One of the great philosophers of our time, Meatloaf, once said, “Two out of three ain’t bad.” As a fantasy baseball writer, podcaster, and social media poster, I have to make decisions and evaluate players, and many of those evaluations are public. What many people in my position often do not do is admit when they are wrong. I am going to do that today. Even though it is still early in the season, these good and bad calls should hold up. Two of these preseason predictions have turned out well for me, but one has blown up in my face. Here is this week’s “Three Strikes.”
Strike 1
I drafted Joe Musgrove (much earlier than his ADP) in two competitive leagues, after preaching about him during the shortened 2020 season, the offseason, and into spring training. I wrote articles about him and I discussed him on my podcast, explaining why he should be valued as a top 20 pitcher. Musgrove changed himself as a pitcher in 2020 by changing his pitch selection. By shifting away from leaning on his fastball in previous seasons to leaning on his curveball in 2020, Musgrove went from 8 K/0 to 12 K/9. He has maintained the 12 K/9 rate, showing that last season was not a fluke, and that he has developed as a pitcher. So far this season, he has the lowest walk rate and home run rate of his career. His HR/FB rate is consistent with his average, and is actually above the league average rate, which means we cannot attribute his success to luck in the home runs allowed department. Yes, his BABIP is a low .194, but because he is not giving up walks and his HR/FB rate is not elevated, the various advanced ERA sabermetrics do not project much regression. Other factors contributing to his success so far in 2021 include a 50% ground ball rate, a reduction in his fastball usage to 18%, an increase in his cutter usage from 9% last year to 24% this year, and a wipeout slider that has induced 24 strikeouts and a .057 batting average against. Musgrove has increased his velocity and spin rate on every pitch, and is continuing to evolve as a pitcher. Of course it is still early in the season, but there are signs that Musgrove has figured out how to sustain this type of success through pitch selection. I predicted Musgrove would crack the top 20 pitchers this season, and I think he could be even better than that by the end of the year.
Strike 2
One bold prediction that I made before the season was that the Boston Red Sox would finish above expectations. So far, this looks like a good call. Most projections had Boston finishing fourth in the AL East, ahead of only the Orioles. I expected a bounce-back season from J.D. Martinez after not being able to use in-game video last year. Martinez has not disappointed this season. His seven home runs are tied for the major league lead. He has a .370 batting average, which is buoyed by a high BABIP. He has the best strikeout rate and the best hard hit rate of his career. Regression is likely to come, but he should be excellent and significantly improved from 2020. The Sox are also getting brilliant seasons from Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and Christian Vazquez have all had solid starts to the season. Where the team lacked in 2020 was pitching depth, and presumably, that is the reason why projections expected them to finish so low in 2021. Eduardo Rodriguez has made a return to form with a 3.53 ERA and a 3.36 FIP. In fact, each of the team’s starters except Nick Pivetta have better FIPs than ERAs, suggesting this is a pitching staff that could get even better. The relief corps, aside from Josh Taylor and Darwinzon Hernandez, also looks impressive. The Red Sox could get Chris Sale back in the late summer months, which could propel them to further success. If they are in the Wild Card hunt in July, I expect they will trade for a more established closer to help lock down the bullpen.
As a team, the Red Sox lead the MLB in hits (213), doubles (54), total bases (351), batting average (.276), slugging (.455), and OPS. This is a potent offense, which could get even better. They also rank near the top in runs, RBI, and OBP. As a pitching staff, Boston is tied for second in wins (14) and have allowed the second fewest home runs in the MLB.
The Red Sox are much better than most anticipated and should remain near the top of the division for the rest of the season.
Strike 3
One player I was totally wrong about this offseason was Shohei Ohtani. I thought the Angels would limit his plate appearances when he pitched, because that is what they had done in the past, and I was afraid that would limit his offensive production. He is a pitcher that I have avoided in leagues for the last few years because of his limitations, whether because of injuries, limited plate appearances, or limited pitching appearances. I never saw him as a full-time player at either of his positions, and not good enough at either one to warrant a high draft slot in fantasy baseball.
The Angels, instead of limiting him as I thought they would, have allowed him to hit even on days he pitches, and he has excelled at the plate. He has the same number of home runs this season as he did in 2020, except he has done that in about 90 fewer plate appearances this year. His BABIP is only 20 points higher than his career average, so a .290 batting average is possible. He has the second highest maximum exit velocity and the highest barrel rate in the entire MLB. His average launch angle is 14 degrees resulting in an above average 40% fly ball rate while combined with an elevated HR/FB rate as a batter, he should continue to produce quite a few home runs, but probably not at his current pace. There are still a few negatives with Ohtani, especially on the pitching side. He is giving up 8.5 walks per 9 innings, which is a signal that he is having control issues. This is something both Ohtani and Angels manager Joe Maddon have spoken about and may improve with more time on the mound. His pitching BABIP is also a low .217, which is a sign that regression is coming. In fact, his xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all think that his current 3.29 ERA should be somewhere in the 3.70-4.50 range. Right now, he should be started exclusively as a batter until he can show better control as a pitcher, but he is a player that I regret avoiding, and I’m wishing I had rostered for this season.
