A tendency I have, that you may have too, is to sometimes pay a little bit too much attention to prospects with unique or attention getting names. It’s only human nature… we are so used to the monotony of the large swaths of prospects in the baseball world that when an Akil Baddoo or Yermin Mercedes comes along, you might pay more attention, and importantly, put more emphasis on his successes than his failures because you want to root for him. You want him to succeed. But this isn’t what pays the bills in either DFS or season long, it’s the actual analysis. Moreover, another poor tendency we can develop is anchoring too much on early season performance when we should know deep down that the performance will almost always revert to what we know to expect over the long term.
In this week’s installment, we’ll take a look at a player who has had some extreme outcomes to start the season, as well as some players who might be able to break out with the opportunity they’ve been given, which will be a consistent theme in this piece throughout the season.
Akil Baddoo
Something that happens with a decent amount of frequency when a prospect with some power gets called up to The Show is that he will go on an unreal tear of power out of the gate, seemingly knocking one out of the yard every night. We will wonder if he is indeed the next big thing, and then the league will develop a scouting report and he will turn back into an Austin Riley pumpkin before you know it. Now I’m not saying that is what will happen with Baddoo, but let’s look at who he was prior to two weeks in 2021: he struck out a bunch, never hit more than 11 HRs in a season (and that was in A Ball), never hit .300 and never had more than a .200 ISO.
So while we know his current pace (especially that .593 ISO) is unsustainable, is he sustainable as a major leaguer? In the sense that he is a Rule 5 pick, well yes he is likely to be on the major league roster. But to consistently put up major league numbers? I’m not so sure. I think it is far more likely that we see him revert to replacement level production, and so this is very much a case where you may want to sell with helium still in the balloon in season long.
Adolis Garcia
I don’t feel the need to reiterate all of the same discussion points mentioned with Baddoo that I would also apply to Yermin Mercedes, it is repetitive and I aim not to be. I do want to talk about the Rangers newest toolsy prospect, as there could be a little more staying power here.
While Garcia has never ascended to the top of any prospect lists, he certainly fits the mold of what the Rangers want to do. Swing hard, run a decent amount, put the ball in the seats and not really worry about striking out too much. Garcia can do all of those things! He can actually play a decent right field and has been graded out as having a 70 arm, which I know we don’t care about for fantasy purposes, but if it helps keep him in the lineup, I’m all for it.
The Rangers themselves seem to think highly of him, which is important for opportunity. Since joining the lineup on Tuesday taking Ronald Guzman’s roster spot, he has hit 6th, 4th, and 4th . Like, yes, it is the Rangers and what are there other options, right? But the could also very easily hit Nick Solak 4th and they haven’t.
For Garcia’s part- he’s rewarded them for doing so. He went 1-for-4 in his debut, but then came within a few inches of a three-run dinger on Wednesday, and hit his first which was a game winner on Thursday. The Rangers have some reinforcements coming soon in Khris Davis and Willie Calhoun, but if Garcia can prove he is worthy of a lineup spot in the interim, he may very well continue to see regular at batss, as the Rangers should not be mistaken for having any interest in competing this year.
Austin Gomber
Yes I know he is a pitcher for the Rockies and we are supposed to not like pitchers for the Rockies because of Coors Field. I also know he was part of a decidedly underwhelming return for Nolan Arenado and predisposes us to have somewhat of a negative outlook on him. But could it be possible that all of those things are biases that we shouldn’t necessarily have and miss the analysis we should be doing?
Probably!
While the disproportionate amount of walks so far this season are definitely of concern and should be monitored, walks/control haven’t really been an issue up until this point of his career, so we shouldn’t be overly concerned. And while his movement based arsenal is likely not the skill set most equipped for success at Coors Field, he isn’t always going to pitch there. And when he is pitching in other NL West parks that aren’t his home park, not only does the skill set play, he’ll have pretty enticing matchups. Even in the toughest matchup possible, he managed a 7 strikeout quality start on Thursday night against the Dodgers, which you’ll probably take from anyone, let alone a guy that most of your competition will be hesitant to roster.
Digging under the hood a bit, Gomber has consistently but up mid to high 20% K rates along side consistent single digit BB%s, so there is something there if he can normalize toward those numbers this season. So far this season, he’s also exhibited a more extreme ground ball split (61.9%) than at any point in his career, as well as limited opponents to only 18.2% hard contact.
All of these are the things you want to see from a starting pitcher. Again, while you’d rather his home starts not come at Coors, if you can afford the roster spot in season long or only target him in DFS when he’s on the road, Austin Gomber has the potential to be a difference maker this season as he develops into a bona fide starting pitcher.
