Drafting tight ends in fantasy football can be one of the most frustrating experiences in the world. It’s like going to a movie you thought was going to be really good and walking away disappointed. “I’ll never get those two hours and that ten dollars back,” you mumble as you walk out of the theater. So, it is for me with my middle-round tight ends that always seem to bust.
Hoping not to be disappointed again in 2023, I have a new strategy for drafting a tight end. Go great, or go late. What I mean is I will either take the top tight end, or wait until well after pick number 100 to take one. Then, I’ll take another. It’s not a mistake to take two tight ends late in the draft because the position is not deep and there are many intriguing late options this year.
If you wind up going late instead of great, you’re hoping one of the two tight ends you draft can score 11 PPR points per game. That mark might not seem like much to you, but it should. Last season, only five tight ends averaged 11.0 or more PPR points per game. That’s also about the five-year average for what’s been “next best” among tight ends not named Travis Kelce.
Let’s talk about great first. Kelce is the no-doubter No. 1 tight end in football. If you are able to roster Kelce, you will have the expectation that Patrick Mahones’ favorite target will give you a decided advantage – at least five PPR points per game over the next best tight end. Last year, Kelce was 5.3 points per game better than the erratic George Kittle, who missed two games.
If you’re still not convinced about Kelce, here’s some historical evidence. Kelce has been the No. 1 tight end in fantasy in six of the past seven seasons. In the other year, he was No. 2 behind Mark Andrews. In those years, he’s averaged 17.1 points per game in PPR. There is no tight end in football that has held a candle to Kelce, and I don’t expect that to change this year.
Of course, there are no guarantees in fantasy football. Kelce, who turns 34 in October, has stayed healthy and on the field throughout his career. But Father Time is undefeated, and Kelce could get injured or see his skills begin to decline in 2023. This is worth mentioning because you’re not going to obtain his services on your team unless you spend a first-round draft pick.
If you are drafting at the end of the first round, you probably won’t get Kelce. His average draft position (ADP) is No. 5 overall. In a recent mock draft, I was thrilled to scoop him up with the ninth pick, but that doesn’t happen very often. So, if you don’t draft early enough, or you don’t want to invest a top-five pick, let’s consider the other options later in the draft.
As you prepare for your draft, here’s an exercise I would recommend that will help you. First, rank the top 20 tight ends, or look at an ADP list. The most reliable site that I know to direct you to is FantasyPros. Their ADP is based on drafts being conducted from at least five different sites. Second, narrow your list to those available after pick 100. You just cut your list in half.
The second list includes sleeper tight ends you’d consider rostering as you start the season. If you take my advice, you have just eliminated Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Evan Engram, David Njoku and Pat Freiermuth. These are not bad players, but they are all going to be gone after eight rounds in a 12-team draft.
If you are interested in any of these nine players, there are plenty of websites to go and read about them. Some analysts love Mark Andrews and would tell you he’s worth a third-round pick. But in the last five years, Andrews has been tight end 17, 5, 6, 1 and 4 in that order. There’s no way that I would consider him in the third round because of the opportunity cost.
I’ve written about opportunity cost in reference to both fantasy football and baseball drafts. It’s a term I borrowed from the financial world during my 30 plus years as a financial advisor. Simply put, opportunity cost refers to what you have to give up to buy what you want. In an economic context, this is usually stated in terms of other goods or services. In a draft, it’s other players.
In the case of Andrews, his ADP is 27. If I take Andrews with the third pick of the third round, I’m passing up some players that I really like at other positions. For instance, one or more of the “Big Three” quarterbacks might still be on the board. The Big Three QBs are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. I’ll take one of them over Andrews without a second thought.
The logic here is that these three players can score close to 30 fantasy points per game, while Andrews has average slightly less than 13 over the past five years. On the other hand, over those five seasons, 48% of the tight ends who have finished top five in PPR have been drafted in Round 10 or later. This list includes Evan Engram in 2022, who’s now being drafted as TE8.
Let’s turn our attention now to the tight ends in the “late” part of my strategy. Dalton Shultz, Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Higbee, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Gerald Everett, Greg Dulcich, Juwan Johnson, Sam Laporta and Dawson Knox. In my opinion, these tight ends all have a shot at finishing top five at that position. They all also are being drafted at a relative low cost.
The low cost is important because players drafted in the later rounds (10-15) are easier to move on from if they don’t deliver big numbers compared to the tight ends being drafted earlier. I won’t tell you how many times I’ve benched a tight end drafted in one of the middle rounds and streamed the position because that tight end was performing so poorly. But it’s more than once.
When considering the late strategy, also consider how late. Schultz will likely cost you a tenth round pick, Kmet and Kincaid an 11th, Higbee a 12th and Okonkwo a 12th or 13th. If I don’t take Kelce in the first round, it’s likely that I will take my two tight ends in the 12th and 13th rounds, before I take my defense and kicker. So, let’s take a closer look at Okonkwo and the other five.
CHIGOZIEM OKONKWO, TE, TENNESSE
“Chig” caught 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns in his rookie season. He averaged 14.1 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target, flashing some speed and tackle-breaking ability after the catch. But he was only TE21, with a 4.1 PPG average. The arrival of target hog DeAndre Hopkins in this run-first offense further limits Okonkwo’s upside. I’ll pass on him.
GERALD EVERETT, TE, LA CHARGERS
Everett posted career highs in receptions and receiving yardage in 2022, finishing with 58 catches for 555 yards. He hasn’t finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in any of his six NFL seasons, but he’s established himself as a decent TE2 and is likely to be on the board in the 13th round. If you think Justin Herbert is going to take a step forward this year, Everett is a good value.
GREG DULCICH, TE, DENVER
Dulcich missed the first five games of his rookie season with a hamstring injury, but he was productive when he returned, scoring a touchdown in his NFL debut and finishing the season with 33 catches for 411 yards in 10 games. He finished third on his team in receptions. With Seam Payton in town already touting Dulcich’s playmaking skills, he’s rising on draft boards.
JUWAN JOHNSON, TE, NEW ORLEANS
A former undrafted free agent, Johnson finished TE11 in half-point PPR scoring last season after catching 42 passes for 508 yards and seven touchdowns in a sluggish offense. New Orleans didn’t select any of the top tight ends in the draft, and they traded Adam Trautman to the Broncos, so the Saints must believe in the athletic Johnson. He’s a good value in the 13th round.
SAM LAPORTA, TE, DETROIT
The success rate for rookie tight ends in fantasy is low, but Detroit selected him early in the second round as the second tight end taken in the draft last April. I expect LaPorta to step right into a significant role in an ascending Lions offense and see decent target volume right away with Jameson Williams serving a six-game suspension. He’s another TE worth a 13th-round pick.
DAWSON KNOX, TE, BUFFALO
I’m not a believer in drafting a touchdown-dependent player, but I’d make an exception for Knox because he’s scored 15 touchdowns in the last two years – third-most among tight ends. If you do select him in the 13th round, expect a bumpy ride because Knox has never caught 50 passes in a year and he finished with 25 or fewer yards in eight of 17 games in 2022. But the price is right.
There they are – five tight ends likely to be available in the 12th or 13th rounds. I can guarantee you that some of these will be a bust, but one or two will probably wind up in the top 10. So, buy a couple of lottery tickets. It’s not a rookie mistake to take two tight ends. Keep in mind that the trade value if you hit on a late-rounder would be great if you happen to hold two winning tickets.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
