Starting pitchers are getting the hook quicker than ever these days as teams invest more heavily in bullpens, while managers increasingly use specialists and high-strikeout relievers early in games.
Last year’s AL and NL innings pitched leaders, Chris Sale (214.1) and Jeff Samardzija (207.2), represent a marked departure from the top-end output we’ve seen over the past five years. It’s not an aberration — bullpen usage has been ticking upward in recent years, and this winter’s hot stove league demonstrated that organizations value late-inning relief more than ever.
What to do with this information? Conventional thinking suggests that those who reliably throw 200 quality innings are worth more now. Supply and demand. Trickle-down economics.
We’ve already seen evidence in early industry mocks that starters are being highly valued. Lawr noted here that Max Scherzer and Cory Kluber were selected at the first-round turn in the 14-team FSTA draft, which concludes this weekend in L.A. at the annual conference.
But I’m having trouble seeing recent trends — uptick in offense/power, increasing bullpen usage — as changing my perspective on SP value much. In fact, if the best starters in the game aren’t throwing 230-250 innings per year, one could argue they’re even less valuable than they were when they accounted for a higher percentage of your innings.
So what’s changed and what hasn’t?
First, let’s remember the age-old caveats of drafting pitchers early — pitcher performance is more volatile year-to-year than that of hitters, and people who violently whip a ball off a mound get hurt more often than the guys swinging the sticks. Plus, free agent hurlers are easier to find during the season, and upside plays abound in the late rounds of the draft. I’m willing to do the dirty work to build a staff.
Second, I’ll pause to acknowledge that drafting Clayton Kershaw in the back half of the first round is never a bad idea. The game’s elite starters — top five or so — are still so much more reliable and dominant than tier 1a that they are welcome on any team. Grab one in the second or third, then go offense crazy. Fine with me.
But, outside of the elite guys, players in the next couple tiers share some combination of inexperience, injury history or other sort of wart — WHIP issues, bad team context, etc. They’re a necessary part of your draft at some point, but they come with the age-old “pitcher risk.” Zack Greinke just burned owners two years ago, and he’s probably a third-round pick this year. Do you trust Justin Verlander to repeat last year’s numbers at age 35? Or, Yu Darvish to hold up over the entire season?
An early-round starting pitcher run is actually a good thing for those prepared to go the opposite route. Say every other manager in a 12-team league grabs two starters in the first five rounds (even though ESPN’s “very early” rankings list its No. 22 starter, Aaron Nola, at 90 overall — an eighth round pick). First, your top five offensive picks are going to go well, giving you the depth to overcome a major position player injury or unexpectedly poor start to the season. Plus, your league mates will then break from pitching, and starters 23-40 will slowly leave the queue into the double-digit rounds.
Let’s take a look at some starters ESPN lists among players ranked 109-132 overall — the equivalent of 10th and 11th round selections: Masahiro Tanaka (111), Jon Lester (113), Dallas Keuchel (119), Sonny Gray (124) and Johnny Cueto (130). Plus Danny Duffy (112), Jimmy Nelson (115) and Lance McCullers (123). I’m fine with the first group as my number two starter, the second group as my third. And we haven’t even gotten into the late-round picks we’ll like as we get closer to draft season.
An important note for those waiting on starters: Once you get to round 7 or 8, it’s time to start acting. Don’t wait for round 11 just to get a “deal” on Keuchel if he’s your first or second SP. You already got your deals — stock up on SPs while others are drafting flawed position players and closers.
Again, none of this is to say you shouldn’t grab a reliable, high-strikeout, low WHIP guy early in the draft. In fact, do it — but only one. If you stock up on bats early, I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised who’s waiting for you as the draft progresses.
BTW, I’ll write a separate piece in this space closer to March getting into individual SP endorsements and values.
Follow me @_dannycross_.
