If fantasy baseball existed in 1973, every fantasy manager would’ve been scrambling to the waiver wire in late June to pick up the left-handed starting pitcher who was the overall number one draft pick in the MLB Amateur Draft earlier that month. Because on June 27, this phenom was going to make his major league debut for the Texas Rangers only 20 days after his last high school start without spending a day in the minor leagues. When he allowed only one hit in five innings and struck out eight in beating the Twins 4-3 in his debut, the comparisons to Sandy Koufax began in earnest. The fairy tale seemed to be confirmed in his second start when he pitched six strong innings and struck out six against the White Sox. But he finished the 1973 season with a 4-8 record and a 5.01 ERA. The Rangers still refused to send him to the minors the next season and he finished with a 3-9 record with a 4.38 ERA. When he developed shoulder problems in 1975, they finally sent him to the minors but it was too late. His career was essentially over, and he retired after the 1979 season with an 18-33 record and a career WHIP of 1.53. Such is the cautionary tale of David Clyde. A tale of which all MLB executives and managers should take notice. It should also, however, serve as a lesson learned for all fantasy managers. If you’re in a re-draft league and you are considering drafting a prospect, who should you draft and when? How do you avoid drafting the next David Clyde? If you pay attention to three factors, you should be able to navigate the uncertain waters of MLB prospects.
First, consider if he has received enough minor league seasoning. Picking up a starting pitcher making his MLB debut days after graduating from high school might be exciting, but often will result in disaster. Even a boy wonder like Bryce Harper spent a full season in High-A and Double-A ball before making his major league debut. Future success demands minor league repetitions. Even the Texas Rangers knew that in 1973. They simply needed a temporary box office draw to improve their poor attendance record at their new ballpark, so they planned to give Clyde only two starts at the major league level and then send him to the minors. But they were completely blinded by the success he had in those two starts and never sent him down for the proper seasoning.
Secondly, the prospect must have a legitimate opportunity with the major league team this year. If he’s not going to get playing time this year, he’s not worth drafting in a re-draft league. In the case of Clyde, this box was certainly checked. But consider a case like Christian Arroyo. He was drafted 25th overall by the San Francisco Giants in 2013 and entered 2014 as their number four prospect. By 2017, his fourth year in the minors, he was their number two prospect. He batted .304 in 2015 in High-A ball and a gaudy .396 in 2017 in Triple-A. But despite all that minor league seasoning and success, he never had a legitimate shot at breaking into the starting infield for the Giants from 2014 to 2017 because of the likes of Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Pablo Sandoval. Then when he was traded to the Rays in 2018, his opportunity was blocked once again by Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, Joey Wendle and Matt Duffy. Finally he got his opportunity to start for the Red Sox last season, eight years after being drafted.
Finally, make sure you see improvement whenever he’s promoted to the next level in the minor leagues. If he has shown that he can handle jumping to the next level by improving upon his statistics, you’ll feel more confident that he can handle the jump to the major leagues.
So, who are the prospects today who check all three boxes and when should you draft them in a re-draft league? I won’t bother with the top of the class prospects like Adley Rutschman, Spencer Torkelson, Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. who will be on everyone’s radar. To get one of them, you’re going to have to expend a high draft pick and perhaps reach too far for them. Let’s look at some prospects who meet the criteria but are flying under the radar whom you can safely wait on and draft with a low pick. Fantasy championships are most often won when you can draft difference makers in the late rounds.
VIDAL BRUJAN, TAMPA BAY RAYS
Close your eyes and picture the typical Tampa Bay Ray hitter. He plays multiple positions, excellent walk to strikeout ratio, good speed, hits to all fields and has ability to fit into a platoon system. You’re describing Brujan, who enters the season as the top prospect in the organization. Brujan will get plenty of playing time for the Rays this season because he can play in the infield or outfield and he’s a switch hitter so can form a platoon with any of the left-handed Rays starters such as Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier. Brujan’s power blossomed in the minors last season as he went from four home runs in 2019 to 12 in 2021 in roughly the same number of plate appearances. His doubles total also improved from 17 to 31. When a minor league player displays such a jump in power, it usually means he’s figured something out. Brujan’s main asset, however, is his speed. He stole 55, 48 and 44 bases in his last three minor league seasons and was caught only eight times last season. Major league clubs, usually stingy in giving out stolen base attempts due to today’s sabermetric approach to offense, are more likely to give those opportunities to players who don’t get caught very often. Many fantasy managers in re-draft leagues might not consider Brujan to be a draftable commodity due to his 2-for-26 MLB debut last season, so you should be safe to wait and draft him with one of your last picks. Brujan has the potential to steal 30 bases this season, which would be gold in the starving SB category for any roto manager.
ROANSY CONTRERAS, PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Taking a chance on a rookie starting pitcher in a re-draft league can be scary, but if you stick to the three determining factors, trepidation should be somewhat relieved. Contreras made the jump from A ball in 2019 to Double-A and Triple-A in 2021 and improved in every statistical category. His ERA went down from 3.33 to 2.64, his hits per nine innings was lowered from 7.1 to 6.4, his walks per nine innings went from 2.4 to 2 and, most significantly, his strikeouts per nine innings improved from 7.7 to 12.7. When a young starting pitcher improves his ability to make hitters swing and miss, it either means he has experienced an increase in velocity, improved his spin rate or found new confidence in throwing a pitch he was previously hesitant to use. All the above are the case for Contreras. The development and command of secondary pitches is essential for young starting pitchers because two-pitch pitchers usually end up in the major league bullpen, no matter how good their stuff is. You can be confident Contreras will be a starting pitcher and considering the only sure bets in the Pirates rotation are Jose Quintana and J.T. Brubaker, he has a good chance to stick there. Entering this season as only the sixth Pirates prospect, he should fly under the radar at most drafts.
MATT VIERLING, PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
“Diamond in the rough” is a phrase that makes fantasy owners salivate. Recognizing a player’s ability before anyone else and accurately projecting his value is in the job description. Vierling was a fifth-round draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies and entered their prospect list in 2018 at number 36. But after a lackluster performance in High-A ball in 2019 with an OPS of .626, he vaulted up the prospect lists in 2021, hitting 11 home runs, stealing 10 bases, and improving his OPS to .802 in 79 games at Double-A and Triple-A. When he was called up to the majors last June, even he said he didn’t realize he was on the Phillies’ radar for a promotion. He made the most of his promotion, hitting .324 in 77 plate appearances with an .843 OPS. Given that performance, this gem might have already been uncovered by a lot of fantasy owners prior to this year’s draft. Still the small sample size and his unsustainable .420 BABIP last season might keep him off the radar in most re-draft leagues. I wouldn’t be deterred by the small sample size. There were metrics last season which point toward sustainability. After showing a propensity to pull the ball in the minors, Vierling hit the ball 32.7 percent of the time to the opposite field and pulled the ball 30.8 percent of the time. Such even distribution is rare for a young hitter. He also had a hard-hit percentage of 53.8. By way of comparison, Shohei Ohtani’s hard-hit percentage was 53.4. Vierling can play either left or center field. Given the fact that the only other outfielders not named Bryce Harper on the Phillies are Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley, Vierling should get ample playing time this year in a hitter’s friendly home ballpark.
