Editor’s Note: This piece was filed on Thursday July 30 but was not posted until August 2
One of my favorite times of the year is MLB trade deadline day because of the whirlwind of deals that happen over the course of the week. This deadline has been relatively slow so far, but there are still three days remaining as of writing this article, so there is room for things to heat up. One of the reasons I find the MLB trade deadline so entertaining, as well as trading in general, is that it is a game within a game. One team needs to get better, so they have to find a way to improve while also helping another team improve in the process. Sometimes it works out well for both teams, other times it feels like there is a clear winner and loser. Today, I’ll be digging in to the fantasy aspect of a few deals that have happened already.
Strike 1
The first major trade saw Pittsburgh second baseman and outfielder Adam Frazier head to the San Diego Padres in exchange for a group of prospects. Frazier leads the MLB in hits by two over Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, who recently tested positive for Covid-19, so he should be able to extend his lead in hits.
Frazier has been Pittsburgh’s leadoff hitter this season, but is going to a team that has done well alternating between Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham as leadoff hitters depending on the pitching matchup. It is likely the Padres will add Frazier into that leadoff mix, but there is also a chance that he bats sixth or seventh in the lineup on days where San Diego wants to play matchups and get Pham or Grisham some early at-bats. This could certainly decrease Frazier’s output, which would not only lessen his chance to lead baseball in hits, but also lower his fantasy baseball value.
Frazier’s BABIP currently sits at .360, which is about 45 points higher than his normal BABIP; however, his line drive rate has skyrocketed to 30% this year, which could be a reason for the spike in BABIP. Beyond the batting average and the runs scored, Frazier has not done much to help fantasy teams. He only has four home runs and five steals on the season and he does not hit the ball very hard (only a 1.2% barrel rate). Yet, his launch angle is right around the sweet spot to be able to hit home runs, and his HR/FB rate is about half of what it is for his career, so there is room for improvement in the home run department.
On one hand, moving to San Diego may increase Frazier’s production in runs because the lineup around him should be able to drive him home, especially if they let him lead off. On the other hand, playing in San Diego certainly hurts his power output.
This deal will also impact first baseman Eric Hosmer and/or outfielder Wil Myers. With Frazier able to play second and in the outfield, he should either replace Myers in the outfield, or shift Jake Cronenworth to first base while Frazier plays second. Rumors are swirling that either Hosmer or Myers or both could be on the move before the deadline is over. Their fantasy value will certainly depend on where they land or if they move at all.
Strike 2
Over the last week, Tampa Bay has made two major deals, sending starting pitcher Rich Hill to the Mets for a few pieces that are not fantasy relevant, and acquiring designated hitter Nelson Cruz from the Twins.
The Rays have managed Hill extremely well this season. Hill has had a difficult time staying healthy, and this is his first time surpassing 100 innings pitched since the 2018 season. Typically the Rays have pulled him out of games before his third time through the order, and in his first game pitching for the Mets, they did the same thing. Obviously, the Mets front office paid attention to how to handle him and are following suit.
On the season, hill has an 8 K/9 and a 3.95 ERA. His HR/FB rate allowed is around the league average, but there are a few things that signal regression for him, despite moving to a division with two teams below .500, and two other teams struggling to stay above .500.
Hill walks nearly 3.5 batters per nine innings and is also giving up 1.26 HR/9 which is the fourth highest rate of his career. His BABIP is also about 20 points lower than his career average. All of those factors suggest regression, which is reflected in his xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all being greater than 4.40.
On the flip side, the NL East should be a much easier division to pitch in than the AL East, and has fewer hitters ballparks, so perhaps those factors cancel out and he hovers around a 4.00 ERA for the rest of the year.
As far as Cruz coming to Tampa, his addition should help boost the fantasy value of everyone in the Rays’ lineup, including Cruz. The Rays have been starving for home runs, and now have one of the best home run hitters in baseball. In particular, this should add value to players like Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Wander Franco, and Brandon Lowe who should bat around Cruz in the lineup.
Cruz currently has a .285 batting average, but a mildly suppressed BABIP suggests the average could improve slightly throughout the rest of the season. Cruz has also been mashing the ball this year. His 54% hard-hit rate is the highest of his career and is ninth in baseball, just behind Juan Soto and Manny Machado.
His HR/FB rate is exactly at his career average, so it is unlikely he gets to 40 home runs this year, but a 35 home run season with a .290 batting average is not out of the question and would put him in the conversation as a top-40 fantasy hitter.
Strike 3
These are not deals that have happened, but deals that COULD happen, along with some fantasy baseball evaluation.
Starting pitcher Max Scherzer is on the trade block for the Washington Nationals. Rumors are he wants to play out West, but there are limited teams there who are not only buyers, but also have room for his salary without going over the luxury tax. The Dodgers are presumably interested in adding another arm, but taking on Scherzer’s contract would put them well over the luxury tax threshold, and they may not be willing to do that. One interesting landing spot for him would be San Francisco. He would be a great fit in that rotation, and the pitching coach there has worked wonders with all the pitchers in that rotation, so imagine him working with Max. I expect Scherzer to remain an elite pitcher wherever he lands.
Twins starting pitcher Jose Berrios is also likely to be on the move. Berrios has a much more reasonable contract than Scherzer, so naturally there are more teams interested in him that can also afford him. Possible landing spots for Berrios include the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, and Padres. Most rumors have him tied to the Mets, where he would immediately see an increase in fantasy value simply because of the teams he would be playing against.
Finally, Miami is looking to unload just about everyone who is not in their rotation. One of the prime candidates to be traded is outfielder Starling Marte, who is in the final year of his deal. Plenty of teams could use outfield help, and the team he has been connected with in rumors is the New York Yankees. Marte would likely see a power increase in New York, and would move to a better offense as well, but a move to any contender should create an increase in fantasy value for Starling Marte.
