I have to admit that by my selecting a generic title like this, some of you are going to be disappointed.
No, this is not the next in a long line of articles begging Major League Baseball owners and Commissioner Rob Manfred to throw in the towel on the most disrupted season in the history of the game – though it could.
Instead, this is my post-mortem for the 2020 edition of my team in the Xperts Fantasy League. The XFL was the first keeper league for industry writers and analysis. I’ve been trying unsuccessfully for 15 years to earn my first crown.
As you can expect, my peer owners are some of the most experienced and brightest minds in the fantasy industry. In a group like this, gimmick strategies just won’t work. The proven route to winning is to build a strong farm system and reap the benefits when these players reach the majors and excel.
Pulled off properly, a multi-year run is possible thanks to a rule that rewards owners for investing in young talent. Salaries for players acquired as minor leaguers grow at a rate of $3 per year, compared to $5 for others.
That may not sound like a lot, but take Mike Trout for example. His owner has rostered the Angels superstar for the last 10 seasons – his entire big-league career – and still paid just $28 for him in 2020 (and $31 next). At this rate, another five years of below-market value from the new father likely still remain ahead. By the time the rest of us get a shot at acquiring Trout, his career peak will be in the rearview mirror.
Though years have shown that my eye is better trained to identify future pitching talent, their shorter career windows (on the average) and more hurdles to overcome just to reach the majors make pitching less valuable than hitting in this format.
Having thought I would be set for years with Alex Reyes and Jose Berrios at the top of my rotation, several years ago, I redirected my focus in drafting and trades to build an offensive pipeline. With young stars including outfielders Yordan Alvarez and Austin Meadows, I thought 2020 finally might be my year to move into a contending role.
With Reyes having fallen by the wayside three years ago, I needed proven arms alongside Berrios to contend this season. The area in which I identified value prior to our October 2019 draft was in post-peak performers with some injury concern.
On draft day, I was pleased with my $52 spent on a pair of decorated pitchers, each with the same 10-years of MLB experience as Trout. However, for the aforementioned reasons, their original owners had already thrown them back in the free agent pool. My take included two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber ($23) and Chris Sale ($29), coming off eight consecutive top five finishes for the same honors.
That elation lasted just a few days into spring training, when Sale’s right elbow gave out, leading to Tommy John surgery. Yes, there was a warning last fall, but I wanted so much to believe the reports that the platelet-rich injections and the follow-up clean bill of health from Dr. James Andrews would hold.
The Klubot hardly had a clear 2019, either, with a fractured arm and an oblique strain rendering his season pretty much worthless. But those were not structural breakdowns, I reasoned, so there seemed no reason the Kluber of old would not return.
That Kluber was traded to Texas in December did not excite me, nor did it lead to high levels of consternation. That changed when he was pulled from his first start after one inning. Kluber suffered a Grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in his shoulder. If he is able to return at all in 2020, it will be out of the bullpen in the final weeks of the season.
In a way, I am glad Kluber was injured early. That way, the path that Sale sent me down was now paved and freshly-lined. In addition to the pitching pair, both Alvarez and Meadows (plus four other players for a total of eight) were also on the injured list.
2020 would not be my year.
So with my team already in last place in both ERA and WHIIP after Week 1 of the shortened season – and the continuation of the season itself in some jeopardy – I was delighted to receive a trade offer last Friday.
A perennial contender, Doug Dennis of Baseball HQ, was interested in one of my remaining pitchers. Being the ever-so sensitive negotiator he is, the lawyer approached me ever so carefully.
“I am interested in Matt Boyd, but not really certain what you would want for him as I don’t know what your goals are for this season,” he wrote.
In reality, we both knew full well that the speed in which my team was circling the drain was accelerating, but at least he did not rub my nose in it.
Another aspect of the communications that impressed me was that Doug suggested several combinations, all of which appeared fair. Nothing can shut down a discussion faster than a lowball offer.
Among the proposals was a straight-up trade for Cardinals third base prospect Nolan Gorman. Though Gorman is a top 50 prospect in the game, he was still just the fifth-best minor leaguer on Dennis’ loaded roster, according to Baseball America prospect rankings.
So, Doug did not have to give up any of his brightest jewels and I acquired a potential future power hitter.
To adapt an old phrase, I can finish last in ERA and WHIP with or without Boyd!
With the season in the toilet, my challenge has shifted to worrying about how to differentiate the keepers from the non-keepers in a large group of minor leaguers – more than I can keep for 2021. Making matters worse is that this is occurring against the backdrop of no minor league games this season from which to evaluate prospects. Further, any news from team alternate site camps is almost non-existent.
But, hey, at least this is something to look forward to after my hopes of contending in 2020 are shot.
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most single-season points in the league’s two decades-plus of history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter
