Position Scarcity is a hot topic every year in fantasy baseball. Quality catchers are scarce. Heck, a catcher that will provide positive value is hard to find. Some years, shortstop or second base dries up quickly. Recently, third base has fluctuated between abundant and scarce.
However, Position Scarcity is not a typical topic in fantasy football. This year, like many other years, we waited on quarterbacks, as there were at least 20 signal callers that a fantasy team could start without blinking. Indeed, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was rostered in just 4.3% of NFFC 12-team leagues, put up incredible numbers. Joe Flacco, owned in less than 60% of the leagues put up quality numbers as well. Quarterbacks are easy.
There are dozens of wide receivers who are worthy of a starting spot. The same is true of running backs, although the top dozen or so are far superior to the second tier.
That brings us to Tight Ends. For years, pundits and drive-time radio personalities have advocated a wait on tight end approach, not dissimilar to the same approach taken on kickers and defenses. The thought process appears to be that tight ends are:
a) unreliable,
b) not really any good, and/or
c) are pretty much all the same.
Those pundits believe that taking a wide receiver or running back is a better option. I, of course, disagree. Not only to I advise taking two tight ends among the first eight rounds, I practice what I preach.
I am in four NFFC leagues (I won the only league I was in last year, and drafted Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed), and in those leagues I have the following:
Primetime Rob Gronkowski (3rd Round); Jordan Reed (8th Round);
Auction Travis Kelce ($27); Jordan Reed ($6)
$250 Draft Travis Kelce (3rd Round); Tyler Eifert (13th Round);
CreativeSports League Travis Kelce (3rd Round); Zach Ertz (4th Round).
Tight ends went at a premium (and rightfully so in the $250 Draft), so I was not able to secure a second top nine tight end, so the strategy was back burnered for that draft.
The two tight end approach works best if you can secure a pair of quality running backs in the first couple or rounds. Otherwise, you are chasing running backs and whatever gains you made with tight ends are more than lost with by your third tier running back.
Tight end is a scarce position. After Gronkowski, Kelce and Ertz, there’s a marked drop off to the oft-injured (and apparently injured yet again) Greg Olsen, the unproven Trey Burton, and the old and now playing with a quarterback who hasn’t had much success with tight ends, Jimmy Graham. Evan Engram, Delanie Walker (now out for the year), and the high potential but low floor Jordan Reed round out the top nine. After that, you might as well throw a dart. The next three “best” by ADP are Kyle Rudolph, David Njoku and Jack Doyle. Yes, it’s ugly.
Gronk, Kelce and Ertz are likely to get you somewhere on average around sixteen points weekly. Comparable wide receivers taken around these three (Stefon Diggs and T.Y. Hilton sandwiched Gronkowski in ADP, Larry Fitzgerald and Doug Baldwin sandwiched Kelce, and Marquis Goodwin and Allen Robinson sandwiched Ertz), will score on average, about two points higher than their tight end counterparts. So, you are starting with a small negative, admitted.
However, if you can secure a top three tight end, and couple him with another of the top nine, you are certainly in a strong situation at the position. Right off the bat, four of the other eleven teams in your league don’t have a top nine tight end, giving you a huge advantage as you get quality points at tight end, and those teams are looking at five points on average per week. Toss in a pair of injuries to Walker and Olsen, and your advantage extends to five teams. Consider the bye weeks (you can always replace a wide receiver with an almost comparable wide receiver), and you have an advantage over your opponents yet again.
Replacement wide receivers are plentiful. Replacement tight ends not so much.
It’s a tough approach to take as you are passing on perceived value at wide receiver. However, there is value later (7th round and later) in the draft at wide receiver, and the loss is certainly not that significant.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
