One conundrum every fantasy baseball manager faces is when to cut certain players. This decision is especially difficult when players who were high draft picks underperform. Oftentimes, fantasy baseball managers draft players who they expect are going to do well, whether their decision is based on past performance or what they think a player will do in the upcoming season.
The trouble comes when fantasy managers have to reckon with their expectations of the player as they evaluate how that player is doing, and whether they think they can turn it around or not. In today’s column, I want to help some fantasy managers with their decisions on what to do with top players who are off to bad starts.
Strike 1
Francisco Lindor has arguably been a top five fantasy short stop for most of his career, but because of a slow start this season, his value has definitely declined. As of this post, Lindor has a disappointing .200 batting average, two home runs, seven RBI, and 15 runs.
There are some areas for improvement, including a 27% hard contact rate, which would be the second lowest of his career if the season ended today. He also has a 48% ground ball rate, which is close to a career worst, and a 12% line drive rate, which is a career worst. It is obvious he is not making solid contact on the ball. The lack of hard contact seems to be suppressing his BABIP (.211), and ISO (.076). A drop in launch angle could be the root cause of some of these problems like the ground ball rate. It could also be causing a dip in his HR/FB rate. Only 5.6% of his fly balls are turning into home runs, compared to a 14% career rate. While many of these numbers may seem disappointing, they suggest that positive regression is on the horizon. As the season continues, the hard contact should climb, and as Lindor continues to adjust his swing, home runs will come.
Lindor’s plate discipline metrics also show that things should turn around for him. A 27% chase rate is the best of his career. He has the second best swinging strike rate of his career. His overall contact is the third best of his career. Lindor is making a ton of contact; the issue is that the contact is not the type of contact that produces good hits…yet.
Moving to a market like New York is not easy, even if Lindor is playing for the Mets. Perhaps he is pressing a little after signing a big contract that he is trying to fulfill, or perhaps he is simply adjusting to a new environment. Either way, the background data shows that Francisco Lindor is a top-notch hitter going through a rough patch. Those fantasy managers that roster Lindor should hold onto him. Otherwise, he is an excellent buy-low candidate.
Strike 2
One player who I am particularly passionate about is outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but not because I’m a fan. This is a player that a lot of managers target because of two particularly excellent years he’s had – 2017 and 2020. Aside from those years, he’s a decent player, but definitely not special.
In 2017, Ozuna hit 37 home runs and 124 RBI, scored 93 runs, and batted .312. Aside from that season, he has never hit more than 30 home runs, or had more than 80 runs or 90 RBI. His two best seasons, 2017 and 2020, were buoyed by a .355 and .391 BABIP respectively, compared to a .316 career BABIP. In those two seasons, his batting averages were .312 and .338 respectively. His best batting average outside of those two seasons is .288.
Ozuna fans could argue that the high hard contact rate and the high line drive rate in 2020 could legitimize the batting average, but the same cannot be said for 2017, where those metrics were more in line with career norms. All signs point to 2017 being a fluke year for Ozuna, whose results were more because of luck than actual player performance, and 2020 was such a small sample size that if the season had gone on, he may have regressed.
Despite good line drive numbers this season, Marcell Ozuna has a low .237 BABIP. One obvious problem is a 25% hard contact rate and a 37% hard hit rate. Despite improved discipline numbers, he is not making good contact. There are signs of improvement that make Ozuna’s outlook comparable to Francisco Lindor’s, but there is a major difference between the two.
Francisco Lindor’s best years were not BABIP driven, so the value that fantasy managers have on Ozuna is misplaced. Although many want to value Ozuna as the 2017 and 2020 versions of the player, he should be valued more so along the lines of what he has done in his six other seasons in the majors.
Fantasy managers who roster Marcell Ozuna have two choices – expect that he gets the average up to .260-.270 and hits around 25 home runs, or try to find a trade partner to unload him. Fantasy managers who do not roster him should just stay away.
Strike 3
The hype around Luis Castillo has driven his value up over the last few years. He has always possessed an enticing mix of velocity and strikeout potential. Fans and fantasy baseball managers have seen the potential play out to the tune of a career 3.79 ERA and a 9.82 K/9 rate. Those numbers and the hype surrounding Castillo drove his draft value up this season, and fantasy managers now have to decide what to do with him after a horrible start to 2021.
Castillo is 1-4 with a 6.95 K/9 rate (the lowest of his career) and a 6.42 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. Despite the rough start, there are a few positives. His .357 BABIP is a sign that he has pitched into some bad luck. One thing that can drive up the BABIP for a pitcher is a bad defense behind him, but that is not the case for Castillo. The Reds defense is middle of the pack, suggesting that the BABIP has more to do with luck than other factors. His 2.67 BB/9 is close to a career best. Because of the low walk rate and the high BABIP, most of the advanced ERA metrics this his 6+ ERA should be in the mid-4 range.
Some other good signs are that the launch angle, hard hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity metrics he is allowing this season are within normal ranges. He has also improved his spin rate on all of his pitches.
Despite those positives, there are some worrying metrics behind Castillo’s performance. His K/9 rate has been between 9 and 11 in three of his four years prior to this season, so the dip to under 7 K/9 is concerning. A potential cause of this decline in strikeouts could be a decline in velocity. Castillo has lost one to two miles per hour on all of his pitches.
Some other issues include pitch selection and pitch performance. Castillo has thrown his fastball and changeup more this year than last year, and both pitches are doing worse this season. His fastball and sinker are catching too much of the plate, and his sinker has turned into his worst pitch by far. In 2020, Castillo’s sinker had a .263 batting average against, which has spiked to a .483 batting average against this season.
While Castillo could see improvement over the course of the season, perhaps to a mid-4 ERA, the decline in strikeouts will limit his value. Most of his value is based on strikeouts, and if he is not going to have 200+ strikeouts, it will be a major hit to what he is worth in fantasy baseball. Fantasy managers have also come to expect a mid-3 ERA floor, so a mid-4 ERA also detracts from his value.
For fantasy managers who roster Castillo in shallow leagues (anything smaller than 10 teams), he is worth a cut right now. There are so many pitchers available in shallow leagues, and streaming is a viable option. Chances are he will not be picked up right away, so he could be scooped up later if he turns things around. In deeper leagues, he should be given a few more starts before cutting him loose. If he still struggles in the next two or three weeks, though, then release him.
