Being successful in fantasy baseball depends on several elements including drafting well, making savvy trades, paying close attention to matchups, and setting your lineups on time. One thing that the best fantasy managers can do setting them apart from others is consistently finding “diamond in the rough” players. These are players who are performing at a high level, that are flying under the radar, players who are just beginning a hot streak, or players who had little-to-no expectations for fantasy success. Today I will explore which players fit that profile, and why they should be rostered in more leagues.
Strike 1
Detroit outfielder Robbie Grossman is currently rostered in 55% of ESPN leagues, up from 21% a week ago. Well-informed fantasy managers had already rostered him at that point and now more people are jumping on the bandwagon…and they should!
One of the most important things to look for in a valuable fantasy asset is how much playing time that player gets. This is true of any fantasy sport – fantasy managers want players who play often, which allows for a higher chance of production from that player. Robbie Grossman has appeared in each of the Tigers’ 43 games to start the season, primarily playing left or right field.
Some highlights for Grossman include his 16.4% walk rate, which is the best of his career, making him valuable in points leagues. He also has the best exit velocity (89.3 MPH), max exit velocity (110.9 MPH), barrel rate (9.3%), and hard hit rate (38.9%) of his career. His 32% ground ball rate marks a career low for him, while a 46% fly ball rate marks a career high. This is good news for power as fly balls have a chance of turning into home runs, but hampers batting average.
Robbie Grossman’s plate discipline numbers are also impressive. He is making contact on 81% of pitches, and only striking out swinging 7% of the time. While those are not career bests, they’re signs of a decent hitter who should be able to continue having success at the plate.
I have some interesting Robbie Grossman trivia. What do Ronald Acuna, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, and Mike Trout all have in common? They all have fewer steals than Robbie Grossman. He is tied for the third most steals in baseball at seven, and of all the players with whom he is tied or behind in steals, only four of them have not been caught stealing – and Grossman is one of them.
This is the definition of a diamond in the rough type player, and he should be widely rostered. He will not blow anyone away with his batting average, but he is an under the radar player with a chance to be extremely productive.
Strike 2
Another player who is flying under the radar is Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford. Typically, Crawford is the type of player that is added in fantasy leagues as an injury replacement for a few weeks and is not a fantasy stalwart. Like Robbie Grossman though, Crawford does have opportunity. His defensive prowess at short keeps him in the lineup every day, and he has used his opportunity to be surprisingly productive this season.
Crawford is only rostered in 55% of ESPN leagues, which is up from 21% last week, but smart managers would have already picked him up. If he is not rostered in leagues at this point, he should be. He is in a four-way tie with Trea Turner, Javy Baez, and Fernando Tatis Jr. for the lead in home runs for short stops, with 10.
Most might consider this production a fluke for Crawford and choose to ignore him. Others may not believe he continues his success at the plate, and may be unwilling to part with other players to add him. Despite these reservations, fantasy managers should be rushing to add him because he has made tangible adjustments to his game that have improved his statistical output.
Crawford increased his launch angle this season, and has seen a marked increase in fly balls. Additionally, his HR/FB rate has increased from his average 9.8% over his career to 28% this season. That may seem fluky, but he also has more than doubled his career average barrel rate, and has improved his exit velocity, max exit velocity, and hard hit rate. These data points are very similar to what he did in 2015, when he hit 21 home runs, except his launch angle and the fly ball rates are higher while his ground ball rate is lower. This could potentially mean we see closer to a 25-30 home run season from him, if he can keep up the consistency in his contact.
One interesting statistic for Crawford is that he has a .240 BABIP and a .248 batting average. His career BABIP is .294, and his career batting average is .250. This could mean that as his BABIP rises, his batting average could improve. One reason why his BABIP might be so low is because it only counts balls that a batter puts in play, and Crawford has hit 10 home runs, which do not count towards BABIP. This could be one of Crawford’s best seasons, as his BABIP suggests he is closer to a .270 hitter than his current .248 AVG.
This is a player who should be added immediately in every league.
Strike 3
Rich Hill is another player who should be added right now in every fantasy baseball league. He is only rostered in 42% of ESPN leagues, and presumably is being added as a streamer or fill in pitcher. In most seasons, this would be the case, but he is healthy so far this season and still has some gas left in the tank.
Most fantasy managers may think back to his first four starts this season and have some hesitation in adding him. In each of those starts, Hill gave up four earned runs, at least four hits, struck out no more than seven batters, and only surpassed four innings once.
Since then, he has been a different pitcher. In his following four starts, he had three quality starts, gave up eight hits total, and had a game of nine strikeouts and a game of 10 strikeouts. He has improved his ERA on the season to 4.26, but remains a slight risk in WHIP, since he’s walked at least one batter in all but one of his games this season.
Why is now the right time to add Rich Hill in fantasy leagues? He has a 9.7 K/9 rate, his FIP/xFIP/xERA/SIERA all think his ERA should be closer to mid-3 than mid-4, and he has been able to limit hard contact. Batters only make hard contact against him 1/3 of the time, and barrel up the ball only 8% of the time. Hill has been able to do this by altering his pitch selection.
He has been following the trend most pitchers are following lately of decreasing fastball usage. He has decreased his fastball usage each of the last four years, while increasing the usage of his slider and cutter. Hill’s cutter and curveball have performed exceptionally well this season, and those are obvious reasons why batters are having a hard time making good contact on his pitches.
Even as an 11 year veteran, Rich Hill is improving, and is more than worth a roster spot in your league.
