’s hitter 47 on a points per game basis should easily outperform his ADP and is worthy of a selection around pick 150.
Daniel Murphy 1B, Col
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 4.9 | 11.8 | 236 | 149 |
Prior to 2019, Murphy had been a solid early round selection thanks in part to his high BB% and low K%, the differential of which was a career low last season. It appears Murphy has begun his decline, but he can still be a valuable asset as more than a late round flyer. With the potential to DH, Murphy is worth much more than his ADP indicates.
Room to Grow
The hitters below have a BB% and K% in the bottom 25th percentile (K% between 18 and 36 points greater than BB%) and are being over drafted based on ADP and projected finish. Many of the candidates were mentioned in my previous article about BABIP so those players were not included.
Javier Baez SS, CHC
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 5 | 27.8 | 92 | 130 |
After placing second in the 2018 NL MVP voting, Baez ended last season as hitter 92 based on fantasy points per game. Coincidentally, that’s where he is currently being drafted but that fails to account for pitchers. Based on name value, someone will take Baez too soon. Don’t let it be you.
Eloy Jimenez OF, CHW
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 6 | 26.6 | 86 | 118 |
An uber-hyped prospect, Jimenez turned in a decent 2019 with a finish as hitter 116 based on points per game. While some improvement is to be expected due to pure power potential, the BB and K rates are uninspiring and suggest Jimenez is best left on the board until after pick 100.
Gary Sanchez C, NYY
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 9 | 28 | 145 | 162 |
Another batter with top of the line power, Sanchez is bound to be over drafted because of his position behind the plate. Last season’s BB% and K% differential was the worst of Sanchez career so positive regression is likely, but injuries and days off is a factor that can’t be ignored. After missing time every season of his career, the Yankees will want to keep Sanchez healthy for the playoffs which should mean even more days off during the 60-game season.
Shohei Ohtani DH/SP, LAA
| BB% | K% | ADP | Ranking |
| 7.8 | 25.9 | 68 | 144 |
Ohtani is one of the most intriguing players in the lengthy history of baseball and fantasy owners are eager to roster his unique skill set. The problem is those who roster him are clearly reaching for his talents. Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in the game, but in a shortened season where he is likely to get numerous days off and given he hasn’t pitched in nearly two calendar years makes a selection at 68 a reach.
