ERA (earned run average) is familiar to all baseball fans. In 2019, the league average ERA was 4.51. Starting pitchers with an ERA under 4.00 and relievers under 3.00 are solid, especially for fantasy. Like any metric, ERA is not perfect. Numerous factors contribute to runs crossing the plate while a pitcher is on the mound, mainly the quality of the defense. FIP (fielding independent pitching) aims to eliminate these inconsistencies.
Calculated by ((HR x 13) + (3 x (BB + HBP)) – (2 x K)) / IP + FIP constant, FIP eliminates all balls in play. The formula only considers outcomes controlled by the pitcher: home runs, unintentional walks, hit batsmen and strike outs. The FIP constant changes yearly, is typically around 3.1 and ensures league average FIP is equal to league average ERA.
A second advanced stat, xFIP (expected FIP), uses projected home run rate rather than HR allowed, so the first part of the formula looks like (Fly balls / league average rate of HR per fly ball x 13). This subtle change essentially normalizes the HR aspect to account for differences in park factors and some luck.
Comparing ERA to FIP and xFIP reveals which pitchers performed better than their ERA indicates, while others benefitted from strong defense or batted ball luck. As we did last week, we’ll compute the difference between ERA, FIP and xFIP to discover which pitchers may have over or underachieved last season.
Underachievers
All the pitchers listed below have at least a one standard deviation difference for ERA – FIP (Diff) or ERA – xFIP (xDiff), and in most cases both are true. The standard deviation was .61 for Diff and .8 for xDiff, meaning that a pitcher who accrued these values is at the 16th percentile or lower. A final note, Noah Syndergaard and Chris Sale had large differentials but weren’t included because they will be missing the entire 2020 season.
German Marquez SP, Col
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 4.76 | 4.06 | 3.54 | 0.70 | 1.22 |
Marquez was a popular breakout candidate heading into 2019 but failed to follow through with a 4.76 ERA, however the advanced numbers tell a different story. Coors Field most likely factors into this and that isn’t going to change, but an improvement on last season’s ERA is entirely in the realm of possibilities. Marquez is currently being looked over as a round 14 pick.
Jose Quintana SP, CHC
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 4.80 | 3.85 | 4.24 | 0.95 | 0.56 |
Quintana has failed to live up to expectations since 2017’s midseason trade to the crosstown rivals (sending Eloy Jimenez to the White Sox), producing an ERA above 4.00 the past three seasons after never doing so previously. His 2019 FIP and xFIP are indicative of a possible return to form and confirm the north-sider is worth more than just a late round flyer.
Blake Snell SP, TBR
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 4.29 | 3.32 | 3.31 | 0.97 | 0.98 |
Injuries hampered 2019 for the reigning AL Cy Young award winner which may have contributed to his inconsistencies. Both FIP and xFIP suggest the ERA is overblown and the analytics-based Rays should get the most out of Snellzilla. A fifth-round valuation is about right.
Kyle Gibson, SP, TEX
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 4.89 | 4.26 | 3.81 | 0.63 | 1.08 |
Gibson is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball and is often overlooked because of it. Last season’s ERA was above his career 4.52 mark and xFIP indicates a better HR/FB rate will make a significant difference. The Rangers were able to get career years out of Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in 2019, let’s hope they can do the same for Gibson in 2020.
Nick Anderson RP, TBR
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 3.32 | 2.35 | 2.44 | 0.97 | 0.88 |
Anderson came out of nowhere to post the fourth highest K/9 of all relievers for the Marlins and Rays last season and the numbers indicate he could have been even better. Even if he isn’t getting every save opportunity, Anderson can be effective in a Josh Hader/ Andrew Miller role for Tampa Bay.
Edwin Diaz RP, NYM
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 5.59 | 4.51 | 3.07 | 1.08 | 2.52 |
Diaz was part of the Mets 2018 offseason overhaul and drastically underperformed in 2019. Although last season’s numbers were unsightly, his advanced stats imply he didn’t actually pitch that poorly. Diaz’ current ADP of 118 is about right as it appears he can rebound from a subpar 2019.
Overvalued
As with the underachievers, all pitchers below have at least a one standard deviation gap between ERA, FIP and xFIP, meaning they are around the 84th percentile in both. Regression is not a lock but it is noteworthy that their Diff and xDiff are sizable.
Jack Flaherty SP, Stl
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 2.75 | 3.46 | 3.64 | -0.71 | -0.89 |
Flaherty’s 2019 second half breakout proved he has ace potential and is a deserving number one starter in 2020, however the analytics suggest last season’s post all-star break numbers were a bit better than expected. Flaherty is still deserving of a top 3 selection, but late round 2 is more accurate than his current 14 overall ADP.
Mike Soroka SP, Atl
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 2.68 | 3.45 | 3.85 | -0.77 | -1.17 |
Soroka’s 2019 success was the result of incredible command and, according to the numbers, some luck. His low strike out rate is acceptable due to low walk rate and a low ERA, but FIP and xFIP imply his ERA is due to rise. An eighth round ADP is an accurate valuation of Soroka’s talents.
Mike Fiers SP, Oak
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 3.90 | 4.97 | 5.19 | -1.07 | -1.29 |
Fiers’ 15 wins in 2019 demonstrated his ability to pitch deep into games, something much more valuable in points leagues than roto, however the advanced metrics tell a different story. Both FIP and xFIP varied by more than a full run compared to ERA which is not a good sign for future performance.
Chris Paddack SP, SD
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 3.33 | 3.95 | 4.05 | -0.62 | -0.72 |
Paddack broke out as a rookie in 2019 and more innings this season will only increase his value. It appears he may have overachieved as both FIP and xFIP were around one standard deviation above his ERA. Paddack has a bright future, but a fifth round selection is a tad premature.
Julio Urias SP, LAD
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 2.01 | 3.66 | 4.38 | -1.65 | -2.37 |
Urias is a promising young pitcher for the Dodgers and it appears a path to consistent innings in 2020 exists. That being said, his FIP and xFIP tell a completely different story. Currently being drafted near the fifteenth round, Urias is no more than a late round flyer.
Ken Giles RP, Tor
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | Diff | xDiff |
| 1.87 | 2.27 | 2.73 | -0.40 | -0.76 |
Giles is a cheap save option late; the problem is he isn’t being drafted late in most leagues. A current ADP of 120 is way above his expected numbers, especially compared to 2019’s gap between ERA, FIP and xFIP. A solid value near the end of drafts, Giles isn’t worth selecting any sooner.
