There was not a lot of excitement around the San Jose Sharks coming into this season. It looked like a roster bogged down by aging players on heavy contracts, and one of their best offensive players, Evander Kane, seemed unlikely to play for the team again, due to a myriad of legal/off-the-ice issues. However, we’re quickly approaching the end of January and the Sharks find themselves holding a playoff spot in spite of their perceived flaws.
You don’t have to look farther than the explosive performance of Timo Meier to explain San Jose’s surprising performance. After a five goal (yes, five) game against the LA Kings, the 25-year-old winger is on pace for a 105 point season (20 goals and 25 assists through 35 games), while providing above-average physicality. That’s good enough to make him a top-10 forward in standard scoring leagues – not bad for a player who had an ADP between round 13-15.
As his ADP indicates, Meier was largely overlooked by fantasy players this season, playing on team that was expected to be towards the bottom of the league offensively. Admittedly, I didn’t have him pegged as anything close to a top 10 player. However, a closer look shows that his breakout didn’t come out of nowhere. In the last “full” NHL season (2018-19) the 6’1” power forward recorded 30 goals and 36 assists, to pair with an impressive 99 hits. This is especially impressive, considering Meier played a more complementary offensive role in his age 22 season, on what was a much better Sharks team (finishing with a 46-27-9 record). He averaged 16:58 in ice time, playing primarily on the third line, and second power play unit. Since then, the Sharks have undergone a rebuild, and Meier was elevated to the top line for the first time in his career. Now the focal point of the Sharks offense, Meier’s strong shot and high-level offensive awareness have led to his current elite level of production. Now averaging nearly 19 minutes of ice time, he’s become the type of multi-category producer that can win fantasy leagues – especially if you got him in the 15th round.
If Meier’s can stay close to his current pace, and I have little reason to believe he won’t, he could very well be a first round pick in drafts next season and will be highly coveted in keeper/dynasty formats. While it’s hard to predict a breakout of this caliber, Meier offers some lessons to keep in mind when evaluating players for potential “sleepers”. As the 9th overall pick in the 2015 draft, Meier certainly had the talent to become an elite player, and his willingness and ability to play a physical, two-way game allowed him to make the jump to the NHL sooner than most. While his ability to succeed in a bottom-six role established Meier in the league, he became an elite offensive player when given the opportunity. The first lesson here is patience. We’ve become spoiled by rookies that coming into the league as immediate offensive difference-makers. However, this should still be viewed as the exception rather than the norm. A case like Meier’s is far more common. It’d be easy to cap his value as a solid, albeit unspectacular depth option for your fantasy team once his “prospect hype” wore off, ignoring a skillset that hinted at higher potential.
The second lesson is to avoid making the mistake of ignoring players on bad teams, or teams perceived as less “exciting”. This mindset is why Meier fell in drafts this season. Yes, playing on a better team with better players can also boost production. However, playing in a weaker lineup allows a player like Meier to become “the guy”. We often get excited when a highly touted prospect is called up to a contending team, assuming that he’ll excel around other highly skilled teammates. However, in this scenario, a player has a much shorter leash. A team looking to make a playoff run can’t afford to give significant minutes to a player who doesn’t immediately produce (which, again, is rare). Meanwhile, a “rebuilding” team would be more motivated to give these players an extended look, and time to adjust to the NHL (see Anaheim, as well).
This circles back to the idea I focused on last week, identifying and targeting opportunity. Simply put, it’s easier to find an extended opportunity when there’s less high-end competition in a lineup. We see these scenarios more often when a player changes teams. JT Miller is one example that comes to mind here. Like Meier, Miller was a 1st round draft pick who reached the NHL quickly with the Rangers, thanks to his ability to play a physical, two-way game. For the first eight years of his career, Miller typically played bottom six minutes for the Rangers and another strong team in the Tampa Bay Lightning, recording just one season where he scored over 50 points. In 2019, Miller was signed by the Vancouver Canucks and went on to a 27 goal/72 point season, obliterating his previous career highs in his 9th NHL season. In a weaker Vancouver lineup, Miller was given an opportunity to play over 20 minutes a game, utilizing his skillset as a power forward to focus more on offensive production.
The overall moral of the Timo Meier story seems to be “trust good players”. Prior to this season, he had proven that he’s a quality player. However, given an expanded opportunity, Meier reached another level. Now the Sharks (and if you’re lucky, your fantasy team) have a player to build around for the future. When preparing for drafts next season, don’t let biases deter you from taking a risk on a player that most are ignoring – otherwise, you might miss out on the next Timo Meier.
