Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen are going off the board as the first relief pitchers drafted in most leagues. In the NFBC 15 team leagues, Diaz’s ADP current sits at 50, making him, on average, an early fourth-round pick. He as gone as early as the first pick in the third round.
Treinen’s ADP currently sits at 65, making him, on average, an early-fifth rounder. He’s gone as early as 52nd overall. Clearly, drafters are banking on Diaz and Treinen to repeat their spectacular 2018 seasons. And why not?
Well, if history is indicative, not only will Treinen not be the best relief pitcher for fantasy purposes in the league, but he’s unlikely to finish in the top five. Here’s an historic look (compliments of FanGraphs) of the top five earning relievers over the past six years:
2013 Top Relievers 2014 Top Relievers 2015 Top Relievers
- Craig Kimbrel 1. Dellin Betances 1. Wade Davis
- Koji Uehara 2. Greg Holland 2. Mark Melancon
- Greg Holland 3. Wade Davis 3. Jeurys Familia
- Joe Nathan 4. Craig Kimbrel 4. Andrew Miller
- Kenley Jansen 5. Zach Britton 5. Dellin Betances
2016 Top Relievers 2017 Top Relievers 2018 Top Relievers
- Kenley Jansen 1. Craig Kimbrel 1. Blake Treinen
- Andrew Miller 2. Kenley Jansen 2. Edwin Diaz
- Zach Britton 3. David Robertson 3. Craig Kimbrel
- Mark Melancon 4. Corey Knebel 4. Josh Hader
- Aroldis Chapman 5. Felipe Vazquez 5. Jeremy Jeffress
The first thing that should catch your attention is that no reliever has repeated as the top reliever in two consecutive years. The only repeater is Craig Kimbrell, and it took him four years to do it. Now, a deeper look tells us that it isn’t just the top reliever from the previous year who disappoints, but it is often almost 70 percent.
Only two of the top five relievers from 2013 (Kimbrel and Greg Holland) earned top five dollars in 2014.
And only two of the top five relievers from 2014 (Dellin Betances and Wade Davis) earned top five dollars in 2015.
2016 found two of the 2015 five top relievers in the top five. Of note, Wade Davis, 2015’s best, didn’t finish among the top 10 of relievers in 2016.
2017 saw the return of Craig Kimbrel, who had been absent from the top five in 2016, but had only one repeater, Kenley Jansen.
Last year, only Kimbrel repeated at a top five reliever. Treinen, Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress had never appeared in any top five reliever list in their MLB careers. Twenty different relievers have been in the top five over the past six years. It is a veritable revolving door, and with the exceptions of Kimbrel and Jansen, there’s very little consistency at the top of the reliever market.
Treinen has skill set to dominate, as does Edwin Diaz. But A’s won 97 games last year, and this year Vegas has that total at 83. Fourteen fewer wins generally equates to about seven fewer saves. It also generally means fewer appearances and consequently fewer innings and strikeouts. Even if Treinen were to repeat his skills from last season, he’s looking at closer to 30 saves and about 85 strikeouts, and that’s if he repeats. Seeing that Treinen had a WHIP of 1.39 in 2017 and dropped that to 0.83 in 2018, some regression is certainly in store.
Diaz is moving from Seattle, where he spent his first three seasons, to New York. T-Mobile Park in Seattle was the fourth-lowest scoring park in the majors last year, and Citi Field was the lowest scoring park last year. The Mariners surprised with 89 wins last year, and the Mets are less likely to excel, and more likely to be a .500 team. Vegas has them at 84 wins. While pitching in the National League is generally better than pitching in the American League, it takes a special personality to thrive in New York. Does Diaz have that personality? I don’t know, but I am certainly not spending a fourth round pick to find out.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
