We all know the saying “Hindsight is 20/20,” and as fantasy managers we always have moments in the season we wish we could re-do. There are times when we start one player over another, and the player we started goes 0-for-4 and the guy on the bench hits two home runs. Sometimes those decisions could be the difference between winning and losing matchups.
Today what I want to do is look back at my draft, knowing what I know now, and see what choices I wish I could take back
While there is not much good that can come from this today, it is a helpful exercise in the offseason, because we learn from our mistakes. During my offseason draft prep, I always look at my draft from the previous year to see what worked and what did not, and what I can do better in my upcoming drafts.
Strike 1
Not taking Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as my first pick is the main thing that I wish I could take back. For league context, this is in a super-competitive eight-team head-to-head categories keeper league, where the first 4 rounds of the draft are auto-drafted keepers. I kept Trea Turner, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, and Anthony Rendon. Not taking Vlad first in the draft does not mean I missed out him for only this year. I likely missed out him for years to come because he will be kept year over year.
My first pick after our keeper rounds was Houston third baseman Alex Bregman. I chose him because historically he had been an excellent hitter. In his three full MLB seasons he never had under a .284 batting average. He takes walks, rarely strikes out, and is always on base. In those three seasons, 2017-2019, Bregman was top 20 in total home runs and total RBI, and top five in total runs. While Bregman never had elite hard contact, his discipline was a huge selling point.
Vlad, on the other hand, did have good hard contact metrics, but disappointed in 2019 and 2020 after being hyped up so much. One major problem for him in those seasons was a low launch angle, which led to a 49.6% ground ball rate in 2019 and a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020. There is definitely still room for improvement in terms of Vlad’s launch angle, and hard contact, which makes the power potential even more enticing. The lesson here is that putting stock in past performance is okay, but I should also put more weight into projections and buy into the hype a little more.
While Vlad should come back to earth some – his .349 BABIP and 33.8% HR/FB rate are likely unsustainable – he has developed into a very disciplined hitter, and one that should contend for MVP every year. There is a good chance he may win the AL MVP award this year, while Bregman has been on the IL twice. Moreover, while most expected a 30 home run season for Bregman, Vlad may have 30 homers by the All-Star break.
Strike 2
Part of my strategy (in the same league as above) was to draft a few of the top closers – players who without a doubt would be their team’s main closer – to win ERA, Saves, and WHIP on a weekly basis. I drafted Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, and Edwin Diaz all back-to back, but I missed out on Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, who is having great season.
Looking back at the way the draft unfolded, I realized I could have grabbed Martinez in one of the rounds I took a closer and probably still have drafted the same closer a round or two later.
I was one of the people who bought into J.D. Martinez’s explanation of his down year in 2020, which was that he did not have in-game video and that greatly affected his performance. Last season he batted .213 and only hit seven home runs. While a rough 2020 certainly suppressed expectations for this season, I still expected him to do well – perhaps 30 home runs and a .275 batting average – so I passed on him, thinking I could get him a few rounds later. Unfortunately for me, he wasn’t there when I wanted to take him, and he has had quite the resurgent season this year.
Martinez is not going to hit 45 home runs this year, like he did in 2017, but a .290 batting average with 30-35 home runs is certainly realistic. So far this season, his BABIP is up a little, although not a crazy amount, which is somewhat helping his batting average. All of J.D.’s hard contact metrics look excellent and back up the power surge this year. He’s increased his hard-hit percent and hard contact percent from last season.
One final thing that points to Martinez having a solid season this year (and making me wish I had drafted him) is that his HR/FB rate is actually lower than normal, which means there is a good chance that more home runs are coming.
If any of us knew he would have a season like this, he would have gone a lot earlier in just about every draft.
Strike 3
The last player I wish I had drafted is Reds outfielder Jesse Winker. Winker went late in the draft (remember this is an eight-team league, so we only roster 200 players), but he is killing it this season. There are plenty of players I would trade in for him, and I have tried to make offers to trade for him, although unsuccessfully. Part of the reason that many likely passed on him was the thought that the Reds’ outfield would be crowded and he would continue to be a platoon player. Including his rookie year of 2017, he has never had more than 384 plate appearances in a season. As of June 24, he is about 100 plate appearances away from surpassing that number because he is finally getting the bulk of the playing time, and he is running with it.
Most of what Winker doing looks legitimate, with the one exception being his .333 batting average. That is definitely BABIP driven (.359 2021 BABIP compared to a .319 career BABIP), but the power is for real.
Winker’s HR/FB rate this season is only a hair above his career mark. One piece of regret is not paying enough attention to the flashes of power he showed in 2020. I should have taken more note then, and I am definitely taking note of what he is doing this season.
He tripled his barrel rate from 2019 to 2020, and he is maintaining that increase this season. Winker also has elite hard contact this season, backing up an increase in home runs. His 51.7% hard-hit rate is 12th best in the MLB for qualified hitters.
After this season, I am sure we will see Jesse Winker jumping up fantasy draft boards ahead of the 2022 season.
