Tony Pollard did not receive a carry and caught his only target for a five-yard loss in Sunday’s game. So, should you drop him? If Ezekiel Elliott is on your roster, don’t do it. Although he only scored 89.2 fantasy points as a rookie, Pollard truly separated himself among backup running backs last year with his efficiency and playmaking ability. Pollard’s total output only resulted in an RB53 ranking, but he also ranked 17th in points per snap among all backs.
As the efficiency suggests, Pollard was superb on the field. He ranked fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.27) and first in yards after contact per attempt (4.5) among all running backs with 50-plus rushing attempts. In addition to his work as a runner, Pollard proved to be a back worthy of pass-game usage, too — he ranked 11th in yards after catch (YAC) per reception (9.3) and 23rd in yards per route run (1.32) among all running backs with 20-plus targets.
If Elliott goes down with an injury, Pollard, the Cowboys’ No. 2 running back, becomes an RB1 overnight. And yet, I observed this week that his %ROST is only 31.5% in ESPN leagues and 27% in Yahoo leagues. This amazes me because he’s the No. 1 understudy in the game. The Cowboys have one of the top offenses in the NFL, and they still use the bell-cow approach behind center. But 70% or more of those rostering Elliott don’t have Pollard.
Now consider the case of Alexander Mattison, the No. 2 backup in the game. Like Pollard, his current workload is minimal. But his potential volume as a starter would be astronomical with the run-first Vikings offense that does not utilize a committee approach. In 2019, Mattison totaled 110 touches for 70.4 total points, which placed him at RB60. He ranked first on the Vikings’ roster in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.18) and second in yards after contact per attempt (3.2).
While Mattison is as good a runner as Pollard, he wasn’t used as much in the passing game. He totaled only 10 receptions on 11 targets in 2019. Even with his lack of pass-game usage, Mattison should be on your roster if you count on Dalvin Cook because the Vikings offense still grinds out production on the ground. Interestingly, Mattison has larger %ROST than Pollard, upwards of 40% in ESPN leagues and Yahoo leagues.
This leads me to my point. The majority of people who play fantasy football don’t understand the importance of backing up bell cow backs to provide insurance. If you drafted Elliott or Cook in the first round, a later pick should have been expended on their respective backups, Pollard and Mattison.
You need to understand when to pair up running backs from the same team is not an exact science. The need depends on several factors, including the value of the starter in question, the price and quality of the teammate and the overall clarity of the backfield situation. The rule of the thumb is that it’s a good idea to insure your top back – assuming he was drafted in the first or second round and there is a clear next-in-line. If there is no clear-cut backup to your stud running back, you can pass.
Let’s break this down a little bit more with a few examples. If you drafted Le’Veon Bell in the fourth round of your draft, you didn’t need to worry about drafting Frank Gore. The first reason is that if Bell is your RB1, your team was in trouble before Bell was injured. The second reason is that the Jets are so bad that Gore isn’t even fantasy relevant as the lead back. Consider that Gore ran the carried the ball 21 times the week after Bell went down and racked up only 6.3 fantasy points.
A second above-mentioned criterion is the price and quality of the reserve. I drafted Nick Chubb in one of my leagues but did not get Kareem Hunt. If Chubb is injured, Hunt would easily become an RB1. But the problem is that Hunt goes in the fifth or sixth round of most drafts. In this case, Hunt clearly checks the box as a quality backup, but the price was too high for me. I was focused on adding fantasy relevant wide receivers in these rounds after loading up on running backs early on.
I had Elliott on this team, but Pollard was a no-brainer because I was able to get him in the 13th round. The opportunity cost was much less. Someone falling in between Hunt and Pollard is Latavius Murray, who is usually drafted in the 10th or 11th round. When Alvin Kamara was injured last year, Murray stepped up and finished ranked 28th in running back scoring last season (157.2). Murray, who also has stand-alone value, had 637 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
A backup that emerged from obscurity to notoriety was Mike Davis. Before the injury to Christian McCaffrey in Week 2, his name was Mike Who? No one knew if Davis was next in line because McCaffrey hadn’t missed a game in his three seasons with the Carolina Panthers. Analysts could only speculate that Davis would be a bell-cow back instead of sharing time with Trenton Cannon. Clarity came quickly as Davis scored 23.1 fantasy points on Sunday.
I TOLD YOU SO
A shout-out to all of you Joe Mixon owners, I told you so. If you ignored my advice and drafted Mixon in the first or second round, you may be freaking out right now. Volume isn’t the problem. Mixon had 19 touches on Sunday after having 20 in each of the first two games. He was held scoreless for the third straight week. I realize a similar situation unfolded last year in Cincinnati, but if you drafted Mixon, you’re griping.
The facts about the Bengals’ situation will keep you up at night. Cincinnati has the worst offensive line in football, as Mixon is averaging under 1.5 yards before contact through the first three weeks of the season. To add insult to injury, the Bengals continue to play Giovani Bernard over him in the two-minute drills and in many passing situations. I hate to sell low, but there is a time to cut your losses and move on. If you can get anything for Mixon, trade him now.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, runs his own blog at www.doubtingthomassports.com. Follow Thomas on Twitter.
