Six weeks into the season and its time to revisit tight ends. Pundits will (and have) told you that there’s no reason to draft a tight end early. You can always stream tight ends. Rob Gronkowski doesn’t play all sixteen games. Tight ends aren’t important, and drafting more than one tight end early is not only stupid, but its utterly stupid.
OK, I get it. These talking heads preach drafting many multiple running backs and wide receivers before drafting your tight end. It you listen to these “experts,” you will think that tight ends are just this side of kickers.
If you’ve read me before, you know that I place an inordinate value upon tight ends. When everyone else is taking their third running back or fourth wide receiver, I’m taking my second tight end. If my drafts go as expected, I will have two tight ends in the first six rounds. The other eleven owners will snicker, but things going as expected, they won’t have the last laugh.
Now that we are over a third of the way through the season, let’s see how things are going. The top eight tight ends drafted, based upon NFFC ADP, were:
- Rob Gronkowski (Ave points/game played by team this season of 11.92)
- Travis Kelce (17.34)
- Zach Ertz (16.30)
- Jimmy Graham (13.58)
- Trey Burton (10.62)
- Greg Olson (2.81)
- Eric Ebron (16.42)
- Jordan Reed (9.50)
Yes, Greg Olson has disappointed. He’s appeared in just two games, and his average points per the Panther’s games (you have to take account both games he plays and those he sits) is abysmal. The other seven have performed reasonably well, with Kelce and Ertz standing out, just as they were expected to do. Engram has been the recipient of good fortune with injuries to his teammates, partially accounting for his inflated number. Engram owners aren’t complaining. Gronk hasn’t done enough yet, but he’s been healthy and will break out, sooner than later. The average of these eight highly drafted tight ends is 11.13.
What about the streaming tight ends? They must be doing really well too, right? After all, those experts couldn’t be wrong, could they?
The next eight tight ends taken are averaging a combined 5.88 points per game played by team. The difference between the top tight ends and the streamers is over five points per game. Take a look at your past six games. How many times could you have used an additional five points?
But wait, there’s more. You must be thinking, “yes, but I wouldn’t have been able to take that third running back or fourth wide receiver if I drafted a tight end early.” You are right. Let’s see how those players are doing for you.
Players drafted right around Gronkowski (one pick before, two picks after) were T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans and Devonta Freeman. Gronk has been more productive than two of those three.
Players drafted right around Travis Kelce were Larry Fitzgerald, Alex Collins and Jarvis Landry. Kelce has outperformed each.
Players drafted right around Zach Ertz were Marquis Goodwin, Jay Ajayi and Allen Robinson. Three for three for Ertz.
Players drafted right around Jimmy Graham were Carlos Hyde, Tevin Coleman and Nelson Agholor. Tougher here, but considering position scarcity, Graham has to get the nod.
Players drafted right around Trey Burton were Peyton Barber, Robert Woods and Robby Anderson. Another two wins for tight ends.
I could go on and on, but why bother? At this point, you must have the idea. Streaming tight ends can work. Heck, you might be lucky enough to get Jared Cook and Austin Hooper. Then again, you could get Tyler Eifert, Charles Clay and Ricky Seals-Jones. It’s a crapshoot with streaming, and more often than not it just doesn’t work.
Based upon the lemming-like drafting that goes on year after year, tight ends will continue to be under valued and under drafted, giving you an excellent opportunity to help your own team while hurting the remaining teams.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
